Out of the Rough: the Memorial Tournament (2025)

There are a few golf courses in the world that come to mind when you hear the term ‘picturesque.’

Of course, Augusta National is one of them but not far down the list would be Muirfield Village, the host of this week’s the Memorial Tournament. 

We’re back for another installment of one of the most storied non-majors on the PGA Tour schedule in the Memorial Tournament.

Known as “Jack’s Place,” Muirfield is the crowning achievement of Jack Nicklaus’ post-playing career.

Although an already prestigious event, annually being one of the biggest drawing non-major events of the year, the added element of the Signature Event status ensures the World’s best will be on tap this week. 

This week serves as the penultimate Signature Event of the season, with next month’s Travelers Championship being the final.

This tournament dates back to 1976 and as previously mentioned, sits upon one of the most breathtaking and visually-appealing backdrops the sport of golf has to offer.

The Field

Same song, different week.

At this point of the season, we know what to expect out of these limited fields at Signature Events.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will once again headline this week’s field, fresh off a disappointing (to his standards) home-game at last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Scheffler has won two-of-his-last-three starts (THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson and PGA Championship) coming in.

Scheffler is also the defending champion of this event, having topped Collin Morikawa by a stroke a season ago to add to his historic season.

Other notable names teeing it up this week include Xander Schauffele, Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley and Sepp Straka.

Other former winners of the Memorial Tournament teeing it up this week include Viktor Hovland (2023,) Patrick Cantlay (2021 & 2019,) Matsuyama (2014) and Matt Kuchar (2013.)

The Course

Success at Muirfield Village is simple. Hit the fairways to avoid the long penal rough, hit pure iron shots and have a strong around-the-green game. Simple enough, right?

It plays as a par-72 at 7,571 yards while featuring 68 sand bunkers and having water in play on 13 of the holes.

Muirfield Village is known for its long rough that is some of the most penal on all of the PGA Tour. 

It is nearly impossible to hold the firm, fast and tight Bentgrass greens while hitting from the rough. This adds a massive incentive on hitting the fairway.

It also adds an emphasis to around-the-green play with the inability to hold the greens from such positions.

This course also features the longest proximity-to-the-hole from inside 100 yards from the rough and the second lowest going-for-the-green rate of any course in the regular rotation. Additionally, it features the second lowest birdie rate from the rough.

With the need to play from the fairway, players must be precise with their approach shots and hit the necessary landing areas to hold the greens.

Despite the greens being firm and fast, they don’t play hard at all. Actually, Murifield has the third lowest three-putt rate of any regular PGA Tour course and is inside the top five in makes from five feet to ten feet. In 2021, the field made 89-percent of its putts from inside ten feet.

In all Muirfield Village plays more to major conditions than not.

Along with the known long-penal rough, another unique aspect to Muirfield is the fact that all four par-fives are the only holes on the entire course to play at a scoring average below par. Scoring low on these holes is a must for any potential winner.

The greenside sand traps annually result in the longest proximity-to-the-hole lengths of any course on the regular PGA Tour rotation. You combine that with these lightning-fast greens, you have a big focus on those who are among the Tour’s best in sand saves percentage.

With all of this added, Muirfield also sits inside the top five of courses with the lowest scrambling percentage at just 53-percent.

It has been a few seasons since Muirfield had undergone a massive renovation as work began directly following the conclusion of the 2020 Memorial Tournament.

Come 2021, a full 100 yards was added to the course, pushing it to that 7,571 previously mentioned yard mark. 

Brand new greens complexes were among the restorations as well.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, there is a 25-percent chance of precipitation across all four days this week. Temperatures will be at the lowest on Thursday, beginning at 70-degrees. Temperatures will gradually increase each day, before peaking at 76-degrees some Sunday. Winds will begin Thursday at ten miles-per-hour before leveling out at 11 miles-per-hour across the final three days. In all, not a bad four days for golf.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) / Hit Fairway Percentage

• Strokes Gained Putting on Bentgrass (SG: PUTT Bentgrass)

• Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%)

• Scrambling / Scrambling from the Rough

• Par Five Average Scoring

• Bogey Avoidance

• Approach Shots from 175-200 Yards

• Sand Saves Percentage

DFS Suggestions

In tournaments that feature Scottie Scheffler ($13,300) for the foreseeable future, just know that I endorse any play of him in your DFS lineup at any price. He’s $2,400 more expensive than Xander Schauffele ($10,900.) I’m going to stop wasting my time and playing Scheffler as my official $10,000-plus play (unless specified) moving forward.

