Here is a review of your options to start at quarterback that you may be able to find available in your leagues. For this article, I am looking at options that are owned in less than 50-percent of either ESPN and Yahoo leagues, and what you may be able to expect from them. I’ll be looking for games with high implied point totals, ideally for a team that is supposed to win, but also looking at past trends to see if there are any match-up specific notes worth taking into consideration.
**Ownership and odds gathered 9/14/2020**
Results – Week 1: 4-3
Wins: Garoppolo, Trubisky, Bridgewater, Carr
Losses: Goff, Haskins, Tyrod
Week 1 Review
I’m happy with the process, as two of the three losses can be blamed on multiple touchdown games from runningbacks on those teams. Tyrod had some offensive line injuries that I didn’t expect to impact his performance as much as it may have. Unfortunately that leaves us barely over .500, but still a winning record; we’ll build on it for Week 2.
Best Bets (possibly available, but owned in more than 50% in either ESPN or Yahoo)
Jared Goff - (ESPN 42.1%, Yahoo 68%) at Philadelphia
-1 // 46 (Implied totals: W 23.5 – 22.5)
If Goff was available in Week 1, he’s probably still going to be available after throwing for 0 touchdowns against the Cowboys. He did flash his upside, throwing for 100 yards in the first quarter, but the Rams scored with Malcolm Brown barreling into the end-zone. Goff still has plenty of weapons, with Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee all showing well in Week 1 and escaping without injury. I would expect the Rams to look to attack the Eagles with their wide receivers in this match-up, which should get some scores for Goff rather than setting up the runningbacks at the goal line. I’d expect to see Goff go for another 250 yards passing and actually getting the two touchdowns in this match-up.
Philip Rivers (ESPN 18.8%, Yahoo 27%) vs. Minnesota
-3 // 48 (Implied totals: W 25.5 – 22.5)
I expect to see the quarterback facing Minnesota showing up any time he qualifies for this article. This secondary is not what folks are used to over the past few years, and it showed in Week 1, making Rodgers look like a former version of himself – can Rivers do the same? This is a great spot to get his mojo back. With Marlon Mack lost to injury, expect to see Jonathan Taylor in the power run game, with Nyheim Hines in for most third down work (although both backs will catch the ball.) T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell showed to be weapons in the pass game for the Colts, and I don’t think Minnesota has the defensive backs and linebackers to consistently cover all of the options that the Colts will throw at them. Expect 300 yards and two touchdowns, with upside from the runningbacks breaking dump off for an unexpected score.
Ryan Tannehill (ESPN 32.6%, Yahoo 52%) vs. Jacksonville
-9 // 42.5 (Implied totals: W 25.75 – 16.75)
If you ask Tannehill to drop back every down and move the ball through the air, he will struggle. Fortunately for him, he’s got Derrick Henry to hand the ball off to. The Titans can pick their spots for play action, and Tannehill becomes much more efficient. If he’s available, I want him, as I expect the Titans to try to get A.J. Brown going this week against a Jacksonville defense that has seen an exodus of talent over the past few seasons. Expect at least 225 yards and two scores, and you may even get a few more points on the ground.
Jimmy Garoppolo (ESPN 39.5%, Yahoo 52%) at New York Jets
-7 // 42.5 (Implied totals: W 24.75 – 17.75)
No Deebo Samuel? No Brandon Aiyuk? No problem. Even with George Kittle missing a few snaps due to a knee injury (he returned, but clearly wasn’t 100% in the second half,) the 49ers were able to put Garoppolo in position to succeed even with a makeshift WR corps. Perhaps we get to see Aiyuk this week, and add a weapon for Garoppolo, but wide receivers did see the upside that comes with the various pass catching options out of the backfield. Raheem Mostert has clearly improved in that area, Jerick McKinnon is being used as a receiving specialist and Kyle Juszczyk is a plus receiver that can flash on play action. Expect another solid game out of Jimmy G. If the Jets can make Josh Allen look great (yes, the one highlight misfire not withstanding,) Garoppolo will do just fine. Chalk him up for 200 yards and a pair of passing scores, although I would expect this to come primarily in the first half, with the 49ers salting away the win running with Mostert and Tevin Coleman in the second half.
Tyrod Taylor (ESPN 14.7%, Yahoo 8%) vs. Kansas City
+8.5 // 47.5 (Implied totals: L 19.75 – 27.25)
This is more a bet that this game will be a blow out. I expect Tyrod to have plenty of opportunities in the second half against the Chiefs' reserves after Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs light up the Chargers in the first half. Between Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Hunter Henry; the weapons are available, even if he has to take the yards in shorter throws rather than chunk plays. He should rack up 250 yards and two scores. Hopefully we start to see more of his previous rushing prowess, too – as he only had seven yards in Week 1.
Gardner Minshew (ESPN 14.9%, Yahoo 26%) at Tennessee
+9 // 42.5 (Implied totals: L 16.75 – 25.75)
Minshew showed how seamlessly he fits into Jay Gruden’s offense. He had an extremely quick release and low aDOT against the Colts who just made too many mistakes to win. It was an impressive showing for Minshew, and begins to increase his value from a dynasty perspective, as he is playing for his job this year (if he can get the Jaguars out of the top five picks, they won’t be in contention for one of the franchise quarterbacks of the 2021 draft class.) I’d expect to see more struggles against Tennessee, although there should be enough volume to put up serviceable numbers if you’re in a pinch. You can rely on him to put up 200 yards and two TDs and expect that he won’t put you in a deep hole at the quarterback spot.
Mitch Trubisky (ESPN 2.7%, Yahoo 3%) vs. New York Giants
If you take this suggestion, don’t watch the game. Through the first three quarters, Bears' fans wondered if he would even get to finish the game. In the end, he came through with 242 yards and three scores. I don’t expect him to repeat that line, but 200 yards and two touchdowns seems reasonable, as the way to attack the Giants is through the air. Like Minshew, Trubisky is playing for his job, but unfortunately for him, his replacement is already on the team chomping at the bit for his chance.
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