Is it worth reaching for Patrick Mahomes?
Traditionally I’ve always recommended waiting on quarterbacks until at least the eighth round or later.
Looking for QB value in the later rounds and streaming those with good match-ups during the season has won me several leagues. Waiting until the later rounds to snag a QB allows you to fill the more important roles such as the scarce TE or RB1 position. But now we insert Patrick Mahomes into the equation.
Mahomes shattered the NFL record for most passing touchdowns (50) and most passing yards (5,097) in a single season, per The Kansas City Star. Those stats were good enough to out score the next closest QB by four fantasy points per week.
In ESPN’s 2019 draft rankings Mahomes comes in at 45th overall. The QB2-QB5 come in at 70-73 overall. Now, the question we must answer, is Mahomes worth drafting in the fourth round?
Statistically he’s not worth drafting that early. The extra four points per game isn’t worth it since by this round you’ll have so many more important needs to draft. Instead of spending a fourth round pick on Mahomes, use it to increase your RB depth. James White, Marlon Mack, Kerryon Johnson or Damien Williams are just a few names to draft in this spot instead.
I also expect some regression this season. It’s near impossible to duplicate his record breaking season especially if Tyreek Hill isn’t a Chief anymore. ESPN projects Mahomes to score 87.6 LESS fantasy points this season, making his current ADP way overpriced. So be sure to let the other naive owners spend a premium for Mahomes while you snag yourself a valuable RB and wait to draft your QB in the later rounds.