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  • Writer's pictureJake Friedman (@THEJakeFriedman)

The Masters DFS & Outright Betting Guide

By: Jake Friedman



Introduction

Ladies and gentleman, the time has finally come. We have made to to Augusta for this seasons first major, The Masters. This tournament is circled on the calendar every year and the weekends are reserved for sitting on the couch and just watching the coverage for 10 hours a day.


Augusta National is one of, if not the most, iconic golf courses in the United States. Augusta National is a par 72 course measuring over 7,500 yards. Course history is extremely important here as the last debutant winner was back in 1979.


As always, please refer to Nate's article for a very in-depth breakdown of the tournament's field, course, and more!


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DFS Guide

I’ve structured this section a little differently than my previous articles. There are 3 selections for each price range:

  • The chalk is the player in the range I project to have the highest ownership.

  • The game theory play is the player in the range I project to have the lowest ownership.

  • Jake’s pick is my favorite player in the range


10k+ Range

The Chalk - Scottie Scheffler ($12,100) - By far the most popular play this week will be Scottie Scheffler at a mere $12,100. I was surprised not to see him at a higher salary, but regardless he will be in the 25-35% ownership this week. We all know that Scottie's ceiling is blowing the field out by 5 strokes and his floor is probably a top 20. For DFS purposes, he's as close to a sure thing as it comes. In his 4 appearances at The Masters, he has a T19, T18, a win, and a T10. He is the best tee to green player on the PGA TOUR. He is elite in driving distance and accuracy, approach, and around the greens. His ceiling is determined week in and week out by the putter which he's actually gained strokes on in his last 3 appearances. His recent form includes winning the API, winning The Players, and a T2 at the Houston Open. His course history, recent form, and player profile points to Scottie having a great week at Augusta, but is he worth a play in DFS at the ownership? Personally I will be playing him in a couple of lineups, but will not be overweight on him.


The Game Theory Play - Wyndham Clark ($10,000) - In a stacked range with the world's most elite golfers, Wyndham Clark is the one who doesn't fit in. Although he's been one of the best players on the PGA Tour, this is his first appearance at The Masters. As I mentioned in the intro, course history is paramount here at Augusta. His recent form includes a win back in February at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 2 runner up finishes to Scottie Scheffler at the API and The Players. Clark is long off the tee and above average in approach, around the green and putting. Where he struggles is accuracy off the tee which is not the most important factor at Augusta. I have his ownership projected at 10-20% which in this range is very low. I will absolutely be playing a couple lineups with Wyndham Clark to diversify at the top of the board.


Jake's Play - Rory McIlroy ($10,800) - Yes, you are reading this correctly. The one major that has eluded Rory his entire career is where I'm turning to him for my DFS lineups. Aside from Wyndham Clark who has never played The Masters before, he is the only other non-winner of this event in this price range. It's also been a bit of a struggle this season for Rory with his only top 5 finish coming last week at The Valero Texas Open. His long term Masters history is very good with 7 top 10 finishes in 15 appearances, although he's missed the cut in 2 of his last 3. Rory's game is bombs away off the tee and above average approach, around the green, and putting. He's slightly below tour average in driving accuracy but that doesn't concern me too much. I'm projecting Rory as the second lowest owned player in this range and although I don't think he will win the tournament, I think he will be in contention on Sunday and add another top 10 finish at The Masters to his resume.


9k Range

The Chalk - Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) - I was shocked to see this price next to Hideki this week and I think he he's going to be in the 25-35% ownership category with Scottie Scheffler. The 2021 Masters champions has been playing some incredible golf in the 2024 season. Despite the injury reports every week, Hideki has managed to win The Genesis and string together some great form coming into this week with a T12 at the API, T6 at The Players, and a T7 last week at the Valero Texas Open. His approach and around the green numbers have been phenomenal as they generally are with Hideki. He's about Tour average in the other 3 categories which are driving distance, driving accuracy, and putting. It'll come down to the putting for how well Hideki does this week. Outside of his victory in 2021, Hideki has played very well here with 8 top 20 finishes in 12 starts. Given the current form, history at this event, and price, the ownership is warranted but aside from maybe 1 lineup, I'm going to try and steer clear. The ownership is going to be too high for this price range unless you plan on diversifying your other 5 players pretty heavily.


