Out of the Rough: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson (2025)

With just two weeks shy of the PGA Championship, the PGA Tour turns its attention to TPC Craig Ranch and THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson in McKinney, Texas.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson was first played in 1944 and won by legendary five-time major champion Byron Nelson in which the event is now named after.

The event used the name Texas Victory Open from 1944 to 1968 when it was renamed the Byron Nelson Golf Classic. The tournament has been associated with Nelson’s name ever since.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson had played within the limits of Dallas County for all of its existence but until 2021 when it was moved to TPC Craig Ranch. This will be the fifth year that TPC Craig Ranch hosts this event.

This event has also served as the PGA Tour’s leading fundraiser for charity, having raised $190 million to date for Momentous Institute, established by the Salesmanship Club of Dallas to help support the mental health of children, families and communities. 

The Field

Sitting center of a seven week stretch of the PGA Tour’s schedule that includes two majors and two Signature Events, it’s understandable that most of the PGA Tour’s top-tier-talent will remain idle this week.

However, being played in Texas, those local to the event will tee it up in preparation for the PGA Championship in two weeks time.

Of those native to Texas, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will be teeing it up this week.

He’ll be joined by the likes of Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim and Will Zalatoris as Texas residents and favorites to win this week.

Other notable names teeing it up this week include Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Keith Mitchell, Si Woo Kim and Sam Burns.

Taylor Pendrith used this event a season ago to claim his maiden PGA Tour victory, edging Ben Kohles by a stroke. 

Other former winners of this event playing this week include Sung Kang (2019.)

The Course

TPC Craig Ranch plays as a par 71 at roughly 7,569 yards.

The course was funded by McKinney businessman, David Craig, who spent $30 million in 2004 to develop a golf course that one day would host the Byron Nelson tournament. Along the way, PGA legend Tom Weiskopf was the one who designed the track.

TPC Craig Ranch is one of the easiest courses on all of the PGA Tour. The last three events held at TPC Craig Ranch were won by Pendrith at -23 (2024), Jason Day at -23 (2023) and K.H. Lee at -26 (2022.)

Rowlett Creek serves as one of the only defenses that this course offers as it is intertwined with 14 holes on the course. Although, water doesn’t have much of an impact this week unless drives get away from golfers.

Along with Rowlett Creek, the course's main line of defense is the wind and if it is blowing, the importance of accuracy increases.

The 17th hole here at TPC Craig Ranch was revamped prior to the 2024 edition and now features bleachers behind the green along with 41 hospitality units that can now host 6,000 spectators. The goal of the additions is to create a similar atmosphere to that of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale.

Prior to this year's installment, six tee boxes were changes, adding roughly 100 yards to the course from previous playings.

Additionally, the Zoysia fairways were changed to ryegrass. One of the par-fives was coverted to a par-four, bringing the course from a Par-72 to a Par-71.

Distance off the tee will give those bombers a slight advantage. The average driving distance at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three years has been 299 yards, which is over the PGA Tour average.

Accuracy off-the-tee isn’t much of a concern as this course too boasts a 63-percent hit fairways percentage, adding to the importance of distance off-the-tee.

Long irons are one of the most important things however as almost 35-percent of approach shots have come from 200-plus yards.

Despite the importance of long iron play, hitting the greens isn’t much of a challenge. Greens in regulation percentage here too is over the PGA Tour average at 70-percent.

If a green is missed, golfers could be in a bit of trouble as the greens are surrounded by bunkers. Over the last three years, golfers who have finished in the top five have more than doubled the field in sand saves. This goes to show how difficult the bunkers can be around the green.

The three par fives this week play at an average of a modest 558 yards. Hole 18 plays as the longest of the par fives at 569 yards. There are plenty of scoring opportunities on the par fives this week and they must be taken advantage of.

In all, this is a relatively bland course that is set up to allow for some very low scores. The ability for multiple golfers to go very low adds to the excitement of the event.

Following the conclusion of this year’s event, the course is planned to undergo an extensive $15 million renovation spearheaded by golf legend Lanny Wadkins. The renovation will see a complete overhaul of the course’s turf from tee-to-green, added distance and a completely new irrigation system. 

