By: Jake Friedman
Introduction
We head over to South Africa and Australia for the start of the 2023-24 season on the DPWT. I look forward to starting my first full season with the We Know Fantasy team and the Out of the Rough podcast with Nate!
Please refer to Nate's articles for a very in-depth breakdown of each tournament's field, course and more!
Please give me a follow on X @THEJakeFriedman, I constantly post updates and interesting golf content that comes across my feed that you might find interesting or helpful. Any and all support is greatly appreciated!
Joburg Open
We have a pretty weak field over in South Africa this week but that doesn't mean there isn't value in the outirght betting market. This week I'm going to look for golfers who have shown some signs of life over the past few weeks and/or have decent course history here. The key statistics I am looking for this week in a golfer is accuracy off the tee, approach, bogey avoidance, and putting.
Outright Betting Card
I'm having trouble deciding what to do at the top of the board here. I'm between Christian Bezuidenhout, Dan Bradbury, Thriston Lawrence, and Romain Langasque. Lawrence and Langasque both lost out on their potential PGA Tour cards last week. I'm not sure how this will effect them coming into this week. It could easily impact their mental state having to start from square one again to earn that PGA Tour card or it could've lit a fire under them in a weak field tournament to take down the first tournament of the DPWT year. Bradbury is coming into this week in decent form and as the defending champion here. I worry about his horrid around the green and putting stats, which despite his good form leading in, has still been bad. Bezuidenhout's bread and butter is with the irons and the putter which should play well here as he had a T-3 finish last year. It's been a pretty bad year for Bezuidenhout and the price is very steep in my opinion. That being said, I'm not sure what I'm going to do here. Follow me on X @THEJakeFriedman to see my final betting card on Wednesday.
Zander Lombard 33/1 - This is a pure value play for me as all my other books have him at best 22/1. Lombard has made 10 cuts in a row which includes a T-10 at the Cazoo Open de France and a solo 2nd at the Open de España. His skillset showcases distance off the tee but is slightly below average in all other major categories. Fortunately, his recent form voids some of the long term stats that are below average. He has been above average in accuacy off the tee and gained strokes putting in 4 of his last 5. He's also gained strokes on approach in 3 of his last 5. Competing against a weaker field in his home country I think this is a great spot for Lombard to it all come together and win.
Shaun Norris 100/1 - Playing on the Japan Golf Tour, Norris is coming back to his home country in decent form which includes 3 T-10 finishes in his last 5 starts. His tournament history is not to be ingored with a T-3, 3rd, T-3, and T-18 his last 4 times teeing it up here. Another value play for me here as the next best odds I have access to are 70/1, this seems like a good spot to take a shot on Norris.
Marco Penge 120/1 - A Challenge Tour player with no strokes gained data, his line can be found as low as 40/1. In his last 5 times teeing it up he has 2 wins, 2 T-25's and 1 missed cut. That's good enough for me to blind back him in a weaker field tournament on the DPWT. Not knowing how he is gaining strokes is a little unsettling but strictly going off of recent form and perceived value in the betting number gives me some comfort to back him.
It's a very small card right now with 2 long shots but this is what I'm going with. In a weak DPWT event I'll leave myself plenty of room to either pick someone at the top of the board or hit a live line during the tournament. I'll be posting my final card on Wednesday and I will also be posting any live lines I take on X @THEJakeFriedman.
Australian PGA Championship
We head over to Australia for the much stronger DPWT field at the Australian PGA Championship. The ideal golfer for this couse gains off the tee, can get very hot with the irons and putter, and can save themselves when they end up in the sand.
Also, this is a good time to explain a couple different golf bets which I've placed below. A double chance bet is if either player in the bet wins the tournament, your wager will cash in full. A winner without bet excludes the top few players in the tournament from the wager, which for this tournament is Cameron Smith, Min Woo Lee, Cameron Davis, and Mito Periera on most books. I find this bet really useful in a field like this where the top of the betting board has a significantly higher win equity than the rest of the field.
Outright Betting Card
Cameron Smith & Min Woo Lee 2.75/1 (Double Chance) - This is not a very original play but I couldn't get myself away from it. I fell for the trap last week betting Rory, Rahm, Hovland, and Fitzpatrick vs. the field and lost but I'm taking the bait again this week. Although this field is well above what it was last year, Cameron Smith is still far and away the talent of this field. This course profiles perfectly for him as he consistently gains off the tee, can get red hot with his irons and putter, and can get himself out of the sand sufficiently. He has played this tournament 6 times, winning 3 times and his worst finish being T-15. Unless the irons or flat stick let him down, which is rare for Cam Smith, I don't see how he doesn't lift this trophy for the 4th time come Sunday. To back this up incase Smith can't get it done, I have Min Woo Lee in this double chance bet. Min Woo Lee is one of the up and coming super stars of the PGA Tour and is becoming the new face of golf in Australia. He has a very similar profile to Cam Smith where he gains off the tee, can get scorching hot with the irons and putter, and can get out of the sand sufficiently. He's played in this tournament twice and has placed T-3 and T-4. He is a much improved golfer since the last time he teed it up here which is promising that he can get over the finish line on Sunday.
Ryo Hisatsune 12/1 (Winner Without) - I've been on him every DPWT tournament since I joined the Out of the Rough podcast so why stop now. Hisatsune is an elite golfer on the DPWT and is coming in with some great form. In his last 6 starts he has 1 finish outside of the top 20 and he also has a win in there. He placed T-2 here last year in his first start here. Given the recent and tournament form Hisatsune has shown, 12/1 is a more than fair number to take down the field exlcluding the top 4.
Another small card for me here but given the short odds this is what I'm sticking to. Hoping I can get lucky with Cameron Smith/Min Woo Lee winning and Ryo Hisatsune beating out everyone exlcuding the top 4!
As always, good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!