Out of the Rough: U.S. Open (2025)

Golf’s toughest challenge returns to take center stage this week as the U.S. Open heads to the storied Oakmont Country Club in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

No other course has hosted the United State’s longest standing golf tournament more times than Oakmont, which will host a record tenth time this week.

Dustin Johnson last hoisted the U.S. Open Championship Trophy at Oakmont back in 2016. Before that Angel Cabrera won here in 2007, Ernie Els in 1994, Larry Nelson in 1984, Johnny Miller in 1973, Jack Nicklaus in 1962, Ben Hogan in 1953, Sam Parks Jr. in 1935 and Tommy Armour in 1927.

What is already deemed the toughest challenge in golf will take a step further as reports suggest this could be the most challenging course the Tour has seen in decades.

The U.S. Open is arguably my favorite weekend of the season as a fan of the sport with the threat of golfers exploding on every shot. The turmoil and chaos that can ensue here is what makes the U.S. Open, the toughest challenge in the sport.

This year marks the 125th playing of the U.S. Open. First played in 1895, it is the second longest standing golf tournament in the World to just The Open Championship.

The Field

Everyone in the World of golf was dreaming of a tee-time at Oakmont on June 12th.

From defending champion Bryson DeChambeau to 17-year-old high schooler Mason Howell, every golfer teeing it up this week had taken their own journey to get there.

A total of 85 golfers were fully exempt into this week’s field. Those not receiving exemption had to play through final qualifiers, ending in ‘Golf’s Longest Day’ to get here.

The last time a final qualifier won this event was Lucas Glover in 2009.

Of course, this week’s field is headlines by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler who won the most recent Major, the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in demanding fashion. From there, he went on to lap the field at the Memorial Tournament two weeks later.

World No. 2 Rory McIlroy may be the only golfer in the World who can say he is having a better season than Scheffler. McIlroy completed the Career Grand Slam by winning the Masters Tournament in April and also won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and THE PLAYERS Championship this season.

LIV Golf’s DeChambeau is the defending champion, having taken down McIlroy late on Sunday a season ago to claim his second U.S. Open title. He’ll look to become the first golfer since Tiger Woods to win a third U.S. Open title this season.

Jon Rahm joins DeChambeau as a LIV representative and former U.S. Open champion, claiming his title in 2021 at Torrey Pines. 

World No. 3 Xander Schauffele, the winner of both the PGA Championship and The Open Championship a season ago will look to add the third notch to his Career Grand Slam resume this week.

The field also includes Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Sepp Straka, Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth.

LIV will be represented by a total of 13 golfers this week. Joining the likes of DeChambeau and Rahm are Joaquin Niemann who received the lone automatic bid for LIV Golfers.

Former U.S. Open champions playing this week include DeChambeau (2024 & 2020,) Wyndham Clark (2023,) Matt Fitzpatrick (2022), Rahm (2021,) Gary Woodland (2019,) Brooks Koepka (2018 & 2017,) Johnson (2016,) Jordan Spieth (2015,) Justin Rose (2013,) McIlroy (2011) and Glover (2009.)

Seven-of-the-nine winners of the U.S. Open at Oakmont won their first major title here.

In all, qualifying marks include past ten U.S. Open champions, top ten-plus-ties from the 2024 U.S. Open, the 2024 U.S. Senior Open Champion, 2024 U.S. Amateur champion and runner-up, 2024 U.S. Junior Amateur champion, 2024 U.S. Mid-Amateur champion, past five Masters champions, past five PGA champions, past five The Open champions, the 2024 Tour Championship field, the 2024 Korn Ferry Tour points leader, the top 60 of the OWGR to May 19th, top five of the FedEx Cup on May 19th, top two of the 2024 Race to Dubai, top player in the 2025 Race to Dubai on May 19th, leading player of top three from LIV Golf on May 19th, 2024 Mark H. McCormack Medal, 2025 NCAA Champion, 2025 Latin American Amateur Champion, top 60 players from June 9th OWGR and those who qualified via final qualifying. 

The Course

Oakmont Country Club is the most storied host of the U.S. Open, hosting for a record tenth time this season.

Many of the game’s greats have hoisted the U.S. Open Championship trophy at this very golf course.

Oakmont Country Club was first opened in 1904 and was designed by Henry Fownes. Often upon visiting these storied courses, we have a list of other designs to add next to the designers name. That isn’t the case for Fownes, as his only design was this venue.

