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  • Writer's pictureJake Friedman (@THEJakeFriedman)

Arnold Palmer Invitation DFS & Outright Betting Guide

By: Jake Friedman



Introduction

We go to the second stop of the Florida swing on the PGA Tour for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. One of the most challenging courses played during the year, we are going to see the scoring higher than usual. The defending champion, Kurt Kitayama, won last year with a score of -9.


As always, please refer to Nate's article for a very in-depth breakdown of the tournament's field, course, and more!


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DFS Guide

10k Range

Scottie Scheffler ($11,300) - Not much needs to be said when it comes to Scottie Scheffler. Yes he is going to be one of, if not the highest owned player in DFS. He is also by far one of the most consistent golfers on tour. He is the best tee to green player on the PGA Tour right now. It all comes down to the putter for Scottie which he hasn't gotten right in almost 2 years. When Scottie putts to even or slightly positive, he usually wins or comes awfully close to winning. Scottie rarely places outside the top 10 when he tees it up and in his 3 appearances at this tournament he has a T-15, win, and T-4. I'm willing to headline my lineups with Scottie and try to diversify as I move down to the other ranges.


9k Range

Viktor Hovland ($9,900) - I know we aren't in the mid to low 9k range, but seeing Hovland in this range is an auto play for me. It hasn't been the start to the 2024 season anyone has hoped for Hovland but this seems like a perfect place for him to get his game right. His long term statistics show he is above tour average in driving distance, driving accuracy, approach, around the green, and putting. He placed T-2 here in 2022 and T-10 here in 2023 showing this is a place Hovland can play well and contend at.


Collin Morikawa (9,100) - This seems like a great course for Morikawa and at the bottom end of the 9k range I'm happy to play him. One of, if not the best long iron player on tour, this course should be one that Morikawa thrives at. Although, that hasn't really been the case in his 3 appearances at Bay Hill (T-64, T-9, missed cut). Morikawa has started the season in decent form with 3 top 20's in his 4 appearances. He is also a player with a profile above tour average in the 5 main statistical categories. We will see if Collin can finally match his game up to a course that should play right into his strengths.


8k Range

Cameron Young ($8,700) - After another week of close but no cigar for Young, his lead in form and course history say this could be the week he finally breaks through. 4 Top 20's in his first 6 starts of the season coupled with a T-13 in 2022 and a T-10 here last year at Bay Hill, all signs are pointing to Young this week. Young is very long off the tee and great with the long irons. His ceiling comes down to his around the green play and putting. The putting has been great to start the year which is promising that he is finally trending towards getting over the finish line. For DFS purposes, he seems like a no brainer play.


Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,600) - At this price, this is one of my favorite plays of the week. Fitzpatrick isn't in any form to speak of to start the 2024 season. 2 top 20 finishes in 6 appearances is far less than we would expect for the caliber of player he is. What makes him one of my favorite plays of the week is his incredible course history at Bay Hill. In the past 5 years, Fitzpatrick's worst finish here is T-14. At difficult courses is where Fitzpatrick thrives and I think this is going to be his week. He's above tour average in the 5 main statistical categories and had a good week with the putter last week. This is a get right spot for Fitzpatrick and I think he gets the job done this week not only in DFS, but also in the outright department.


7k Range

Harris English ($7,300) - Another golfer coming in with good form and good course history, I'm turning to English this week. 4 top 20's in 6 starts this season and in his last 3 starts at Bay Hill he has a T-9, T-26, and T-2. His ceiling this week will come down to his approach play which is barely above tour average and has been lackluster to start the season. With how good the off the tee game and putter have been for English, I see him contending on Sunday and being a key piece in DFS lineups.


Luke List ($7,000) - On a course where you can be a bad putter and win, this seems like a great spot to turn back to Luke List after missing the cut last week. Sandwiched between 2 missed cuts is a T-2 at the Genesis which is what I'm looking for in both the outright and DFS. In this range I want someone who can spike a top finish and rack up some low ownership points. An elite player off the tee and with the irons, it comes down to that putter that has haunted list for most of his career. To start the year that putter hasn't been so bad and I think this is the time to take a shot on List.


6k Range

Adam Hadwin ($6,800) - Coming off a top 5 finish at the Genesis, in the 6k range I think Hadwin is a great guy to pivot to. He's above average in 4 of the 5 statistical categories I take into consideration, driving distance being the one he is below average in. It's been a bit of a rollercoaster for Hadwin to start the year with 2 top 10 finishes in 5 appearances, but like I mentioned earlier, this is something I look for in DFS. His course history here is nothing to rave about but he does have a 6th place finish back in 2017 for what it's worth.


Min Woo Lee ($6,600) - I think at this price Min Woo Lee might be one of the highest owned players in DFS and for good reason. This price is absolutely outrageous. A runner up finish last week at PGA National which proved to not be a test at all like the previous years. Min Woo still played great golf and should not be discounted for PGA National losing all of its integrity this year. Min Woo is elite off the tee, around the green and with the putter. It'll all come down to the approach play which seemed to be in good standing last week, although pretty poor outside of that to start the year. He's missed the cut in both of his appearances here but he's a completely different golfer.


Outright Betting Card

Will Zalatoris +3300

Matthew Fitzpatrick +3300

Matthieu Pavon +10000

Luke List +11000

Tom Hoge +11000

Follow me on X for my matchup plays and any live adds to my outright betting card!


Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!

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