DraftKings
DK Player Pool QB – Patrick Mahomes ($7,400), Kyler Murray ($7,100), Deshaun Watson ($6,800), Joe Burrow ($5,500)
RB – Alvin Kamara ($7,900), Aaron Jones ($7,200), Kareem Hunt ($6,800), Mike Davis ($6,600), Joe Mixon ($6,300), Todd Gurley ($6,000), David Johnson ($5,300), Antonio Gibson ($5,000), Giovani Bernard ($4,500)
WR – Davante Adams ($7,900), Julio Jones ($7,100), Keenan Allen ($6,200), Terry McLaurin ($5,900), Jamison Crowder ($5,900), Tyler Boyd ($5,400), Mike Williams ($4,700), Laviska Shenault ($4,500), Diontae Johnson ($4,200)
TE – George Kittle ($6,500), Travis Kelce ($6,300), Hunter Henry ($4,500), Austin Hooper ($4,000), Logan Thomas ($3,500)
DST – Bills ($4,700), Chiefs ($4,300), Browns ($2,800), WAS Football Team ($2,500), Falcons ($2,400)
Lineup Review
The weather kept Mahomes in check, and I probably should have pivoted away from him in retrospect given the gameday forecasts. My other quarterbacks were all great, though. Outside of Mike Davis, all of my runningbacks hit, including Jamaal Williams who was an Aaron Jones replacement. Mike Williams was a disappointment, especially considering the amount of offense put up in that game, but all of the other options were decent or better at wide reciever. Again, my ‘chalk’ tight ends didn’t live up to their price tags, but the process behind the other options was right. Henry had seven targets in a high scoring game, Logan Thomas balled out and the Hooper replacements (Harrison Bryant and Davis Njoku) scored three total touchdowns. The DST selections worked out really nicely – ATL even had a few sacks at their cost saving price.
Results
D. Watson, A. Kamara, J. Williams, D. Adams, T. McLaurin, D. Johnson, T. Kelce, G. Bernard, WFT (213.66 pts +$11)
K. Murray, A. Kamara, J. Williams, S. Diggs, K. Allen, D. Johnson, T. Kecle, G. Bernard, CLE (184.3 pts, +$0)
J. Burrow, A. Kamara, M. Davis, K. Allen, T. McLaurin, D. Johnson, T. Kelce, G. Bernard, CLE (180.24 pts -$9)
P. Mahomes, M. Davis, G. Bernard, D. Adams, K. Allen, T. McLaurin, H. Henry, J. Williams, CLE (170 pts, -$10)
Net: -$8, (-20% ROI)
FanDuel
FanDuel Player Pool
QB: Patrick Mahomes ($9,000), Russell Wilson ($8,700), Kyler Murray ($8,400), Deshaun Watson ($8,000), Matthew Stafford ($7,300)
RB: Alvin Kamara ($9,300), Mike Davis ($7,700), Kareem Hunt ($7,100), Antonio Gibson ($5,700), Jerick McKinnon ($5,500), Giovani Bernard ($4,800)
WR: Davante Adams ($8,900), Tyler Lockett ($7,400), DK Metcalf ($7,300), Keenan Allen ($7,000), Robby Anderson ($6,400), Tyler Boyd ($6,000), Trequon Smith ($5,300)
TE: Travis Kelce ($7,900), George Kittle ($7,100), Hunter Henry ($5,800), David Njoku ($4,500)
DST: Dallas ($3,700), Bills ($5,000), Chiefs ($4,600)
Lineup Review
The weather in Denver was bad, which limited the passing game for Mahomes (not to mention the game script with Denver being non-competitive.) I did avoid Mahomes in my four lineups, creating one with each of the other quarterbacks, where Stafford was the only mild disappointment.
Kamara was only ‘OK’ for his price, and McKinnon busted thanks to San Francisco’s desire to rest him due to a previous large workload (something to monitor next week as runningback injuries pile up.) All of the other options hit well.
Adams and Lockett both SMASHED, while Metcalf busted because the passing stats all went to Lockett. DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel combined for three touchdowns, so while Anderson didn’t bust, he could have had a much nicer day. Smith was outproduced by Calloway, but at $5,300; that didn’t hurt too badly.
It was a rough week to play the tight end chalk – I ended up with Kittle in all of my cash lineups, as I felt like his upside and safety were worthwhile; only to see New England lay a complete dud and Kittle not be needed. The Njoku call worked out, and the process was sound, as backup tight ends caught three touchdowns (Harrison Bryant with two) in Austin Hooper’s absence.
I got the Chiefs call correct, as they scored two touchdowns, but Dallas was my main choice in lineups due to cost savings, and that burnt me as their effort was terrible trying to support an offense that couldn’t move the ball.
Results
K. Murray, K. Hunt, A. Gibson, D. Adams, DK Metcalf, K. Allen, G. Kittle, G. Bernard, DAL (161.6 pts, +$10)
D. Watson, K. Hunt, G. Bernard, D. Adams, K. Allen, DK Metcalf, G. Kittle, A. Gibson, DAL (147.66 pts, +$12)
R. Wilson, K. Hunt, A. Kamara, DK Metcalf, R. Anderson, D. Samuel, G. Kittle, G. Bernard, DAL (120.92 pts -$10)
M. Stafford, A. Kamara, K. Hunt, DK Metcalf, K. Allen, R. Anderson, G. Kittle, G. Bernard, DAL (114.2 pts -$6)
Net: +$6 (14.6% ROI)
Slate Thoughts
I liked my picks and process, but unfortunately, it was just a VERY chalky week. The cutoff scores to cash in 50/50s and Double Ups was extremely high compared to normal, so I’m going to just chalk this one up to rough variance. My biggest issues was making sure I get off of players with one-off factors (like weather for Mahomes.) I also need to do a better job of diversifying my TE/DSTs across my lineups, as having 100% exposure to Kelce/Kittle on each site was crushing on a slate like this, especially when the point of having multiple lineups is to reduce your variance.
A poor start, but it seems related more to variance than bad process. DK Metcalf had a touchdown called back, Mike Davis had one of his worst games, and the elite tight ends didn’t show their elite upsides this week. We’ll get back to it, and likely start taking more shots next week in an effort to get back on pace to meet our goal by season’s end.