As the story goes, upon making his fortune in iron and steel in Pittsburgh, Fownes became one of Western Pennsylvania’s best golfers. Along with his two sons, William and Charles, the trio quickly found that the Highland Country Club they played at was becoming too easy for them.

From there, they purchased 191 acres overlooking the borough of Oakmont. Fownes would begin his grand design with 150 men and a team of two-dozen horses. The original venue was hand-dug and constructed by this group of men and animals.

Designed as an “inland links” course, styled after the traditional links of Great Britain, Oakmont has stood the test of time.

Most golf courses of this era have become obsolete, as technology has advanced but not Oakmont, which has stood the test of time.

It will play as a par-70 at 7,372 yards. 

With zero water on the golf course, the course still shows it’s teeth on every shot.

Reports suggest that leading into this year, the course had experimented with several strands of rough, to find what would grow the best and force the toughest challenge. The rough will be between four-and-a-half to five-and-a-half inches this week, with the goal of it being on the longer side of that figure.With the area enduring an extremely wet spring, the rough will be extra thick as well. Videos have shown people dropping a golf ball into this rough as the ball totally disappears. 

The fairways, per USGA standards, will also be narrowed this week to an average of roughly 28-yards. Of course, some will be narrower as some will be wider. If what we’re seeing is to be true, finding the fairways will be crucial this week.

From there, Oakmont features 168 bunkers and most notably, features church pew bunkers. This is a 100-yard long bunker that sits between holes three-and-four. It comes into play on the left of both holes where they play opposite. This unique bunker includes 13 grassy ridges that run throughout.

The USGA has also noted that the ditches that run throughout Oakmont will be more-in-play this year without guarding rough and further vegetation within. 

With the need to find fairways, golfers won’t be able to ‘bomb and gouge’ successfully around this golf course and will likely take a bit off their drives. This will in turn, require a strong long-iron play to be successful.

From there, the challenge continues as the greens are expected to run between 14.5 to 14.9 on the Simpmeter. The greens too are known for their undulations and slopes, which will add even more of a challenge on top of them being lightning-fast. 

These greens are Poa annua and average 7,000 square feet in size

Fun fact, the Stimpmeter originated from Oakmont. Edward Stimpson, a spectator at the 1935 U.S. Open noticed the extremely fast and inconsistent greens which led him to developing the device. 

As the course features 168 sand bunkers, the greens are heavily guarded with unique and intimidating bunkers. Some of these green side bunkers are both deep and steep. 

The signature hole here at Oakmont is the 18th. A par-four at 484 yards, the hole has been touted as one of the best inland finishing holes in America. The fairway is guarded by five bunkers. The long-approach shot in is then tested by four small bunkers to the left of the green and one large bunker to right. 

If you’ve been longing for the World’s best to struggle on a golf course, this is your time. Birdies will come, but they will be rewarded, not given. Bogeys, and even double-bogeys, will be in play on any shot. Heck, even ‘good’ shots this week can end in bogies. It will be a true test and one fitting to host the 125th playing of the U.S. Open.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, both Thursday and Friday look to be the best in terms of weather. They both call for just a ten-percent chance of precipitation with temperatures set at 84-degrees on Thursday and 85-degrees on Friday. Winds are set for just seven miles-per-hour across both days as well. From there, the weather will get a little dicey into the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday are calling for a 50-percent chance of scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures will dip a little bit with the forecasted rain as temperatures are set at 78-degrees for Saturday and 77-degrees for Sunday. Winds will remain at seven miles-per-hour for Saturday and bump up to eight miles-per-hour for Sunday. We can only cross our fingers that the storms miss the area on the weekend.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) / Total Driving

• Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa (SG: PUTT Poa)

• Par 4 Average Scoring

• Proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards

• Proximity to the hole from the Rough / Birdie or Better Percentage from the Rough

