Out of the Rough: Rocket Mortgage Classic - First Round Leader (2023)

I’ve decided to start another weekly series in both breaking down and offering my first round leader (FRL) bets for each tournament.

Over the past three weeks, I’ve hit on FRL leaders in Corey Conners (+3500) at the RBC Canadian Open and Xander Schauffele (+3500) at the U.S. Open.

Betting FRL adds a bit more excitement to your betting card. The odds are based on their outright odds, although longer. That is due to the possibilities to tie and therefore, splitting your profits.

For example, if you played $10 on Conners at the RBC Canadian Open and he was to lead after the first round alone, you would receive $350. In the event he tied with someone else, your payout would be split in half and you would receive $175. The number of golfers tied for the lead after the first round is the amount of times your payout would be divided.

With all of that being said, I’ve developed a model for FRLs that is passed on my overall model for the event, average first round scoring and then each golfer’s respective tee time (early or late) average scoring.

For in-depth breakdowns of my model and the statistical categories I took into consideration this week, visit: https://www.weknowfantasy.com/post/out-of-the-rough-rocket-mortgage-classic-2023

Let’s get into things!

Max Homa (+3500)

I know the run of form for Homa isn’t exactly there but as stated in both my preview article for this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic and Out of the Rough Podcast, I believe this is to be a ‘get right’ tournament for him. He comes into this week second in my overall model to just defending champion Tony Finau. Homa draws a late tee time where he is currently fourth on TOUR in terms of late tee-times average scoring at 69.52. I have an outright on Homa at +1800 and if he is to win this week, he’ll need to jump out to a hot start in what will be a birdie-fest.

Rickie Fowler (+3000)

It was just two weeks ago that Fowler shot a 62 in the opening round of the U.S. Open to tie the record for lowest round at an U.S. Open and in turn, shared the lead following Thursday with Schauffele. That was done during an early tee time. He’s back this week with an early tee time as well where he currently ranks second among those in the field in early tee-time average scoring at 68.68. Fowler is also third among the field in terms of my model this week.

Kevin Yu (+7500)

In his first tournament back on TOUR since February at last week’s Travelers Championship, Yu shot a 65 opening round. He too is recovering from a knee injury that sidelined him for some time. The wheels fell a bit off of the Yu train over the weekend but again, playing four rounds in his first tournament back since the knee injury is no easy task. The promising thing I’m getting at is that he played much better in the first two rounds of the Travelers Championship, namely the opening round. He comes in this week fourth in my overall model among those in the field and additionally draws a later tee-time where he currently ranks first among the field in late tee-time average scoring at 68.7.