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, the first two days of this tournament look to offer much more promise than the weekend. Thursday currently calls for just a 20-percent chance of precipitation and Friday a ten-percent chance. Saturday is calling for a 45-percent chance of thunderstorms and Sunday at 35-percent chance of thunderstorms. Heavy thunderstorms are also expected to hit the area on Tuesday and Wednesday leading into the event. Temperatures will be at the highest on Thursday at 83-degrees before dipping to 76-degrees and gradually increased to 79-degrees come Sunday. Winds are forecasted at nine miles-per-hour for both Thursday and Friday before reaching ten miles-per-hour on Saturday and 12 miles-per-hour on Sunday.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG: TTG)

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: PUTT)

• Average Driving Distance

• Proximity to the hole from from 200+ Yards

• Sand Saves Percentage

• Birdie or Better Percentage

• Bogey Avoidance

• Par Five Average Scoring

• Scrambling

• Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%)

DFS Suggestions

$10,000+

Boring, I know. In a field like this that features Scottie Scheffler ($13,300,) we simply can’t ignore it. Scheffler is getting the Scheffler treatment once again. The World No. 1 has the highest price tag by $2,800 over Jordan Spieth. So be it. This field allows great value deeper on the board and many will see Scheffler’s price and look elsewhere. He’s first on Tour in bogey avoidance and scrambling. He’s also second in SG: TTG, fourth in SG: APP, eighth in GIR%, 26th in birdie or better percentage, 40th in par-five average scoring, 43rd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 44th in SG: PUTT, 82nd in average driving distance and 90th in sand saves percentage. In eight events played this season, his worst finish was 25th at the WM Phoenix Open. He most recently placed eight at the RBC Heritage, fourth at the Masters Tournament and second at the Texas Children’s Houston Open in his last three outings. He didn’t play here a season ago but placed fifth in 2023, 15th in 2022 and 47th in 2021. Don’t let the price tag scare you. I wouldn’t want to go into this week of DFS without Scheffler in my lineups.

$9,000-$9,900

In the event you want to forego the Scheffler route or the rest of the $10,000-plus price range, there are some great options in this price range as well. First up, we have the defending champion Taylor Pendrith ($9,600.) Pendrith used this event a season ago to claim his maiden PGA Tour title in his debut at this event and course. He hasn’t been in the best of form as of late. He placed 42nd at the RBC Heritage and missed the cut at the Masters Tournament in his last two outings. Prior to that he placed fifth in his last visit to Texas at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and 38th at THE PLAYERS Championship. He is currently fifth on Tour in GIR%, tenth in par-five average scoring, 30th in SG: TTG, 36th in average driving distance, 41st in SG: APP, 55th in birdie or better percentage, 63rd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 83rd in bogey avoidance, 107th in sand saves percentage, 118th in SG: PUTT and 146th in scrambling. Also consider Stephan Jaeger ($9,300.) Jaeger has made the cut in five consecutive events coming into this week. He placed 32nd in his latest outing at the RBC Heritage. He also placed 52nd at the Masters Tournament, 11th at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, 36th at the Valspar Championship and 20th at THE PLAYERS Championship dating back to March. He’s played this event each of the past three seasons, placing 20th a season ago, 11th in 2023 and 38th in 2022. Jaeger is currently 19th on Tour in sand saves percentage, 27th in birdie or better percentage, 32nd in SG: APP, 34th in SG: PUTT, 49th in SG: TTG, 69th in average driving distance, 85th in bogey avoidance, 89th in GIR%, 102nd in scrambling, 108th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards and 114th in par-five average scoring. He’s also on my betting card at +4500. 

$8,000-$8,900

Leading off this price range is Ryan Gerard ($8,600.) Gerard has been red-hot as of late. He placed T12th last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with teammate Danny Walker. He also placed 27th at the RBC Heritage. What really excited me about Gerard is his form recently in texas. He placed second at the Valero Texas Open and ninth at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Something about Texas golf clicks for him. He has played this event just once prior, missing the cut in 2023. Gerard is currently 15th on tour in SG: PUTT, 28th in SG: APP, 33rd in scrambling, 43rd in SG: TTG, 47th in bogey avoidance, 48th in birdie or better percentage, 51st in sand saves percentage, 63rd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 80th in average driving distance, 82nd in par-five average scoring and 104th in GIR%. He is also on my betting card at +7000. Also consider Jake Knapp ($8,400.) Knapp finished third last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with partner Frankie Capan III. Beyond that, he’s had a mixed bag of results. He missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open but placed 27th at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He also missed the cut at the Valspar Championship but placed 12th at THE PLAYERS Championship and sixth at the Cognizant Classic. He did place eighth here a season ago in his lone appearance at this event and course. Knapp is currently 14th on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 17th in par-five average scoring, 21st in SG: PUTT, 23rd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 34th in average driving distance, 62nd in SG: APP, 66th in bogey avoidance, 73rd in GIR%, 95th in scrambling, 97th in sand saves percentage and 109th in SG: TTG. Knapp is also on my betting card at +6600. 