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

• Scrambling / Scrambling from the Rough / Scrambling from the Sand

• Three Putt Avoidance

• Bogey Avoidance

• Bounce Back

DFS Suggestions

$10,000+

The obvious answer here is Scottie Scheffler ($14,000.) He tops my stats-based model by a massive margin. However, at his price and what you would have to put around him, I can’t back him in this market. Is it doable? Very much so. However, I think what you’re giving up to fit him in would be too much this week. With that being said, I’ll lead things off with Jon Rahm ($10,200.) Rahm currently leads the LIV Golf Tour in birdies, is third in GIR%, fourth in scrambling, ninth in average driving distance and 15th in putting average. He most recently placed eighth at LIV Golf Virginia. Prior to that he placed seventh in Korea, fourth in Mexico, ninth in Miami, fifth in Singapore, sixth in Hong Kong, sixth in Adelaide and second in Riyadh. He also placed eighth at the PGA Championship and 14th at the Masters Tournament. He held the lead at the PGA Championship heading into the back-nine before falling apart. He didn’t play in the 2024 U.S. Open due to injury but prior to that placed tenth in 2023, 12th in 2022, he won in 2021 at Torrey Pines and placed 23rd in 2020. He is also on my betting card at +1400. Also consider Rory McIlroy ($12,400.) His performance last week at the RBC Canadian Open was awful. Rory went nine-over through the first two rounds and finished the week fifth from last. However, it was very apparent he didn’t want to be there and was simply going through the motions through his obligations as the face of the tournament. It has also been reported that McIlroy is struggling to find motivation since claiming the Career Grand Slam at Augusta back in April. McIlroy is currently first on Tour in SG: OTT, fourth in par-four average scoring, seventh in bogey avoidance, tenth in scrambling, 29th in scrambling from the rough, 36th in scrambling from the sand, 39th in SG: APP, 41st in SG: ATG, 49th in birdie-or-better percentage from the rough, 83rd in total driving, 89th in bounce back, 101st in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 145th in SG: PUTT Poa, 154th in three-putt avoidance and 159th in proximity to the hole from the rough. As previously mentioned, McIlroy is having arguably the best season in the World of golf. Not only did he win the Masters Tournament, but he also won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and THE PLAYERS Championship. He most recently placed 47th at the PGA Championship outside of the missed cut in Canada. He also placed seventh at the Truist Championship, 12th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, fifth at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, 15th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 17th at The Genesis Invitational. McIlroy was also the runner-up at each of the past two U.S. Opens and also placed fifth in 2022, seventh in 2021 and eighth in 2020. With his performance last week and the reports of his lack of motivation, I believe the ownership will be slighted for McIlroy. This could be a big swing-and-a-miss but could also very well be the difference maker if he shows up this week. 

$9,000-$9,900

First up in this price range is Collin Morikawa ($9,800.) Morikawa has been scrambling for form coming into this week. He most recently placed 20th at the Memorial Tournament, 50th at the PGA Championship, 17th at the Truist Championship and 54th at the RBC Heritage. Prior to that he placed 14th at the Masters Tournament, tenth at THE PLAYERS Championship, second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 17th at The Genesis Invitational, 17th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and second at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. Morikawa placed 14th in each of the last two U.S. Opens. He also placed fifth in 2022, fourth in 2021 and missed the cut in 2020. Morikawa is currently sixth in SG: APP, 16th in scrambling from the sand, 19th in SG: OTT, 23rd in par-four average scoring, 41st in bogey avoidance, 50th in total driving, 51st in SG: PUTT Poa, 61st in proximity from the rough, 62nd in three-putt avoidance, 79th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 81st in bounce back, 91st in all three of SG: ATG, scrambling and scrambling from the rough and 120th in birdie-or-better percentage from the rough. Also consider Patrick Cantlay ($9,300.) Cantlay most recently placed 12th at the Memorial Tournament and missed the cut at the PGA Championship. Prior to that he placed fourth at the Truist Championship, 13th at the RBC Heritage, 36th at the Masters Tournament, 33rd at the Valero Texas Open, 12th at THE PLAYERS Championship, 31st at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, fifth at The Genesis Invitational, 33rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, fifth at The American Express and 15th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. Cantlay placed third last year at the U.S. Open, 14th in 2023, 14th in 2022, 15th in 2021 and 43rd in 2020. He is currently fourth in par-four average scoring, tenth in SG: APP, 11th in birdie-or-better percentage from the rough, 33rd in SG: OTT, 38th in total driving, 44th in both bogey avoidance and bounce back, 47th in proximity from the rough, 59th in proximity from 175-plus yards, 66th in SG: PUTT Poa, 72nd in three-putt avoidance, 88th in SG: ATG, 127th in scrambling from the rough, 130th in scrambling and 158th in scrambling from the sand. Cantlay is also on my betting card at +5000. 