$9,000-$9,000

One of my absolute favorite plays this week is Corey Conners ($9,100.) He is currently fifth on Tour in scrambling from the rough, ninth in GIR%, 11th in SG: OTT, 12th in hit fairway percentage, 28th in bogey avoidance, 39th in SG: APP, 46th in scrambling, 52nd in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards, 83rd in par-five average scoring, 107th in SG: ATG, 139th in sand saves percentage and 143rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Conners placed 19th recently at the PGA Championship. Prior to that he placed 11th at the Truist Championship, 49th at the RBC Heritage, eighth at the Masters Tournament, 18th at the Valero Texas Open, eighth at the Valspar Championship, sixth at THE PLAYERS Championship and third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Conners placed 20th here a season ago, missed the cut in 2023, 13th in 2022, 53rd in 2021 and 22nd in 2020. He is also on my betting card at +3300. Also consider Collin Morikawa ($9,900.) Morikawa is currently second on Tour in hit fairway percentage, seventh in SG: APP, 22nd in both SG: OTT and par-five average scoring, 25th in GIR%, 46th in bogey avoidance, 59th in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards, 76th in SG: ATG, 105th in scrambling, 115th in scrambling from the rough, 135th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 158th in sand saves percentage. Morikawa has been out of form coming into this week. He placed 50th in his latest outing at the PGA Championship. Prior to that he placed 17th at the Truist Championship, missed the cut at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and 54th at the RBC Heritage. Prior to that stretch however, he placed 14th at the Masters Tournament, tenth at THE PLAYERS Championship and second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Morikawa was the runner-up here a season ago and missed the cut in 2022. He was also the runner-up in 2021 and placed 48th in 2020. 

$8,000-$8,900

Leading off this price range is Sepp Straka ($8,800.) Straka missed the cut in his latest outing at the PGA Championship but prior to that, won the Truist Championship, placed 12th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, 13th at the RBC Heritage, 28th at the Valspar Championship, 14th at THE PLAYERS Championship, fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 11th at the Cognizant Classic. He also won The American Express earlier this season. Straka placed fifth here a season ago, 16th in 2023, 45th in 2022, missed the cut in 2021 and placed 61st in 2020. Straka is currently first on Tour in both GIR% and par-five average scoring, second in SG: APP, fifth in bogey avoidance, eighth in hit fairway percentage, 18th in sand saves percentage, 26th in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards, 52nd in SG: OTT, 79th in scrambling, 99th in scrambling from the rough, 109th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 126th in SG: ATG. Also consider Russell Henley ($8,400.) Henley also missed the cut in his last outing at the PGA Championship and placed 46th at the Truist Championship. He placed eighth at the RBC Heritage, 30th at THE PLAYERS Championship, won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, sixth at the Cognizant Classic, 39th at The Genesis Invitational and fifth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the season. Henley placed 27th here a season ago and 16th in 2023. He is currently fifth on Tour in GIR%, ninth in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards, 13th in hit fairway percentage, 15th in SG: ATG, 23rd in bogey avoidance, 28th in SG: APP, 63rd in sand saves percentage, 67th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 76th in scrambling from the rough, 103rd in scrambling, 107th in par-five average scoring and 128th in SG: OTT. He is also on my betting card at +5000.

