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  • Writer's pictureJake Friedman (@THEJakeFriedman)

The Genesis Invitational DFS & Outright Betting Guide

By: Jake Friedman



Introduction:

The PGA Tour heads back over to California for the Genesis Invitational. This is an elevated event so the rest of the PGA Tour stars that are left will be in attendance. This event is hosted by none other than Tiger Woods, who generous gave himself one of the exemptions to play in this tournament.


As always, please refer to Nate's article for a very in-depth breakdown of the tournament's field, course, and more!


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DFS Guide

10k Range

Scottie Scheffler ($11,500) - There's never a sure thing in life, but Scottie Scheffler T-10 is as close as it comes in golf. Easily the best tee to green player on tour who has put him self in a position to win almost every time he tees it up for the past year and a half. The putter is what determines Scheffler's fate and he's surprisingly gained with the flat stick the last 2 weeks. He's a very safe play in DFS and I'll be looking to him to headline a couple lineups for me this week.


Viktor Hovland ($10,000) - A late W/D last week and a pretty abysmal start at Pebble Beach, I'm turning to Hovland to bounce back at Riviera at a discounted ownership. We know the skillset Hovland brings to the table. He is above average in driving distance, driving accuracy, approach, around the green and putting which is a recipe to be successful at any tournament you tee it up at. In his 3 appearances at Riviera he has 2 top 5 finishes and 1 top 20 finish. Throw out the week at Pebble and turn to Hovland for a nice bounce back this week.


9k Range

Collin Morikawa ($9,500) - It's time to turn back to Morikawa this week. With some crazy weather at Pebble he still managed to turn in a top 15 finish at Pebble. It seems like Morikawa always plays his best golf in California. The past 2 years at Riviera Morikawa has finished T-2 and T-6. Morikawa is one of the best approach players on tour and especially with the long irons which will be in hand a lot this week. I'm looking to Collin to keep his course history rolling with another T-10 finish this week.


Justin Thomas ($9,100) - This will be one of the most popular plays in DFS this week but for good reason. Thomas has started the season in some incredible form which is a complete 180 from what we had to watch all of last season. Thomas is world class when it comes to approach and around the greens. Historically it's been the driving accuracy and putter that have held him back in tournaments. It's been a welcome sight for the putter to be positive this season, although he is still struggling with his driving accuracy. His recent form coupled with his course history here (3 top 10 finishes) and low price (in my opinion) makes him a must play this week.


8k Range

Sam Burns ($8,700) - My first click in the betting market this morning and at $8,700 also my first click in DFS, how can you not turn to Sam Burns. Outside of Justin Thomas, Burns is a very close second in current form entering the 2024 season. 3 top 10 finishes in his last 3 starts including a T-3 last week at the Waste Management, the putter has been the key to Burns' success. Gaining 2.04, 1.81, and 1.11 strokes per round with the flat stick over his last 3 starts, respectively, he is one of the hottest and best putters on tour. Couple that with his success driving the ball and on approach his last 2 starts he's going to be competing on Sunday to lift the trophy.


Cameron Young ($8,500) - I couldn't help but turn to Cam Young this week after what I saw last week at the Waste Management. It's been a bumpy ride for Cam Young but it seems like he might be turning a corner, similar to Justin Thomas. Young has 2 top 10 finishes in his last 3 starts and is coming to a course that profiles extremely well for him. In his 2 starts at Riviera he finished T-2 and T-20. It'll be the putter that determines his success this week and after seeing him gain 1.36 strokes per round with the flat stick last week, I'm ready to fire Cam Young up in my lineups this week.


Adam Scott ($8,200) - My favorite DFS play of the week is Adam Scott at $8,200. Over the last 4 months, Scott has 5 top 10 finishes in 6 starts, with the one finish outside of the top 10 being a T-20 at Pebble where the weather was wild. Scott has won at this course twice back in 2005 and 2020. Scott is above average in driving distance, approach, around the green and putting. He is below average in driving accuracy, but over the past 4 months in the 4 rounds that measured, he has gained on the field in this category. It's the right time and place to get Adam Scott into your lineups.


7k Range

Disclaimer - I really dislike this range and will be doing my best to avoid it at all costs.

Keegan Bradley (7,900) - Although I think he will be rather popular in this price range, I like what I'm seeing from Keegan. Electing to stay in California and skip last week's Waste Management Open after a T-11 at Pebble the week prior, Keegan is getting himself into form. He also had a T-2 at the Sony Open in Hawaii at the beginning of the year. Keegan is a very well rounded golfer and can pop with the irons and putter in an instant. His driving accuracy tends to suffer but in his 4 appearances in the 2024 season he's gained on the field in 2 of them. Good enough for me to take a chance if I have to in this range.


J.T. Poston ($7,800) - Poston was heat checked missing the cut last week at the Waste Management after a scorching hot start to the season. Before last week Poston had 2 top 10 finishes and 2 top 20 finishes to start the year. The putter has been scorching gaining roughly a stroke per round, outside of last week where he lost about 1.5 strokes per round. A phenomenal putter and approach player, I'm happy to throw last week out and turn to Poston this week at a discounted ownership.


6k Range

Emiliano Grillo ($6,900) - I was shocked to see Grillo in the 6k range this week. Grillo has made the cut in each of his 5 starts this season with T-43, T-7, T-20, T-14, and T-22 finishes. What I love about Grillo is that he can spike with his irons and with his putter gaining multiple strokes per round with each. Getting a T-20 finish from a 6k guy is about what you can ask for and I think Grillo is the guy to do that this week.


Tom Hoge ($6,700) - I was on him last week and I'm happy to back to him this week. Similar to why I like Grillo, Hoge has had a fine start to the 2024 season with 3 top 20 finishes. He also has been extremely good on approach and with the putter, gaining multiple strokes per round. Pair that all together with a T-14 here last year and that's enough for me to play Hoge this week.


Outright Betting Card

Sam Burns +2600 (0.269U) Adam Scott +3300 (0.212U)

Cameron Young +4000 (0.175U)


Join our discord or follow me on X @THEJakeFriedman to see the rest of my plays as the week progresses!


Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to be responsibly!

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