Here is a review of your options to start at QB that you may be able to find available in your leagues. For this article, I am looking at options that are rostered in less than 50% of either ESPN and Yahoo leagues**. I’ll be looking for games with high implied point totals, ideally for a team that is supposed to win, but also looking at past trends to see if there are any matchup specific notes worth taking into consideration. As the season progresses, we’ll compare our points per game (combining the stats of our ‘Weekly QB of Record) to that of other QBs to see where you could stack up by just punting the position on draft day!
** Ownership and odds gathered 10/5/2021
Heinicke got there late, finishing with 27.9 points when his game winning drive was complete. We’ll look to keep the momentum going to climb further into the QB1 ranks as the season progresses.
2021 Points Per Game: 21.88 (QB11)
Stream of the Week (Weekly QB of record):
Sam Darnold vs PHI (ESPN 27%; Yahoo 38%; Sleeper 42.7%)
-4 // 45 (Implied totals: W 24.5 – 20.5)
Sam Darnold more than picked up the slack for CMC’s absence last week, scoring 2 additional rushing TDs (that’s now 5 in 4 games). The added points from his legs make him a great asset for any fantasy squad, and he’ll continue to put up great numbers against an Eagles defense that has allowed 41 & 42 points over the past 2 weeks. In that span, they’ve allowed 8 passing TDs, and Carolina has the weapons to continue that trend.
Alternative Options:
Trey Lance @ ARI (ESPN 24.2%; Yahoo 31%; Sleeper 46.7%)
5.5 // 56.5 (Implied totals: L 22.25 – 27.75)
While I typically like to target QBs expected to win, I’ll make an exception for a game with a 56.5 o/u. Lance is in line to start with Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with a calf injury (please note that Garoppolo *HAS NOT* been ruled out, yet – in the event that Garoppolo starts, you cannot trust Lance). After watching Lance put up 20.38 points *IN A HALF* - I’m really looking forward to seeing what he can do with a full game.
Matt Ryan vs NYJ (ESPN 33.7%; Yahoo 53%; Sleeper 40.8%)
-3 // 46 (Implied totals: W 24.5 – 21.5)
Week 4 showed us the Falcons passing attack we were expecting (just not from WHO we were expecting). Matt Ryan torched the Washington defense for 283 yards and 4 TDs. If Cordarrelle Patterson can continue to play this well and Ridley and Pitts stay healthy, Matty Ice can keep going. His opponent this week, the New York Jets, have been a bit counterintuitive. While they were supposed to be stout against the run, they’ve given up 6 rushing TDs to only 2 passing TDs. That said, they’re starting a 2nd year player who hasn’t even played a full 16 (or 17) games in his career and a 6th round rookie as their starting CBs. Matt Ryan should be able to take advantage, and I don’t think Atlanta has the consistent running game to score on the ground.
Other Options for Deeper Leagues:
Taylor Heinicke vs NO (ESPN 15.0%; Yahoo 10%; Sleeper 19.2%)
Jacoby Brissett @ TB (ESPN 3.2%; Yahoo 3%; Sleeper 8.1%)
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