The Game Theory Play - Viktor Hovland ($9,500) - It has been a miserable 2024 season for Viktor Hovland which I was not expecting after his insane finish to the 2023 season. The around the green woes are back and it's not pretty, especially coming into Augusta where around the green play is very important. Despite the poor start, the off the tee numbers and approach have remained fairly positive. In his 4 Masters appearances, Hovland has a T32, T21, T27, and T7 which is pretty solid. We've only seen Hovland on the PGA Tour 5 times and he's managed to place in the top 20 only once. Hovland is above average in driving distance, driving accuracy, approach, and putting. As I mentioned before, the around the green game is a bit of a disaster at the moment. The silver lining here is that his around the green play has been a disaster his whole career and he's still managed to have some decent results here. It's a scary play with how bad of form he's in but I will be firing off some Hovland lineups for the low ownership.


Jake's Play - Xander Schauffele ($9,900) - Although he will be either the highest or second highest owned in this price range, I couldn't help but turn to Xander here. In 8 starts during the 2024 season, Xander has 6 top 10 finishes which is incredible. Crossing the finish line hasn't been Xander's strong suit, but in DFS we just need a top finish to score us some points. In 6 Masters appearances, he has 4 top 20 finishes which is on brand with how his current form is. He is above average in all 5 statistical categories, but he is elite on approach, around the green, and putting which will all be very important this week. Although I don't think he has the mental ability to win here, his current form and game point to being successful and bringing in a top finish this week.


8k Range

The Chalk - Tony Finau ($8,600) - Fan favorite Tony Finau is going to be the most popular selection in this 8k range. His Masters history is is very solid with a T10, T5, T38, T10, T35, and T26. His recent form is also pretty solid coming into Augusta off of a T2 at the Houston Open. Finau has 4 top 20 finishes in 9 starts this year to go along with that. His game should be conductive to a good finish at Augusta if the putter cooperates. He is long and accurate off the tee and elite on approach and around the greens. The putter is pretty awful but if he can get the flat stick rolling even just a little he should be primed up for a great finish this week. I’m going to steer clear here of Finau just due to my projection of high ownership.


The Game Theory Play - Shane Lowry ($8,000) - Lowry sticks out like a sore thumb in this range but his current form and recent Masters history is undeniable. After a rough 4 starts to his Masters resume, in his last 4 appearances he’s added a T25, T21, T3, and T16. In his last 3 PGA Tour starts he has 2 top 5 finishes at the Cognizant Classic and API. The Irishman brings an average driving distance with great accuracy, very good approach, and slightly above average around the green and putting game. I don’t think Lowry is going to win the green jacket come Sunday but I do think he will have a very solid week at some low ownership. I’ll be adding him to a few of my lineups.


Jake's Play - Collin Morikawa ($8,400) - The course history and the style of play is there for Morikawa to have a great week, but unfortunately the current form is nowhere to be found. In his last 3 starts his best finish is a T45, and no that is not a typo. The putting and the approach play have let him down in those 3 starts which is a bit of a surprise when talking about the irons. Over the long term, Morikawa is an extremely accurate driver of the golf ball, elite with the irons, good around the greens, and about average with the flat stick. He is one of the best long iron players on Tour which is important here. His course history is great with finishes of T44, T18, 5, and T10 in his career. Morikawa is a big game hunter and when the lights are shining, he tends to step up and perform. I’m going to take my chances that he can find his best golf at Augusta and give me some value in DFS.


7k Range

The Chalk - Sahith Theegala ($7,700) - One of my favorite players on the PGA Tour is unfortunately going to be headlining the chalk of the 7k range. In his debut at The Masters last year, Theegala finished in 9th with a very impressive outing. His elite short game was of full display and has been with him in recent form. In his 9 starts this season, he has 4 top 10 finishes at The Sentey ToC, WM Phoenix Open, the API, and The Players. All of those fields had the best of the PGA Tour. Theegala can be a little wild off the tee but gains on the field in distance off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting. As I mentioned before, his short game is elite and I’d argue he’s the second most creative player around the greens behind just Jordan Spieth. Similar to Morikawa, when the lights are on and everyone is watching, Theegala tends to step up and show out. Even though he will be highly owned this week, I won’t be able to help myself. He will be in a couple of my lineups without a doubt.


