What is Antonio Browns' Fantasy Value?
Here we go again.
Just like the on-going Josh Gordon saga, we now have the Antonio Brown version.
Like Josh Gordon, Brown was heavily tied to the Seattle Seahawks upon his potential return to the league. However, unlike Gordon, Brown chose to take his talents elsewhere.
The elsewhere is to team up with Tom Brady for the second time, following a one game stint in 2019.
So, now we get the big question. What is his fantasy football value?
Ultimately, we don’t know, so we’ll take our best stab as where to set expectations for the return of arguably the league’s most talented wide receiver.
Before we get into the statistical breakdown of the move, remember, he was on two NFL rosters last year; the Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots. However, he played just one game, but he did produce there (8 targets, 4 receptions, 56 yards and 1 TD.)
Brown is able to return to action in Week 9, after the conclusion of his eight game suspension that was handed down by the NFL due to “multiple violations of the league's personal-conduct policy.”
We are preparing for Week 7, so the first game Brown will be eligible to play in (pending his physical and COVID-19 test) would be the Bucs’ Week 9 game with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night Football on Nov. 8.
So let’s get statistical about this.
Brady is averaging 37 pass-attempts-per-game. Chris Godwin is averaging seven targets-per-game as Mike Evans averages six. Scott Miller averages four as the combination of Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette average six.
That there accounts for 23-of-the-37 attempts-per-game by Brady.
We can take the likes of Miller out of the equation and add a couple of more targets to Antonio Brown to say he averages five-to-six targets a game.
Lets not forget that he is on the wrong side of 30 (32) and has played one meaningful game of football since 2018.
Lets use 12 yards-per-reception as he averaged 12.5 in 2018. That would put him between 60 and 72 yards, on average, per game.
I don’t think the touchdowns will come for Brown, as the bigger receivers and tight ends will continue to get those looks from Brady.
Let's also not forget that Brady’s arm strength is limited so pushing the ball downfield, which happens to be Brown’s strong suite, isn’t there.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he averaged around the 10 fantasy points mark weekly, with the odd big game.
Not bad. But, what price are you paying for him?
On the We Know Fantasy Podcast this week I told the listeners not to get worried about adding Brown because he wasn’t on an NFL roster.
Now that he is, he is worth a roster spot, for sure.
However, in FAAB leagues, people are going to spend a ton for him, investing nearly all of their rest-of-the-season funds. Don’t be that guy.
This is still a troubled player at age 32 who played just one game in well over two years. He has both on the field and off the field problems.
I don’t have a problem with him being rostered, I have a problem in overpaying for him, which will happen.
Also, tread lightly as he could face further suspensions as his rape allegation case is still ongoing.