Andrew's Tulum Championship (KFT) Preview

A sickeningly poor week last week with all three of our picks failing to make the cut, made worse by Johnny Keefer winning. It was hardly a surprise, and I’ve been expecting a win at some point, but it was a shame not to be on board when he got over the line – he’s proving versatile as well as very good.

Without much more looking into the mirror, let’s head on to a new course and a big improvement to the Korn Ferry Tour!

The Tournament

We’ve headed south of the border to Tulum in Mexico, on the Yucatan peninsula and not far from Cancun. The good news is that the weather is going to be very good, with no wind or rain to worry about. The better news is that this shows signs of being a very good course. We’re actually in Mayakoba country (near enough) but unfortunately this isn’t a Greg Norman design – you have to go to LIV for your Norman fix this week – but it is a Robert Trent Jones Jnr course and it has proved to be a bit of a beast. 

Water is in play all over the place, with the course taken from land where a quarry met a jungle, so it is hilly, tree-lined and with water throughout. Although we’re incredibly close to the sea this isn’t a coastal course per se, another similarity with Mayakoba. The main reason to be excited about this is the leaderboard from the PGA Tour of the Americas visit. Even more than the KFT, these boys tend to go low, and it was won at -4 in a playoff. I can’t see any evidence that the weather was poor, I think it is just a tricky course. We’re at sea level and playing to a par-72 7,272, so it is far from fearsomely long.

Players who are strong from tee to green, avoid bogeys and have a good record in tropical or Latin American courses and on tougher courses are the ideal sorts this week. With Keefer again too short to back, and a no S.H. Kim, I didn’t find it too hard to get a shortlist together, although leaving out Petr Hruby after he showed signs of life was tough, and Myles Creighton continues to look the sort to win on this tour on tricky courses.

Selections

My first and easiest pick was surprising only because I didn’t expect the odds I was able to get. Davis Shore is one of the form players on the KFT this year, ranking 24th on his second year on the Tour after coming off the PGA Tour of the Americas. That followed a solid college career at Alabama and it was his last start on PGAT that saw him finish second, losing in a playoff, at this very course. Since then he’s scared the leaderboard on a number of occasions, including third (Bahamas Classic) and seventh (Argentina) this year. He’s not the longest player but he scores well on the par 3's and 4's and avoids bogeys – this tough challenge on a course he knows and plays well will be ideal.

Next up is a more popular choice, but for excellent reasons, in Mitchell Meissner. He comes here with six top 25 finishes from his nine starts to date, including a seventh last week and a fourth at Astara. It is notable that his best finish before this year came at the fearsomely tough Raleigh CC (he was fourth at -4, a result he’d match in Bogata this year.) He ranks seventh for greens in regulation, fifth for scrambling, fourth for bogey avoidance and first for par-3 scoring. Now, there’s more to life than stats, but he really does set up perfectly for a breakthrough win here.

Finally, I’m turning to a Mexican native (I wrote “local boy” and then checked my prejudices and my facts – he’s from San Miguel de Allende which is 1,824km away and a 23 hour drive) in Emilio Gonzalez. Of course there are benefits as well as pressures to playing close to home, but that’s a small part of my reason for this pick. He’s simply a young man well-suited to the challenges this course will offer. As well as ranking 25th in bogey avoidance (and playing a nice accurate game from tee to green, as witness his 12th place in par four scoring) he goes well on these sorts of tough, hot courses. His recent form includes fifth at the Bahamas Classic, 11th at Astara Chile, and sixth at the Club Car and he’s played this course before (top 20 in the Bupa Tour Championship back in 2022 when he wa a much lesser player.) With four top ten finishes and another five in the top 25 since the start of 2024, he’s won of the most consistently excellent players on this tour and with a “home” tournament set up to suit, he can thrive.

• Davis Shore, 1pt e/w, 80/1, 1/5 odds 6 places, Sporting Index.

• Mitchell Meissner, 1pt e/w, 33/1, 1/5 odds 6 places, Coral.

• Emilio Gonzalez, 1pt e/w, 66/1, 1/5 odds 6 places, Skybet.