The Game Theory Play - Min Woo Lee ($7,300) - I don’t think I was alone in expecting a lot more from Min Woo Lee this year and we really haven’t gotten anything at all. He has 1 top 5 finish in 7 starts, with his next best finish being T21 at the first event he played in 2024 on the PGA Tour. In his 2 previous appearances at Augusta, he has a T14 and a missed cut. The course history ceiling is there, but the floor is also very low. Over the long term, Min Woo is extremely long off the tee and brings an elite short game with both his around the green work and putter. He tends to spray it off the tee and is slightly below Tour average on approach, although I’m a believer in his irons. Depending on how low the ownership is will be the amount of lineups I play him in but there has not been much signs of life this season. I’m banking on his elite short game to carry him to a made cut and solid finish this week.


Jake's Play - Adam Scott ($7,100) - I’m turning to the 2013 Masters champion for my selection in the 7k range. In his 20 Masters appearances, he’s only missed the cut twice. His recent history at The Masters is nothing special but some of the golf we’ve seen from Adam Scott this year has been really good. In 6 PGA Tour starts he has 4 top 20 finishes. If you want to throw in the 3 DPWT events he played before that he has finishined top 20 in 7 of his last 9 starts. Scott is above average in driving distance, approach, around the green, and putting. He can be a little wild off the tee at times. The putter has been scorching hot the last 2 weeks gaining, on average, about 1.5 strokes per round over his last 2 starts. I’m a little concerned about the ownership but he will be in my lineups for sure this week.


6k Range

The Chalk - Adam Hadwin ($6,600) - It will be between Hadwin and McCarthy for most owned in this range but for the sake of this article, I’m going to talk about the Canadian. In his 3 Masters appearances, he has a T36, T24 and a missed cut. Not the best course history but also for the 6k range it’s not the worst. Hadwin has had a touch and go season 3 top 10 finishes in 9 starts including one at The Genesis. He is a very well rounded golfer only coming in slightly under Tour average in driving distance. He has a very solid approach game and short game. I think the ownership, especially for this range, is warranted but I’m going to steer clear of Hadwin this week.


The Game Theory Play - J.T. Poston ($6,800) - In this range, anyone less than 3% owned could be considered for this category, but I’m going to talk about J.T. Poston who might be at or higher than that 3% mark. In 2 career appearances at The Masters he has a missed cut and a T34. Although Poston had started the season out hot, his past 3 appearances have been pretty bad. He only has 1 missed cut this season which is promising. His player profile shows a short but accurate driver of the golf ball with above average approach, around the green, and putting. If the irons can get dialed and the putter gets hot, I’d expect Poston to have a great week. He will make his way into a couple of my lineups this week.


Jake's Play - Eric Cole ($6,600) - I’m not an Eric Cole truther like some of the community, but I do actually like him this week at Augusta. This is Cole’s debut at The Masters so there’s not history here, but I love how his game matches up to Augusta. He is just under Tour average in driving distance and is below average in driving accuracy. This is made up for with his well above average approach, around the green and putting game. It look like every other week Cole misses the cut and then has a solid finish. The hit or miss is the risk reward I’m looking for in the 6k range. In the 2023 majors Cole played, he finished T15 at the PGA Championship and T39 at the U.S. Open. I’m taking my chances here that Cole shows up and has a great finish.


Outright Betting Card


Please make sure you set your unit size appropriately, especially when it comes to outright betting. I personally risk 2.5 units per week to return 17.5 units on each outright play (netting me a profit of 15 units on an outright winner).


