Andrew's Open de Portugal (HPT) Preview

With the KFT returning from a long break, one can imagine that the guys grinding it out on the European equivalent are looking across the pond with envy as they continue to pile in the events. There's this week in Portugal and next week in Italy before a brief and welcome break and then restricted field events in China and the Grand Final on Majorca (in Spain). This is the tough part of the season and we've got another tough event. After all three of our players showed signs of making noise, and all ultimately failed to deliver last week, we go again.

The Tournament

The Royal Obidos Golf Club will host the Portuguese national open for the sixth consecutive year. By this point, we know what we are getting, and we know what we need. This is a tee-to-green test in which power is helpful but not essential - very much like last week. So yes, we have the likes of Pierre Pineau (2022) and Marco Penge (2023) winning, but Matt Oshrine (2024) isn't the longest, and he was joined in the top ten by the likes of John Parry and Deon Germishuys, who don't give it a whack - and by Robin Williams, who really does. Those who don't belt it can hit great irons, though, and with plenty of danger holes, our winner will need to plot a route around.

Winning scores have varied between -11 last year and -19 on this 7,222 yard par 71. It will be played in challenging conditions again this year with blustery winds throughout and especially over the weekend, which again might reduce the opportunities for the out-and-out bombers. I'd like to see some experience in coastal golf, or playing effectively in the wind. If contenders have been on the tour for a while they ought to have some positive experience at this event, and for recent comparable courses I'd look no further than last week's Rosa Challenge.

The Selections

First of all, I'm going back to the well with JC Ritchie, who played nicely last week without ever seriously competing. He played this event for the first time last year and finished 15th and coming in on better form can easily outstrip that performance. Placed eighth on the Road to Majorca standings, he is in with a realistic chance of topping the leaderboard as he plays courses that will suit from here to the end of the season. This South African native has won the Cape Town Open as one of many results demonstrating that coastal and wind-impacted golf has been a major part of his development.

The same can be said for our second selection, Callum Fyfe, who finished seventh last week as he continues to charge up the Road to Majorca rankings. At 26th, he's closing in on a DPWT card but needs more results. His performance in the wind in Denmark (second) shows that he's content in tough conditions and his class and recent form are not reflected in his odds. He's played this course once before when far from an HPT regular in 2022, and he was 30th.

Finally I'm taking a flyer on "Mr September", Philipp Katich. One of the unlikelier repeat winners in history, Katich took the second stage qualifier medal at Isla Canela (in Huelva, on the Spanish coast very close to Portugal) in 2022 and 2023, and the young German seems to play his best golf in Iberia in Autumn. He was tenth here on debut last year and the former German Amateur Champion is still just 24 and is improving all the time. He was fourth in the German Challenge this year and can place again in what is effectively his second golfing home.

• JC Ritchie, 25/1

• Calum Fyfe, 60/1

• Philip Katich, 175/1

All 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365.