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  • Writer's pictureJake Friedman (@THEJakeFriedman)

Valspar Championship DFS & Outright Betting Guide

By: Jake Friedman



Introduction

After an exciting finish down the stretch with of of the most egregious lip outs we've seen in a while, the PGA Tour stays in Florida again for the Valspar Championship. This tournament is hosted at Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook resort. The defending champion, Taylor Moore, won here last year with a score of -10. Before him, Sam Burns was the 2-time defending champion at this event.


As always, please refer to Nate's article for a very in-depth breakdown of the tournament's field, course, and more!


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DFS Guide

10k Range - I'm banking on Xander eating the most ownership in this range after his runner up finish last week at The Players and his incredible form


Sam Burns ($10,900) - There's something about this place that just clicks for Burns. In 2018 he finished T12, in 2019 he finished T30, he won back to back in 2021 and 2022, then finished 6th here last year in 2023. Pair that course history with his hot start to the 2024 season and I think Burns should be headlining your DFS lineups. Burns profiles as a long hitter off the tee, who is slightly inaccurate compared to Tour average. He's a good irons player, great putter, and above average around the green player. If Burns finds himself in the fairway enough I see him winning this tournament for the 3rd time as his irons and putter generally show up for him when needed.


Justin Thomas ($10,400) - Another player with a great track history at this tournament. Outside of a missed cut in 2017, Thomas has finished inside the top 20 in his 6 other appearances here. In 2022 he finished T3 and in 2023, a year that didn't show much of any hope for Thomas, he finished T10. We know what we get with JT. A long hitter off the tee who is elite on approach and around the greens. Similar to Burns, it'll come down to finding himself in the fairway enough to score. It also comes down to the putter for JT which started promising but has definitely lost some steam.


9k Range - Similar to the 10k range, I'm banking on Brian Harman eating the most ownership in this range after his runner up finish last week at The Players and his incredible form


Sungjae Im ($9,400) - It's been a very cold start to the 2024 season for Sungjae but this is a course that profiles well to his game. I was very suprised to see that for a guy who seems to play every single week that he's only played here twice. Back in 2019 he had a T4 and in 2021 he had a T29. Over the long term, Sungjae brings an accurate driver to the table with great approach, around the green, and putting. Why I think Sungjae pieces it together this week is because over the past 2 weeks he's gained strokes off the tee, on approach and around the green. If he can get that putter back in the green and keep the other stuff rolling I see Im having a great finish this week at a respectably low ownership.


Nick Taylor ($9,100) - I'll lead by saying he's going to get quite a bit of ownership, but for good reason. He broke my heart last week with a horrible Saturday which took him out of contention. His course history here is a bit of a mixed bag but a T10 last year gives me some promise. He's been playing some great golf to start the year and his accuracy off the tee, approach with the irons, and elite putter should set him up for success here. He's one of my favorite plays of the week.


8k Range

Doug Ghim ($8,400) - Another player who is going to be awfully popular but for good reason. Ghim has been scorching hot over the past couple weeks with his worst finish being T16 since the end of January to now. He's essentially gained across the board in his last 5 tournaments. Ghim is extremely accurate off the tee and is above average on approach, around the green, and putting. In his last 2 starts he's nearly gained a stroke per round with the flat stick. With a missed cut in 2021 and a T27 last year at this event, given his current for I wouldn't be surprised to see Ghim lift the trophy on Sunday.


Beau Hossler ($8,300) - The Valspar hasn't been too kind to Hassler missing the cut in 4 of his 5 appearances. Throwing last weeks missed cut out at The Players, Hossler had made his previous 12 cuts and had 6 T20's or better in those 12. Hossler is a great around the green player and putter which is important here. His week will come down to putting the ball in the fairway which he's gained on the field in 3 of his last 4 starts and his approach play. His irons have been a bit of a seesaw up and down each week but after an abysmal week with them last week maybe we can get lucky with an insane week with them this week.


7k Range

Sepp Straka ($7,900) - We've only seen Sepp at this venue once and it was back in 2019 where he placed T46. I think he will be popular in the 7k range but his game profiles nicely for this course. Straka is accurate off the tee and great with the irons. Over the long term he is an above average putter even though he's lost strokes with the flat stick in his last 6 starts. If he can flip that putter to the green and build off of his T16 finish last week at The Players I can see another positive week for Straka here.


Sam Ryder ($7,300) - I'm impressed with Ryder the past 2 weeks finishing T21 at the Cognizant and T16 at The Players. Although his course history isn't anything to write home about, he did have a nice finish here last year with a T19. Ryder is above average in the main areas of the game I'm looking at this week which are driving accuracy, approach, and putting. Given the recent form, recent course history, and attributes he brings, I think Ryder is going to have a big week.


6k Range

Lee Hodges ($6,600) - I had to dig but I think I found a diamond in the rough here with lee Hodges. His course history here is pretty bad despite profiling well at this course. Hodges is accurate off the tee, and above average on approach and with the flat stick. What I really like to see is that he's gained over a stroke per round with the flat stick his last 2 starts and over one stroke per round on approach in one of those as well. If he can keep up those numbers this week I think he's the diamond in the rough that can win you DFS contests.


Alexander Bjork ($6,400) - A DPWT veteran who earned his tour card for the 2024 season is who I'm turning to at the bottom of my lineups. Although he hasn't played here before, I like how his game profiles this week. He hasn't quite adjusted yet to the PGA Tour with a couple of missed cuts and below average finished but this is the week he gets himself on track. His profile is an extremely short driver of the golfball but for what's lacked in power is gained in accuracy. He's above average on approach and with the putter and slightly below average in around the green. At what I project to be a very low ownership, I like Bjork as another diamond in the rough to finish out lineups.


Outright Betting Card

Nick Taylor +4000 0.44U

Doug Ghim +7000 0.25U

Sam Ryder +10000 0.18U


I also have 2 parlays, 1 with Justin Thomas and 1 with Sam Burns to try and get them on the card at +2900 and +2500, respectively. Both parlays are posted in the Discord!


Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!

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