Will Zalatoris +5000* 0.35U - If you know me, you know my love for Will Zalatoris. He is an extremely talented golfer who continuously shows up when the lights are shining on him. In his 2 Masters appearances he’s finished 2 and T6. Outside of people who have won, there’s no better course history resume than Zalatoris. Something about Augusta fits Zalatoris’s game and it’s crazy to say but from what we’ve seen, he’s comfortable at Augusta. Zalatoris is long and accurate off the tee and bring along an elite approach game. His around the green and putting metrics are below Tour average but I am a believer in his putter. I think it’s a misconception that he’s a bad putter just because his stroke is a little weird and he’s missed some short putts. He’s a great lag putter which is always important. His short term form isn’t anything to write home about but he does have 3 top 20 finishes in his 7 starts in the 2024 season. I’m optimistic this is the week Will pu


Sahith Theegala +5500 0.32U - Another one of my favorite players on the PGA Tour finds his way on my betting card. In his debut at The Masters last year, Theegala finished in 9th with a very impressive outing. His elite short game was of full display and has been with him in recent form. In his 9 starts this season, he has 4 top 10 finishes at The Sentey ToC, WM Phoenix Open, the API, and The Players. All of those fields had the best of the PGA Tour. Theegala can be a little wild off the tee but gains on the field in distance off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting. As I mentioned before, his short game is elite and I’d argue he’s the second most creative player around the greens behind just Jordan Spieth. Similar to Morikawa, when the lights are on and everyone is watching, Theegala tends to step up and show out.


Min Woo Lee +8000 0.31U - This is a future I had put in just as the season began and it's not looking too hot. I don’t think I was alone in expecting a lot more from Min Woo Lee this year and we really haven’t gotten anything at all. He has 1 top 5 finish in 7 starts, with his next best finish being T21 at the first event he played in 2024 on the PGA Tour. In his 2 previous appearances at Augusta, he has a T14 and a missed cut. The course history ceiling is there, but the floor is also very low. Over the long term, Min Woo is extremely long off the tee and brings an elite short game with both his around the green work and putter. He tends to spray it off the tee and is slightly below Tour average on approach, although I’m a believer in his irons. I'm not feeling so great with this ticket in my hand and wouldn't recommend putting this in now, but maybe I can get lucky.


Akshay Bhatia +10000 0.18U - Fresh off of cashing my +6500 ticket last week on him, I said if he were to win and open at triple digits I would take him and I am a man of my word. Lefty's play Augusta really well over the years. The course just fits the eye of a lefty extremely well. After blowing the field out last week along with Denny McCarthy who gave him a run for his money, I'm hopeful Akshay can keep some momentum going into his first Masters appearance. Yes, I know, the last time a debutant won was over 40 years ago but I truly believe that Akshay is a generational talent. At just 22 years old, he has 2 career PGA Tour wins under his belt. His last 3 starts he has a T17, T11, and a win. He drives the ball far and accurately which is rare. He is also an elite iron player and his short game is about tour average, although he's gained with the flat stick in his last 3 starts and gained around the green in 2 of his last 3 starts. For me, hitting Akshay last week and running him back this week is like when you hit a number in roulette and keep your chips on the number for the next spin.


Brian Harman +10600* 0.17U - As I mentioned previously, leftys tend to play Augusta really well over the years. Therefore, I had to get a lefty in on my card this week. His Masters history is not all that impressive with a missed cut, T44, T12, missed cut, and missed cut. With that being said, Harman won The Open Championship last year and has been playing some of the best golf in his career. Harman has 4 top 20 finishes in 10 starts this season which is highlighted by a T12 at the API and a T2 at The Players. Aside from being short off the tee, Harman is decently above the Tour average in driving distance, approach, around the green, and putting. He's hasn't only proven that he can win a major, he's proven that he can run away with it and maintain a lead. At these odds, I couldn't pass up taking a chance on him.

Russell Henley +11000 0.16U - I took this bet on Friday last week after watching him play well and finish well at the Valero Open. I was happy to see the form he was coming into Augusta with and his course history. Henley has 3 top 5 finishes this season in 8 starts at the Sony Open, the API, and the Valero Open. He also has 4 top 20 finishes at The Masters in his 7 career starts. Similar to Harman, outside of driving distance, he is well above Tour average in driving accuracy, approach, around the green, and putting. I saw enough last week to warrant the bet at this number for a guy who has a decent track record here.


*Effective odds after boosts, parlays or free play


I will be adding to my card as the week goes on! I’ll update the article and post my plays on X so be sure to check back for my full write up!


Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!

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