The RSM Classic
By: Jake Friedman
The PGA Tour heads to Georgia for the RSM Classic. We are getting a much better field than last week and we finally have shot link data back! I'm excited to share my DFS plays and outright picks for this week. Please give Nate's article a read for the course and field breakdown, he does a great job covering that each week. As alwyas, please make sure you bet responsibly and please give me a follow on X @TheJakeFriedman
I'm going to start out with Ludvig Aberg ($10,900). His recent form speaks for itself. He's teed it up 7 times since August and his worst finish was a T-14. Aberg is long and accurate off the tee with above average approach, around the green, and putting. With how he is playing, it seems like his floor is a T-20 finish. I would not be surprised at all to see him lift the trophy on Sunday and therefore I love the play in DFS this week.
From a pure game theory perspective, Cameron Young ($10,600) is going to get some ownership in my DFS lineups this week. Who in their right mind would pay that price for a golfer who has made one start this swing season at the WWT Championship and placed T-54 losing 0.35 strokes per round? I am. I'm projecting he will come in between 8-14% owned in the larger contests which for a guy in this range is very low owned. He's shown that he is long off the tee, can get hot with the irons and can get hot with the flat stick. If he can bring back the skills that lead him to the Arnold Palmer Award (rookie of the year) in the 2021-22 season, he can be an integral piece to winning any contest.
I'm going to start this section with a disclaimer that I will be avoiding this range to the extent that I am able to. I think a lot of people are going to start their lineups in this range given the likes of Corey Conners, Russell Henley, J.T. Poston, and Eric Cole. I like all 4 of those potentially from a betting standpoint but in order to win your DFS contests and not min cash you have to maximize upside which those 4 players don't offer unless they finish T-10 or better.
That being said, the consensus play of the week is Russell Henley ($9,700). I've seen him on almost every single betting card this week, including mine, and for good reason. He is elite off the tee and with the irons. His finish this week will be based on how hot he can get the putter. I personally can't play a guy at the ownership he will get with no competitive golf played since the end of August at the Tour Championship where he placed dead middle of the pack at T-14. I hope this paragraph comes back to bite me on Sunday since I have him outright, but from a DFS standpoint I can't endorse the play.
A guy I can see myself taking in this range is Si Woo Kim ($9,100). If you look at his profile he does everything Henley does but just slightly worse. Elite off the tee, with the irons, and around the green. His week will also come down to how hot he can get with the putter. I'll happily play Kim at a fraction of the ownership and the same skillset as Henley this week.
When I hear hitting the fairway is paramount to success at this golf course, the first player that comes to mind for me is Brendon Todd ($8,500). The amount of people who were on him last week compared to this week given the difference in both DFS and outright betting price surprises me. The core areas needed to succeed last week are similar to this week, yet we are seeing a huge discount on Todd. I guess some would consider a T-20 finish by one of the favorites in the tournament as a let down but as someone who didn't get there last week, I'm excited to see the masses move away from Todd this week and leave him to me to hit in both the DFS and outright market.
If you haven't been paying attention to the DPWT this swing season, you're probably going to think I'm crazy when I say that Billy Horschel ($8,400) is my favorite play of the week. To be matter-of-fact, Horschel's PGA Tour season last year was abysmal by his standards. He pieced together 2 good finishes at the end of the season with a T-13 at the 3M and a 4th at the Wyndham. He then crossed the pond and played in 4 tournaments on the DPWT where he went T-45, T-18, T-20, and T-14. Horschel is accurate off the tee and great with the putter. When he is hitting the ball well there isn't a field or course in the world that could stop him from winning.
Even though he let us down at the WWT Championship, I'm going back to Chris Kirk ($7,900). That was his only appearance this swing season and he missed the cut. I'm hoping that can provide an ownership discount on a golfer whose game should match up nicely to how this course is going to play. Accurate off the tee and can get red hot with the irons and putter, I'm happy to go back to Kirk here at a place he can definitely get his game right and win.
I hate to speculate, but, I think someone got fired at Draftkings this morning. Taylor Pendrith ($7,600) is criminal. My guess is that there was a type and he was meant to be $8,600. Unfortunately he is going to be extremely high owned at this price but it can't be ignored. His 3 recent starts during the swing season were a T-3, T-15, and T-8. His last 2 appearances at this event were a T-26 in 2022 and a T-15 last year in 2023. Last week I mentioned how the course didn't suit his strengths and he still had a top 10 finish. Easy click if you need someone in this range that has a very high floor.
I'm going with Tyler Duncan ($6,700) to start off this range. The thing you can hang your hat on playing Duncan is that he is very accurate driving the golf ball. Just about everything else could use some help. Missed the cut in his last outing at the WWT Championship but had a T-16 and a T-18 before that in the swing season. Won this tournament back in 2018 and worth a shot here in the 6k range.
A classic Jake pick to finish out the DFS section, I'm rolling the dice with David Ford ($6,100). This weeks model spit him out and there's no strokes gained data on him. 5th in the World Amateur Golf Rankings, David Ford, not to be confused with his brother Maxwell Ford who is also in the field this week, seems to have had a successful year. In 54 rounds he gained on average 2.12 strokes per round. That's good enough for me to take a shot on and see if he can make the cut.
Russell Henley 18/1 - I'm going to join the Henley party and hope he can get the putter hot. This is going to sound like a crazy annalogy but he's essentially Scottie Scheffler in this field. Elite tee to green play, it'll all come down to the putter.
Brendon Todd 50/1 - One of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball and an amazing putter this was a no brainer click for me at these odds. This seems like a prime week where everyone was on Todd last week as the favorite, most hop off this week with a "let down" week last week, and he lifts the trophy come Sunday this week.
Chris Kirk 50/1 - This is a bet where I'm calling my shot on Kirk. No form to speak of but has the game to win here if he was able to figure something out between the WWT Championship and now.
Billy Horschel 50/1 - Mentioned him as my favorite play of the week in the DFS section, he's been playing some very good golf on the DPWT this swing season. I look forward to him bringing that game back to the States this week. Like I said above, when Billy Horschel gets going, there's no field or course that can stop him from winning.
Harris English 60/1 - Someone I didn't mention in the DFS section, Harris English had a season full of mixed finishes. He flashed what he could do when his game is clicking with a T-8 at The Open last year and closed the season with a T-10 at the BMW Championship. He checks the boxes of an accurate driver who can get hot with the irons and is an above average putter. I think the price is very fair on a 4 time PGA Tour winner.
Taylor Pendrith 75/1 - This was my first click Monday morning. His recent form is a T-3, T-15 and T-8. His tournament history is a T-25 2 years aho and a T-15 last year. The stars are aligning for Pendrith to list the trophy on Sunday.
Good luck in all your action this week and remember to please bet responsibly!