$8,000-$8,900

Leading off this price range is Hideki Matsuyama ($8,000.) Matsuyama has been great at the U.S. Open over the past five seasons. He placed sixth in 2024, 32nd in 2023, fourth in 2022, 26th in 2021 and 17th in 2020. He is currently third on Tour in scrambling, fourth in SG: ATG, seventh in scrambling from the rough, 15th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 24th in bounce back, 39th in bogey avoidance, 43rd in proximity from the rough, 52nd in both SG: APP and SG: PUTT Poa, 56th in par-four average scoring, 107th in SG: OTT, 158th in total driving and 161st in three-putt avoidance. Matsuyama most recently placed 38th in his last appearance at the Memorial Tournament, 36th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, missed the cut at the PGA Championship, placed 17th at the Truist Championship and 21st at the Masters Tournament. He is also on my betting card at +7000. Also consider Joaquin Niemann ($8,600.) I've been rather vocal about my stance on Niemann and it hasn’t been a good one. However, his eighth place finish at the PGA Championship and 29th at the Masters Tournament has begun to swing me. The knock to Niemann has always been his inability to show up at the Majors but he’s played well in his last two. He didn’t play in 2024 edition of the U.S. Open but prior to that placed 32nd in 2023, 47th in 2022, 31st in 2021 and 23rd in 2020. On the LIV Golf Tour he is currently second in birdies, third in average driving distance, fourth in GIR%, eighth in scrambling and 11th in putting average. He most recently won his fourth event of the season, winning the LIV Golf Virginia last week. Prior to that he placed 20th in Korea, won in Mexico, placed 33rd in Miami, won in Singapore, placed 12th in Hong Kong, won in Adelaide and placed 33rd in Riyadh. 

$7,000-$7,900

With many more options in these next three price ranges and it being a major, I will offer three golfers per price range. My first play in this price range is the only golfer to win multiple events outside of Scheffler and McIlroy and that is Sepp Straka ($7,700.) Now, Straka has not been great the U.S. Open, placing 56th in 2024 and missing the cut in both 2023 and 2022. However, he’s playing the best golf of his career this season. He placed third in his last outing at the Memorial Tournament. He did miss the cut at the PGA Championship but prior to that won the Truist Championship, 12th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, 13th at the RBC Heritage, 28th at the Valspar Championship, 14th at THE PLAYERS Championship, fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 11th at the Cognizant Classic, 15th at the WM Phoenix Open, seventh at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and won The American Express. Straka is currently second at the SG: APP, fifth in bogey avoidance, eighth in par-four average scoring, 25th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 37th in both SG: OTT and three-putt avoidance, 44th in total driving, 66th in both scrambling from the rough and bounce back, 73rd in proximity from the rough, 76th in scrambling, 102nd in SG: PUTT Poa, 111th in birdie-or-better percentage, 120th in scrambling from the sand and 130th in SG: ATG. He is also on my betting card at +5000. Also consider Keegan Bradley ($7,400.) Bradley placed 32nd at the U.S. Open last season ago, missed the cut in 2023 and placed seventh in 2022. He’s also been in some great form coming into this week. He placed seventh in his latest outing at the Memorial Tournament, eighth at the PGA Championship, 30th at the Truist Championship and 18th at the RBC Heritage. He is currently 12th on Tour in SG: APP, 14th in par-four average scoring, 15th in proximity from the rough, 17th in total driving, 20th in SG: ATG, 25th in three-putt avoidance, 26th in SG: OTT, 39th in bounce back, 69th in birdie-or-better percentage from the rough, 70th in bogey avoidance, 99th in scrambling from the rough, 114th in SG: PUTT Poa, 120th in scrambling, 135th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, and 139th in scrambling from the sand. Bradley is also on my betting card at +10000. Also, consider Sungjae Im ($7,000.) To put it simply, Im has not been good at the U.S. Open as of late. He’s missed the cut in each of the past three seasons. He placed 35th in 2021 and 22nd in 2020. He placed 16th in his latest outing at the Memorial Tournament. He did miss the cut at the PGA Championship but prior to that placed 23rd at the Truist Championship, 33rd at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, 11th at the RBC Heritage and fifth at the Masters Tournament. Im is currently fourth on Tour in bounce back, sixth in SG: ATG, 14th in par-four average scoring, 17th in SG: OTT, 34th in SG: PUTT Poa, 36th in birdie-or-better percentage from the rough, 41st in three-putt avoidance, 45th in scrambling, 49th in scrambling from the rough, 55th in total driving, 63rd in scrambling from the sand, 82nd in bogey avoidance, 123rd in proximity to the hole from the rough, 159th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards and 173rd in SG: APP. 

