Andrew's UNC Health Championship (KFT) Preview

With school holidays once again sapping my time (do children ever go to school for more than two weeks at a stretch?) our time together must be brief, and there are two tournaments to turn to. So, alas, brevity.

First on the menu is the Korn Ferry Tour, for which prices were available in a timely manner. Last week saw two of our selections missed the cut, whilst we suffered Trace Crowe hovering in the “looks like a good finish but uncompetitive” zone – nine bogeys and a double keeping the first three rounds from putting him close, before he stepped onto the par train on the fifth hole of the final day. Pontus Nyholm won in a playoff over Johnny Keefer, two players who are highly likely to gain tour cards. It’s a surprise that Nyholm is now in his fourth full season on the KFT without winning a card yet, but plenty of good amateurs do better for that kind of (ahem) seasoning before they gain promotion, and he might too. Keefer still looks like the classiest operator on the KFT this season and, with Neal Shipley, the likeliest PGA winner.

The Tournament

The good news for those of us with other responsibilities as well as employment is that both events this week are well-established. The frustration is that I’d like to spend a little more time on this KFT event, which is one of my favourites. I’ve referenced it before as the rare exception among courses in the U.S. – a genuinely challenging and architecturally interesting KFT host. We see them early in the season on the brief international swing (and seem to have another with Tulum in Mexico) but this is as tough as it’ll get from now until we go to French Lick for the Tour Championship.

I think that tougher courses are good, especially at this level, not just because they're more interesting but because, by being more selective, they produce the best golfers. I think that's a huge part of the success of the HPT as a nursery, and the single biggest problem for the KFT. With that in mind, what’s curious is that, in the two years that we’ve been at Raleigh Country Club, the leaderboard hasn’t been especially predictive of PGA success, whilst the earlier Wakefield Country Club threw up some winners who’d go on to be stars. 2023 saw Jorge Fernandes-Valdes beat Trent Phillips in a playoff at -13, whilst last year Kaito Onishi got to -8 and in doing so finished a shot ahead of Max McGreevy. There’s plenty of challenge here, and the course is now longer than last year – coming in at 7,394 yards – up from 6,938 – for a par 70. Weather shouldn’t be too much of a factor, with a bit of wind in the middle of the day on Friday (no obvious draw advantage) and Saturday, and rain on Thursday and Friday afternoons a possibility.

What will cause the players trouble is not just the significant length, but the large, sloped greens, the heavy bunkering and the doglegs requiring a range of shot shaping. This is a Donald Ross design (there’s a tedious amount of chatter over whether it was his last; it was certainly late, in the 1940s) and it was expensively restored to the original vision and lengthened before welcoming the KFT for the first time. The course is on rolling ground so there’s lots of uneven lies and elevation changes to take into account.

We’re looking for excellent putters and scramblers who can keep making pars, and we’re looking for a bit of length and some serious accuracy from tee-to-green to ensure that some birdie opportunities arise. Players with enough experience and creativity to move the ball both ways in the air and with some experience in Carolina would be a huge advantage. I’m looking at previous events here, but I’m also looking for players who went well in Panama or in Mexico, two similarly tough challenges this season.

What we’re not doing, and this took some thinking about, is backing anyone at the very top of the market. Seonghyeon Kim is an old friend but he lost a 54-hole lead with a second weak fourth round in a row and this is probably too long for him. Mitch Meissner appealed but again, length is a concern and the price was far shorter than I expected. Johnny Keefer certainly appealed but again, he’s far too short a price for my taste, and backing up is hard, especially where courses are so different. Otherwise, although there were lots to think about (and the previous leaderboards show that the range of players who can have a big week is long) my list came together fairly easily.

Selections

First onto my team was Neal Shipley, who I think is being underrated as arguably the best tough-course player in the field. Yes, his finishes in Panama (9th) and Mexico (19th) are a useful sign, but he’s also played in two Majors, making both cuts and finishing 26th at the Pinehurst (Carolina!) U.S. Open. He’s already won this season, at Lakewood, but I think he’ll have at least one more win and a tough, long course that tests every club in the bag is the right sort of location.

Second of my selections is Shad Tuten. The Georgian has been plying his trade on this tour for a while now, and it is a surprise that he hasn’t won either a tournament or a card, but he has played awfully well in patches and demonstrates the depth of talent in these fields. You won’t see him leading many statistical categories, but he’s solid in everything, and that breadth of skills and experience comes to the fore in tough events. Hence his third place in Mexico, and his eighth and fourth on this course the twice it has been played. He can improve again.

Finally, I’m returning to Sudarshan Yellamaraju, who won without my money aboard in the Bahamas despite me being a long-time admirer of his. The market seems to think that was a fluke, but he’s still the tenth-ranked player on the KFT, is fifth in bogey avoidance, fourth in par-3 scoring and second in par-4 scoring. Sounds pretty ideal for a tough par 70 to me. I think because he’s young and doesn’t have a coach, he’s seen as wild, but everything I’ve heard from him and everything I’ve seen from results is a player who is thoughtful about his game and works hard on it. He hasn’t played the tough events this season, but has returned to form with a sixth two starts ago and 23rd this week, and was 14th in this event last year.

• Neal Shipley, 45/1, 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365.

• Shad Tuten, 66/1, 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Sporting Index.

• Sudarshan Yellamaraju, 75/1, 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365.