There are things that go together naturally. Peanut Butter and jelly. Salt and pepper. The WM Phoenix Open and Super Bowl weekend.
That’s right, the PGA Tour turns its attention to the fan favorite WM Phoenix Open this week at TPC Scottsdale.
This is an event like no other on the PGA Tour schedule as TPC Scottsdale has the ability to accommodate 350,000 fans.
In terms of U.S. sporting history, the 2018 playing on this event ranks third all-time in terms of attendance at 216,000 fans.
Due to this, the venue offers one of the most unique atmospheres in the sport. To sum it up, TPC Scottsdale offers an “arena-like” golfing atmosphere.
Golfers will have to deal with loud crowds throughout the week. Some golfers will feed off of the uproars and energy of the large crowds while others will falter due to the pressure.
If you have a buddy who isn’t the biggest golf fan, this is the week to introduce them and get them hooked!
In all, it’s time for one of the biggest spectacles in all of sports - the WM Phoenix Open.
The Field
Although this week is sandwiched between two Signature Events in last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and next week’s Genesis Invitational, the field this week is still quality.
That is a testament to this event. No matter the event’s designation, it’s going to draw a quality field.
World No. 1 and two time WM Phoenix Open champion Scottie Scheffler will be back this season, looking to claim his third title at TPC Scottsdale. Scheffler infamously injured his hand making ravioli on Christmas Eve that required surgery. He made his 2025 season debut last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Viktor Hovland was slated to tee it up this week, but he announced his withdrawal mid-way through the week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Now, the likes of Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Sahith Theegala, Justin Thomas and Cameron Young will help headline this week’s event alongside Scheffler.
Nick Taylor, the winner of the Sony Open in Hawaii this season, comes in as the defending champion. Taylor, who opened the week with a -11 60, defeated Charley Hoffman in a playoff a season ago to claim the title.
Joining Scheffler and Taylor as defending champions of this event and playing this week include Webb Simpson (2020,) Fowler (2019,) Gary Woodland (2018) and Matsuyama (2017 & 2016.)
The Course
TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course has been the host of this event since 1987 and plays as a Par 71 at roughly 7,200 yards in length.
Due to the elevation and the dryness of the Arizona desert causing firm conditions, TPC Scottsdale offers annually the longest average driving distance on Tour at 305 yards. This takes some of the advantage long bombers off the tee may have.
With the longer driving numbers comes a ball striking paradise. Approach shots beyond 200 yards are a rarity here and those within the 200-yard mark are the norm.
Water is in play early and often here however, making it important for golfers to find the fairways as well. The course does feature two-inch rough but in relation to what golfers have seen in the previous few events, it is not much of a deterrent at all.
There is surrounding desert cacti and other vegetation that can and will cause fits to those who miss the fairways however.
This event also features some of the easiest putting conditions that golfers will face on Tour. We’ve seen the likes of Scottie Scheffler win this event despite struggling with the putter across the week.
Of course, being an event of this nature, the finishing stretch features a series of risk-reward holes that can and has offered plenty of drama.
The tournament can be won and lost down the final stretch with the pressure of the arena atmosphere and thousands of fans staring down from the stadium-esque seating.
Golfers will have to deal with the unique crowd nature of this event. Some will feed off the atmosphere as some will crumble.
Course history is important here as there are just two courses on Tour that offer a bigger predictor of success than TPC Scottsdale; Augusta National and Waiʻalae Country Club.
Golfers with previous success at TPC Scottsdale are most likely to repeat more than all but two other courses as we listed above. We can contribute this to possibly the atmosphere the course offers opposed to the course itself.
The Weather
As of the time of writing this for Thursday through Saturday, there is at most a five-percent chance of precipitation. However, the chance increases to 35-percent for Sunday. Winds will also be nearly non-existent as Sunday currently calls for the highest wind speeds at just four miles-per-hour. The rest of the week calls for just two-to-three miles-per-hour winds. Temperatures will begin at 70-degrees on Thursday before dipping to 69-degrees on Friday and gradually increasing to 72-degrees come Sunday. In all, it looks to be a great four days of golf.
Key Stats
Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT)
Scrambling
Par 4 Average Scoring
Birdie or Better Percentage
Bogey Avoidance
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: PUTT)
Proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards.
