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  • Writer's pictureJake Friedman (@THEJakeFriedman)

Texas Children's Houston Open DFS & Outright Betting Guide

By: Jake Friedman



Introduction

The PGA Tour has concluded the Florida swing and now heads to Texas for the Houston Open. The defending champion, Tony Finau, will be in attendance along with a couple of other big name (Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Will Zalatoris, and Jason Day) and then a huge drop off. This isn't a great field but it's also not a terrible one.


This tournament is played at Memorial Park in Houston, Texas. The course is long and challenging which I've weighted into my model heavily this week.


As always, please refer to Nate's article for a very in-depth breakdown of the tournament's field, course, and more!


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DFS Guide

10k Range

Scottie Scheffler ($13,000) - I'm going to keep it concise here. Scottie is the best player in the field coming in with the best form and is the most likely golfer to win this tournament. His ownership will be through the roof but this is essentially a free square in your lineup and you can diversify with the 5 players you need to fill in. Having the best tee to green season since prime Tiger and coming in off of back to back wins, if he can continue gaining with the putter he will be lifting a trophy for the third time in a row.


Will Zalatoris ($10,100) - If Scottie loses the putter this week which I am really hoping for, my personal and model favorite to win this week is Zalatoris. One of the first players that comes to mind when I think of profiling well at a long and difficult golf course is Zalatoris. He consistently gains on the field in distance off the tee and is also an elite iron player. He is right about tour average in accuracy off the tee, although recently he has gained in accuracy in his last 4 starts. It comes down to the around the green play and putter for Will but if we throw out his last appearance which was a missed cut at The Players, he gained in 4 straight with the putter and in 3 of 4 around the green. Throwing out his missed cut at The Players, his 3 starts before were a T-13 at the Farmers Insurance Open, a T2 at The Genesis Invitational, and a T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Pairing his recent form with how he profiles at this course is exactly what I'm looking for this week.


9k Range

Jason Day ($9,500) - Depending on how the ownership shakes out on Day, I love him as a DFS play this week. His last 2 appearances are nothing to write home about (T35 and T36) but the 2 before that were great with a 9th at The Genesis and a T6 at the AT&T Pebble Beach. His course history is also pretty solid over the years with a T16 last year, T7 in 2021 and T8 in 2008. Day brings a pretty complete package with him being long and relatively accurate off the tee, above average on approach, an elite around the green game and above average putter. What I like best is that his flight path with the irons is high which will help hold the difficult greens. Even if they don't hold, his elite around the green play should keep him in contention all week.


Keith Mitchell ($9,200) - 54 hole leader last week but never stood a chance on Sunday, I'm hoping he left a bitter taste in peoples mouths and will discount his ownership. His recent form has been very solid with 4 top 20 finishes in his last 5 starts. Pair that with a T9 here last year and a T6 back in 2018 this could be where Mitchell breaks through on the 2024 season. Long and accurate off the tee paired with an elite approach game is the recipe for success this week and that's what Mitchell brings to the table week in and week out. Unfortunately, the short game and putter hold him back consistently. At a challenging course I'm going to take my chances on Keith finding some magic and heat with the putter.


8k Range

Doug Ghim ($8,200) - Last week's Ghim chalk is hopefully going to turn into this week's Ghim treasure. What a miserable tournament for Ghim last week where he was highly owned in DFS and on a lot of outright betting cards. I'm hoping this week we can get the opposite. Minus last week, Ghim had 5 consecutive finishes of T16 or better. He's only played this tournament once and missed the cut back in 2020. Not the longest off the tee, but Ghim is accurate off the tee and great on approach. He's right about average in around the green and with the putter, even though the putter has been hot in his past few starts minus last week. I'm taking my chances on everyone kicking themselves this week for not sticking with the Ghim Reaper.


Jake Knapp ($8,000) - I really don't love this play since I think the ownership will be too high but I do think Knapp is worth possibly considering so here goes nothing. Knapp has been pretty awesome this year to say the least. He won at the Mexico Open and has 2 other top 5 finishes this season to go with it. The last 2 weeks he's fallen out of form a little but I think his profile fits this course pretty well. He's long off the tee and brings solid approach, around the green, and putting with it. If he can keep himself in the fairway enough I don't see why he can't be in contention this week.


