After tackling one of my favorite overall players and running backs from this year’s rookie draft in Cam Akers, we’re moving on to one of the most intriguing receivers.
Jalen Reagor ended up in one of the best landing spots for any receiver in the entire draft. He was taken as the fourth overall receiver by the Philadelphia Eagles at pick 21.
This is a bit of a hand selection by the Eagles with the likes of Justin Jefferson still on the board.
The Eagles needed to find a true slot receiver and they did just that.
This statistical breakdown for the future of Reagor and the Eagles will also include a future stat line for Carson Wentz, as that will help us get to figures for Reagor.
Before we get into the number crunching and mathematical equations, let’s talk generally about Reagor and what makes him and his landing spot so intriguing.
For one, the Eagles’ three most played receivers from a year ago - Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and J.J. Arecega-Whiteside - did not exceed a 58.9-percent catch rate.
Jeffery led the way for the trio with a catch rate of 58.9-percent, placing him 63rd in the league among wide receivers. Agholor came in 76th at 56.5-percent as Arcega-Whiteside finished well outside of the top 100 with a 33.3% catch rate.
What I’m getting at here is, the Eagles were desperate for plug-and-play receiver help and that’s why Reagor gets the best jump-start of all rookie wide-outs.
Break Down
Let’s also take a look at Reagor’s Combine figures. At the combine he measured at 206-pounds, running a 4.47 40-yard dash. He posted a 4.46 short shuttle and 7.31 three-cone-drill as well.
These numbers relate a bit to Agholor as he is 6-foot-0 compared to Reagor’s 5-foot-11 frame and is 198 pounds. He also posted a 4.42 40. This would point towards Reagor stepping in to take Agholor’s slot position (which will happen.)
What is interesting about this is how vastly different his pro day numbers are from those posted at the combine.
He dropped eight pounds to get to 197.6-pounds. He went on to run a 4.22 and 4.28 40-yard-dash. Let’s also not forget that this was a virtual pro day so take these figures with a grain of salt.
Anyhow, his short shuttle was reported to come in at 3.97 and 4.04 as his three-cone-drill was 6.75 and 6.72. All of these are vastly improved from his combine stats.
Now, this can be contributed a bit to the eight pound loss over the month-plus between the two events. But to me, these numbers are way too different for just eight pounds to be the difference.
If the numbers are to be true as reported, this points towards his inability to prepare for important events, such as the NFL combine. However, he still secured a first round selection.
Additionally, if the reports of 4.22 and 4.28 speed are true at 197.6 pounds is true, comparing him to the other speedy receivers of the league, it would put Reagor in a league of his own.
Tyreek Hill, Marquise Goodwin, Bradin Cooks, Tavon Austin and Henry Ruggs, who all have at least 4.34 40-yard-speed, all are at-least 10-pounds lighter than Reagor.
Statistical Breakdown
We can assume that the Eagles will slide Reagor into the slot receiver position, with Agholor now in Las Vegas.
In 2017, Carson Wentz threw to his slot receiver 17-percent of the time and 15-percent of the time in 2018 and 2019. Let’s average this out to 16-percent.
When it comes to the red zone, Wentz turns to his slot receiver even more. In 2017 he targeted his slot receiver 45-percent of the time, 37-percent of the time in 2018 and 22-percent of the time in 2019.
If we take Wentz’ stats over the last four years, and producing 16-game averages in seasons he didn’t play all 16 games, and averaging them out, we get a stat line of 577 attempts, 373 completions, 4,189 yards and 33 touchdowns.
Taking 16-percent of attempts and completions puts Reagor at 92-targets and 60-receptions. From there, Reagor averaged 17.5, 14.7 and 14.2 yards-per-reception across his three years in college.
Pumping that down to 12 yards-per-reception in the NFL puts his yards at 720 yards.
Averaging out Wentz’ red zone targets to his slot receiver from 2017-2019, puts it at 35-percent. At 33 touchdowns that puts Reagor’s potential touchdowns at 12. Let’s remove a few to account for longer passing touchdowns and give him eight.
This puts him at 180 fantasy points with a projected like of 60 receptions, 720 yards and eight touchdowns. This year he would be at WR35.
Something also worth noting is that Wentz ranked sixth in the league last season with 69 deep pass attempts. He also was tied for seventh with a 58-percent deep ball catchable-percentage. With Reagor’s speed, this will add yards, touchdowns and fantasy value.
Reagor may have the most immediate impact of any rookie receiver but in the long-term, his fantasy out-put is limited.