$7,000-$7,900

First up in this price range is Aaron Rai ($7,600.) Rai missed the cut in his last outing here in 2023 and placed 26th in 2022. Rai missed the cut last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge but prior to that placed 19th at the PGA Championship, 23rd at the Truist Championship, 18th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, 38th at the RBC Heritage and 27th at the Masters Tournament. He is currently first on Tour in hit fairway percentage, 16th in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards, 19th in SG: APP, 26th in SG: OTT, 29th in par-five average scoring, 70th in bogey avoidance, 94th in scrambling from the rough, 104th in SG: ATG, 106th in sand saves percentage, 129th in scrambling and 147th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Also consider J.J. Spaun ($7,500.) Spaun has played here just once over the past five seasons, placing 30th in 2023. He’s fresh off a sixth place finish at last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge. He also placed 37th at the PGA Championship, 17th at the Truist Championship, 42nd at the RBC Heritage, 50th at the Masters Tournament, second at THE PLAYERS Championship, 31st at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and second at the Cognizant Classic. Spaun is currently fourth on Tour in SG: APP, 14th in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards, 24th in GIR%, 31st in bogey avoidance, 51st in SG: OTT, 64th in hit fairway percentage, 70th in sand saves percentage, 75th in par-five average scoring, 92nd in scrambling, 119th in SG: ATG, 120th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 141st in scrambling from the rough. He is also on my betting card at +7500.

$6,900-

My first play in this final price range is Bud Cauley ($6,800.) He is currently sixth on Tour in sand saves percentage, 23rd in both SG: APP and scrambling, 42nd in SG: OTT, 44th in bogey avoidance, 65th in SG: ATG, 66th in scrambling from the rough, 67th in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards, 78th in GIR%, 90th in hit fairway percentage and 95th in both SG: PUTT Bermuda and par-five average scoring. Cauley placed third last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 72nd at the PGA Championship, 28th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, 32nd at the RBC Heritage, fifth at the Valero Texas Open, fourth at the Valspar Championship and sixth at THE PLAYERS Championship. He placed 44th here in 2020. Also consider Ryan Gerard ($6,700.) Gerard is currently 30th in SG: APP, 48th in scrambling, 57th in both hit fairway percentage and bogey avoidance, 61st in sand saves percentage, 71st in SG: OTT, 73rd in SG: ATG, 77th in scrambling from the rough, 78th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 90th in GIR%, 107th in par-five average scoring and 109th in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards. Gerard made the cut last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge and prior to that placed eighth at the PGA Championship, 42nd at the Truist Championship, 12th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, 27th at the RBC Heritage, second at the Valero Texas Open and ninth at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Gerard will be making his tournament debut this week.

Betting Card

• Ludvig Aberg (+2500)

• Corey Conners (+3300)

• Russell Henley (+5000)

• J.J. Spaun (+7500)

• Davis Thompson (+11000)

Ludvig Aberg (+2500)

In a field that doesn’t include Rory McIlroy, getting Aberg at anything over 20/1 is a steal in my book. I’ve been on record since his victory at The Genesis Invitational saying that if there is ever a 20 next to Aberg’s name, I’m going to bet it. A horrible final few holes took him out of the running at the Masters Tournament the last time I played my own logic. We’ll see if he betters that this week. He placed fifth here a season ago in his tournament and course debut. He has been out of the form as of late, missing the cut at the PGA Championship, placing 60th at the Truist Championship and 54th at the RBC Heritage. He did place seventh at the Masters Tournament, 22nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and won The Genesis Invitational on the season. Aberg is currently 19th on Tour in SG: OTT, 24th in sand saves percentage, 83rd in par-five average scoring, 87th in scrambling, 103rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 116th in hit fairway percentage, 123rd in GIR%, 124th in SG: ATG, 134th in bogey avoidance, 136th in SG: APP, 155th in scrambling from the rough and 166th in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards. 

Davis Thompson (+11000)

Thompson is currently second on Tour in proximity to the hole from 175-200 yards, 17th in par-five average scoring, 24th in SG: OTT, 35th in GIR%, 43rd in SG: ATG, 48th in hit fairway percentage, 98th in sand saves percentage, 99th in scrambling, 111th in both SG: PUTT Bermuda and bogey avoidance, 112th in SG: APP and 115th in scrambling from the rough. Thompson comes into this week on the back of back-to-back missed cuts, which is baked into the value. Prior to that he placed 23rd at the Truist Championship, 27th at the RBC Heritage, 46th at the Masters Tournament, 27th at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and tenth at THE PLAYERS Championship. He placed 27th here last year and placed 56th in 2023.