$7,000-$7,900

Alex Smalley ($7,900) continues to be a staple in his article series this season. He is currently 12th on Tour in scrambling, 13th in SG: TTG, 14th in bogey avoidance, 30th in GIR%, 34th in sand saves percentage, 43rd in SG: PUTT, 49th in average driving distance, 58th in birdie or better percentage, 81st in SG: APP, 92nd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards and 104th in par-five average scoring. The results recently have not been there however. He placed 63rd in his most recent outing at the Corales Puntacana Championship. He missed the cut in three consecutive events prior. However, before that, he placed 14th at THE PLAYERS Championship, 18th at the Cognizant Classic, tenth at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld and 21st at the WM Phoenix Open. He also placed 13th here a season ago. We know the caliber of golf Smalley is capable of. It’s just a matter of time before he gets back into form. Also consider Lee Hodges ($7,500.) Hodges is currently third on Tour in par-five average scoring, eighth in bogey avoidance, 19th in both SG: PUTT and scrambling, 26th in GIR%, 36th in birdie or better percentage, 38th in SG: APP, 45th in SG: TTG, 46th in average driving distance, 133rd in sand saves percentage and 173rd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards. He missed the cut last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with partner Jason Dufner. Prior to that he missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open but did place 11th at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He’s played this event just once prior, missing the cut in 2022. Hodges is also on my betting card at +10000.

$6,900-

Leading off this final price range is Jeremy Paul ($6,800.) Jeremy and brother Yannik missed the cut at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last week. Prior to that he placed second at the Corales Puntacana Championship, 22nd at the Valspar Championship and 16th at the Puerto Rico Open. He did miss the cut at the Valero Texas Open and Texas Children’s Houston Open however. He’ll be making his tournament debut here this week. Paul is currently sixth on tour in par-five average scoring, 21st in bogey avoidance, 28th in average driving distance, 41st in sand saves percentage, 49th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 50th in GIR%, 53rd in scrambling, 69th in birdie or better percentage, 89th in SG: TTG, 109th in SG: PUTT and 132nd in SG: APP. Also consider Erik van Rooyen ($6,700.) Rooyen also missed the cut last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside fellow countryman Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Prior to that he missed the cut at the Corales Puntacana Championship, placed 62nd at the Valero Texas Open, missed the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship and placed ninth at the Cognizant Classic. He’s also played this event twice prior, missing the cut in both 2023 and 2021. Rooyen is currently third on Tour in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 29th in birdie or better percentage, 33rd in average driving distance, 43rd in GIR%, 59th in par-five average scoring, 75th in SG: TTG, 76th in SG: APP, 126th in SG: PUTT, 154th in bogey avoidance, 174th in sand saves percentage and 176th in scrambling. 

Betting Card

• Stephan Jaeger (+4500)

• Jake Knapp (+6600)

• Ryan Gerard (+7000)

• Lee Hodges (+10000)

• Cam Davis (+12500)

• Nico Echavarria (+17500)

Cam Davis (+12500)

This event is a bonafide birdie-fest. With that being said, I’m taking a shot on Davis who is third on Tour in birdie or better percentage. He is also 20th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 65th in SG: APP, 68th in SG: PUTT, 72nd in par-five average scoring, 107th in average driving distance, 112th in SG: TTG, 122nd in sand saves percentage, 127th in GIR% and 166th in bogey avoidance. Davis placed 32nd last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside Adam Svensson. He also placed 13th at the RBC Heritage. Earlier this season he also placed fifth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 18th at The American Express. Davis will be making his tournament debut here this week. 

Nico Echavarria (+17500)

Oftentimes, these types of events boil down to putting contests and there’s currently no one better on Tour in putting than Echavarria. He is also 48th in sand saves percentage, 54th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 63rd in GIR%, 64th in birdie or better percentage, 89th in bogey avoidance, 104th in par-five average scoring, 123rd in scrambling, 131st in SG: APP, 156th in average driving distance and 165th in SG: TTG. He placed 28th last week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside Max Greyserman. He also placed 51st at the Masters Tournament, 32nd at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and 16th at the Valspar Championship. He also placed 24th here a season ago.