Andrew's BMW Charity Pro-Am (KFT) Preview

I said last week that we needed to enjoy the last week of a high quality golf course, and Trace Crowe certainly did. Freed from the suffocating weight of being my selection he took a win at a romp. After a very few days, we’re back – the usual schedule even tighter for many of these players who took in a 36-hole qualifier in Durham, or further afield, for the forthcoming US Open. The good news for the players is that the travel is pretty light – from Raleigh, NC last week, via Durham, NC to Greer, SC. A pity we aren’t making the trip with serious wealth to benefit from but Shad Tuten hit too many bogeys to truly compete and so we rebuild to go again.

The Tournament

The BMW Charity Pro-Am does what it says on the tin. This is a pro-am, so expect easy scoring and hideously long rounds for the first couple of days. The players are split between the host Thornblade Club and the nearby Carolina Country Club for the first two days, with those making the cut playing a further two rounds at Thornblade. I believe I’m right in saying that the amateur partners are cleared out of the way after Saturday for a final round on Sunday with slightly tougher pins and no messing about.

That said, this isn’t a challenging set-up, and neither course is difficult or memorable. Both play to around 6,900 yards, with Thornblade a par 71 and marginally shorter than Carolina’s par 72. Ryan Gerard won in -26 last year and we haven’t seen a winning score below -20 since Stephan Jaeger won back in 2019 when three courses were used and the setup was marginally tougher. There’s really nothing much else to say – obviously distance isn’t a huge advantage this week, we’re looking for players in form who can hit the ball close, putt well and ideally have experience of this format or this event.

Selections

I thought long and hard about avoiding the top of the market altogether, and given the lottery nature of the format that did appeal. However, the list of past winners suggests that class does tend to rise to the top (Max Homa, Jaeger, Mito Pereira, even Adrien Dumont de Chassart) and I don’t think there are many classier players than Seonghyeon Kim, in form and coming back for a second win inside a month. My only concern is his recent (comparative) weakness in final rounds. However, he tops the field in par breakers (30.41-percent, despite having played in some of the tougher events that can ruin statistics) and he’s always been great on low-scoring courses – second on the PGA Tour at Silverado with -19, winning the recent AdventHealth with -20, etc. Although he hasn’t played this before he’s gone well in Pebble Beach suggesting he can cope with the infuriating delays offered by this game.

Second on the list is Carter Jenkins. The UNC graduate is clearly playing close to home in the Carolinas and he’s enjoying a strong season, having finished third to Kim in the AdventHealth at a similarly straightforward test. He was fifth here in 2023 and currently ranks 15th in par breakers for the season. He’ll feast on these par-fives and is absolutely overpriced to be a popular breakthrough local winner.

Finally, Spencer Ralston is a very long price indeed and I think that’s an error. Beginning with the statistics (they matter but I rarely start there, in this case they make a compelling argument) he’s seventh in greens in regulation, 29th in putting average and 14th in birdie average. Put all that together on a simple course and you have a man very likely to score heavily. Eightenth at the absurdly straightforward Texas Rangers Golf Course in the Veritex shows that he can do just that. He grew up a couple of hours away in Gainesville, GA and this is another local boy who can make a breakthrough, with his current form good enough to banish his poor history in the event, a drag which is more than made up for by the price.

• SH Kim, 30/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365.

• Carter Jenkins, 66/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Sporting Index.

• Spencer Ralston, 300/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365.