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  • Writer's pictureBrian Wentworth II

TB to TB is a Big Upgrade for Tampa's Two

There seems to be this rumbling in the community that Mike Evans is dead weight with Tom Brady at quarterback. Perhaps not dead weight, but people certainly aren’t excited about the Bucs' upgrade at QB for Evans. There are valid points to the argument but I think it might be an overreaction. 

In 2019:

  • Brady was 15th in deep balls thrown at 60

  • Winston was 1st thrown at 113

  • Brady’s ADT (average depth of target) was 7.6

  • Winston’s ADT was 10.4 (2nd in the NFL)

For a freak deep threat like Mike Evans, it is completely understandable why people are worried. To an extent it goes so far before it gets silly, Evan’s ADP is currently 2.07, which I think is a fair spot for him. His low though is currently the 3.02 in 12 team leagues. This is free value if you can find him in the third round. Brady is a better overall QB and will get Evans the ball. For the first time in a long time, Brady has weapons and he will use him. Brady has made it clear he will adapt himself to the Tampa offense, and if this remains true, Evans should be fine in the second round. 

The harder question comes with Godwin, who’s current ADP is also 2.03. It’s a shame he won’t be a fifth round goldmine like last season. With a QB who has made use of the slot his whole career, Godwin is worth the 2.03. I think we see touchdown regression from nine to about four or five. His reception value in any form of PPR though makes him worth owning and if you cannot decide, flip a coin because they’re clearly a 1A and 1B and we get to watch their truthers argue over it every week. 

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