The Early Bird Gets the... Overrated Quarterback.
With the 2019 fantasy football season just a few months away, I wanted to touch base on the topic of not drafting quarterbacks too early.
Brace yourselves, because I am about to say something that may come as a surprise to some of you.
Are you ready?
Fantasy football is different from reality.
Now, after you get over the initial shock of that sentence, please let me explain. As avid football fans, we may tend to get wrapped up in the hype that revolves around certain players. It's hard to ignore all the news about max contract extensions, all time records being broken and six super bowl rings. This hype unfortunately may play a factor when it comes to our drafting strategies.
But this is where that crazy sentence comes into play. Fantasy football is different from reality.
The reality is yes, Aaron Rogers can launch a football and he is in State Farm commercials. Cam Newton likes to run the ball and pretend he is Superman. And forcing myself to be objective here, Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T.
In reality, these things are sexy. But Fantasy football is not reality. Fantasy football is all about numbers.
And lets face it, numbers are not sexy.
After you catch your breath from yet another shocking sentence, please let me explain further.
According to CBS Sports, approximately 19 NFL quarterbacks averaged between 20-30 points per game in the 2018 fantasy season. Out of those 19 quarterbacks, 16 of them averaged 20-25 points per game. What are these numbers telling us? There are a lot of quarterbacks to choose from who will get you almost the same amount of points per game. Even though it is tempting, do not waste your early round draft picks on quarterbacks. Although this may seem like a simple strategy, its one that a lot of people struggle with. Especially after that one person decides to pull the trigger and draft a "top" quarterback first. After Aaron Rogers is off the table, panic unfolds and before you know it, the whole league takes a QB all by the 4th round.
Let everyone else make that mistake. If there are 16 quarterbacks out there that can get you between 20-25 points per game, wait to draft one of them later during the 7th or 8th round so you can save your early picks for valuable running backs and wide receivers who are not a dime-a-dozen.
According to CBS Sports, in 2018, Aaron Rogers averaged 22.6 fantasy points per game and Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 24.9 points per game. Look at those numbers. Prime example of how fantasy football is different from reality. The crazy part is, Ryan Fitzpatrick was more than likely to still on the board after everyone's draft was over and done with.
Now am I saying to pass up every quarterback and draft Mr. Fitzmagic in the 16th round as your #1 guy? Absolutely not. Please don't do that. There could probably be an entire separate article written about that bad idea alone.
In the world of fantasy football, there is just not a big point difference between a quarterback ranked in the top 10 and one that is ranked in the top 20.
Having a good quarterback may help win you games, but its the running backs and wide receivers who will carry you to the playoffs. They are the foundation to a successful fantasy team and are absolutely worth being taken in the early rounds of your draft.