7k Range

Akshay Bhatia ($7,500) - It's time to plug your noses and take a chance on Bhatia this week. By hole 3 you will know if you're getting a missed cut or a T20. What I've seen from Bhatia this season has been rather impressive although the results haven't necessarily followed. He has 4 T20 finishes and 4 missed cuts this season so far. He's been consistent off the tee being both long and accurate which is critical this week. The approach play has been decent, but I think should be better given how elite of a ball striker he is. What is all comes down to is the around the green which has been slightly negative and the putter which has been either very hot or very cold. The putter is why I really love Bhatia this week. When he's in the green it's been around a stroke per round which can win you a tournament especially at a difficult course that won't require an insane number of birdies. I'm taking my chances here regardless of ownership.


Luke List ($7,500) - If you've been following me this year this should come as no surprise. This feels like a course List can thrive at and win. His season results have been hit or miss, mostly miss, but he does have a T2 at the Genesis which is a long difficult golf course. List does have some decent finishes at this even which includes a T11 in 2022, T24 in 2018, and T3 in 2017. Week in and week out, similar to Keith Mitchell, you know you are getting a bomber off the tee and an elite approach player. Similar to the profiles I've been targeting it will come down to his around the green game which has been pretty bad and with the putter which has been hit and miss. For what it's worth List has gained over a stroke per round with the putter twice this season and around the green once. If I can get the around the green to even and the putter in the green, I don't see why he can't win this week.


6k Range

Robert MacIntyre ($6,800) - After talking to Nate on the podcast, this is now my favorite DFS play of the week. Bobby Mac hasn't found his feet on the PGA Tour yet this season, but this is a course that profiles really well for him. He does have a T6 at the Mexico Open and he has made the cut in 4 of his last 5 starts. Bobby Mac is long off the tee and has recently been accurate which is a nice surprise. He's also right around tour average on approach and with the flat stick. He's above tour average around the green and if the wind starts to pick up he is a fantastic player in the wind due to his Scottish roots. Bobby Mac has also shown that he can be successful on difficult courses with the best golfers in the world (runner up to Rory at the Scottish Open last year, and 4 top 25 finishes in majors in his career). If he can continue to find the fairway and spike with either the irons or putter, he can contend this weekend.


Matt Wallace ($6,700) - What we saw from Wallace last week at the Valspar was very promising and enough for me to put him in my lineups this week. Prior to his T17 finish last week, it's been a pretty miserable season for Wallace either missing the cut or finishing close to last after making the cut. He is long off the tee, above average with the irons, and brings along a pretty solid short game around the green and with the putter. I think this week comes down to Wallace keeping himself in the fairway and giving himself chances to score.


5k Range

Parker Coody ($5,700) - Coody will definitely carry some ownership with him as he paired together 2 T25 finishes in a row this season at the Farmers and Mexico Open. He doesn't carry the most well rounded profile but he is long off the tee and very good with the irons. Unfortunately the short game and putter just aren't there for him, but if he can find the green which he has a few times this season in those categories, he can be primed up for another T25 finish.


Mac Meissner ($5,500) - Who? Exactly. I'm hoping he carries less than 2% ownership this week. He's made the cut in his last 3 appearances on the PGA Tour which for this price is about all you can ask for. He profiles solidly being long off the tee and slightly above average on approach. Even though he's below average in driving accuracy, around the green, and putting, he's been close to gaining across the board in his last 3 starts. The price and the form warrant a shot at a low ownership.


Outright Betting Card

Will Zalatoris +2000

Luke List +7500 Robert MacIntyre +12500


This is all I have for now and I plan on going under my weekly budget given Scottie Scheffler is headlining a weak field event and has a very good chance of winning his 3rd time in a row.


I will update the article as I add to my card and will post my final card on both my X and in our Discord!


Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!

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