$6,000-$6,900

As has been the norm for the majors, I’m once again going with Patrick Reed ($6,900.) Reed placed 23rd at last week’s LIV Golf Virginia. Prior to that he placed fourth in Korea, 17th in Mexico, seventh in Miami, 25th in Singapore, tenth in Hong Kong, 37th in Adelaide and 44th in Riyadh. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship but placed third at the Masters Tournament this season. He is currently sixth on LIV in scrambling, 19th in putting average, 23rd in GIR%, 31st in average driving distance and 34th in birdies. I continue to hang my hat on the fact that Reed needs to be on Team USA for the Ryder Cup at Bethpage this fall and he needs to all but win a Major to make that happen. Also consider Thorbjorn Olesen ($6,000.) Olesen most recently placed T36th at last week’s RBC Canadian Open. Prior to that he placed 46th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 33rd at the PGA Championship, seventh at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, 29th at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson and fifth at the Valero Texas Open. He last played an U.S. Open in 2022 where he missed the cut. On Tour he is currently 16th in three-putt avoidance, 17th in scrambling from the rough, 21st in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 24th in SG: APP, 26th in total driving, 29th in SG: OTT, 35th in bounce back, 47th in scrambling, 55th in SG: ATG, 56th in par-four average scoring, 79th in SG: PUTT Poa, 106th in birdie-or-better percentage from the rough, 143rd in scrambling from the sand and 172nd in proximity to the hole from the rough. Also consider Bud Cauley ($6,100.) We last saw Cauley at the Memorial Tournament where he placed 39th. Prior to that he placed third at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 72nd at the PGA Championship, 28th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, 32nd at the RBC Heritage, fifth at the Valero Texas Open, fourth at the Valspar Championship and sixth at THE PLAYERS Championship. Cauley is currently seventh on Tour in bounce back, 12th in proximity to the hole from the rough, 15th in SG: APP, 21st in scrambling from the sand, 23rd in par-four average scoring, 34th in SG: OTT, 39th in scrambling, 45th in birdie-or-better percentage from the rough, 60th in bogey avoidance, 64th in SG: PUTT Poa, 77th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 79th in scrambling from the rough, 101st in SG: ATG, 103rd in total driving and 110th in three-putt avoidance. 

$5,000-$5,900

This is where the fun begins. I love this price range when it comes to Majors. First up we have Sam Stevens ($5,900.) Stevens is currently 15th on Tour in both scrambling and scrambling from the rough, 28th in bogey avoidance, 39th in par-four average scoring, 47th in SG: ATG, 49th in SG: PUTT Poa, 53rd in scrambling from the sand, 61st in total driving, 62nd in both three-putt avoidance and bounce back, 67th in SG: OTT, 85th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 110th in birdie-or-better percentage and 122nd in SG: APP. Stevens is in great form coming into this week. He placed 31st at the Memorial Tournament, 28th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 60th at the PGA Championship, 23rd at the Truist Championship, third at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, 24th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, 54th at the RBC Heritage and 18th at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He played the U.S. Open in 2023 where he placed 43rd and placed 49th in 2022. He is also on my betting card at +25000. Also consider Chris Gotterup ($5,400.) He is currently seventh on Tour in scrambling, ninth in bogey avoidance, 14th in par-four average scoring, 20th in birdie-or-better percentage from the rough, 30th in proximity to the hole from the rough, 36th in both SG: OTT and scrambling from the rough, 44th in scrambling from the sand, 72nd in bounce back, 73rd in total driving, 99th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 106th in SG: ATG, 115th in SG: APP, 153rd in SG: PUTT Poa and 157th in three-putt avoidance. He missed the cut last week at the RBC Canadian Open but prior to that placed 28th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 13th at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, 15th at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, 12th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, 18th at the Corales Puntacana Championship and 18th at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He last played a U.S. Open in 2022 where he placed 43rd. Also consider Laurie Canter ($5,800.) Canter missed the cut last week at the KLM Open on the DP World Tour but prior to that placed second at the Investec South African Open, 35th at the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters, won the Bepco Energies Bahrain Championship, third at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, 42nd at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and 21st at the Nedbank Challenge. On the PGA tour he’s played four events, most recently the PGA Championship, where he missed the cut in all four. He is currently first on the DPWT in SG: OTT, third in SG: TTG, ninth in sand saves, 19th in SG: APP, 24th in scrambling, 26th in average driving distance, 32nd in SG: ATG, 112th in SG: PUTT and 139th in three-putt avoidance. 

Betting Card

• Jon Rahm (+1400)

• Patrick Cantlay (+5000)

• Sepp Straka (+5000)

• Hideki Matsuyama (+7000)

• Keegan Bradley (+10000)

• Sam Stevens (+25000)