DFS Suggestions
$10,000+
To lead things off, it has to be Scottie Scheffler ($12,000.) Boring, I know, but as previously mentioned, course history is massive here at TPC Scottsdale. Over the last four years, in which Scheffler has played all four, he placed third here a season ago, won this event in back-to-back years between 2022 and 2023 and placed seventh in 2021. I know $12,000 is a big number but honestly, that feels like a discount for Scheffler this week. This too will scare people off of Scheffler and help keep his ownership number to a manageable level. Even if the ownership number is through the roof, I simply cannot go into this week without him in my lineups. In his first event of the season a week ago at Pebble Beach, Scheffler placed ninth. He is currently first on Tour in both SG: APP and bogey avoidance, fourth in par four average scoring, 11th in scrambling, 15th in ball striking, 28th in birdie or better percentage, 41st in SG: PUTT, 73rd in SG: OTT and 77th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards.
$9,000-$9,900
If you know me, you know I’m the leader of the Tom Kim ($9,600) fan club and following an impressive outing at Pebble Beach, he’s back on the card! Kim is currently ninth on Tour in par four average scoring, 25th in ball striking, 30th in SG: APP, 53rd in scrambling, 57th in birdie or better percentage, 58th in bogey avoidance, 93rd in SG: PUTT, 106th in SG: OTT and 112th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards. As previously mentioned, Kim is fresh off his best finish of the season by far, placing seventh last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He at one point was tied for the lead with eventual winner Rory McIlroy before a few errant tee shots took him out of the running. He’s also played this event twice previously, placing 17th last year and 50th in 2023. If there is a golfer in this field that will feed into the massive crowds, it’s Kim. He’s also on my betting card at +4000. Also consider Robert MacIntyre ($9,000.) MacIntyre is currently seventh on Tour in ball striking, tenth in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, 13th in birdie or better percentage, 32nd in SG: OTT, 41st in SG: APP, 81st in par four average scoring, 85th in bogey avoidance, 170th in scrambling and 172nd in SG: PUTT. MacIntyre has played three events so far this season, placing 15th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions, 53rd at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 40th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He played this event a season ago, where he missed the cut.
$8,000-$8,900
First up in this price range is the defending champion of this event and the winner of this season’s Sony Open in Hawaii, Nick Taylor ($8,400.) Taylor also placed second here in 2023. Outside of winning the Sony Open in Hawaii this season, he also placed 48th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions, 12th at The American Express and 33rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He is currently eighth on Tour in SG: APP, 20th in birdie or better percentage, 29th in bogey avoidance, 32nd in par four average scoring, 39th in ball striking, 67th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, 74th in SG: PUTT, 94th in scrambling and 112th in SG: OTT. Also consider Si Woo Kim ($8,000.) The definition of consistency. He’s made the cut here each of the last four seasons, placing 12th a season ago, 23rd in 2023, 26th in 2022 and 50th in 2021. He also placed 12th at last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 32nd at The Sentry Tournament of Champions and 51st at The American Express. Kim is currently 22nd on Tour in SG: OTT, 23rd in birdie or better percentage, 67th in par four average scoring, 71st in ball striking, 74th in bogey avoidance, 86th in scrambling, 97th in SG: PUTT, 101st in SG: APP and 110th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards.
$7,000-$7,900
Continuing the theme of course history, we have Charley Hoffman ($7,200.) Hoffman of course fell to Taylor in a playoff a season ago at this event. He also placed 14th in 2023, 67th in 2022 and 40th in 2020. In his three starts so far this season, Hoffman has placed 59th at the Sony Open in Hawaii, fifth at The American Express and 25th at the Farmers Insurance Open. He is currently fourth on Tour in SG: OTT, eighth in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, tenth in scrambling, 13th in ball striking, 34th in SG: APP, 44th in bogey avoidance, 45th in par four average scoring, 102nd in birdie or better percentage and 183rd in SG: PUTT. It’s the putter that holds him back but at an event where putting is some of the easiest on Tour, he’s proven that he can shine. Also consider Lucas Glover ($7,400.) Glover made a late run last week in route to a third place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He also placed 21st at the Sony Open in Hawaii. The last time he played this event was 2023 where he placed 39th. He also placed 37th in 2022 and 58th in 2021. Glover is currently tenth on Tour in bogey avoidance, 14th in scrambling, 18th in SG: APP, 25th in ball striking, 27th in SG: PUTT, 55th in birdie or better percentage, 59th in SG: OTT, 88th in par four average scoring and 106th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards. If the putter gets going, just as it did a week ago, Glover can go the distance.
$6,900-
First up in this final price range we have Alex Smalley ($6,900.) Smalley is currently 20th on Tour in SG: APP, 22nd in par four average scoring, 27th in ball striking, 39th in SG: OTT, 65th in bogey avoidance, 66th in both scrambling and birdie or better percentage, 76th in SG: PUTT and 114th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards. On the season, Smalley placed 16th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 11th at The American Express. Smalley hasn’t played this event since 2020 where he missed the cut. Also consider Bud Cauley ($6,900.) Cauley is currently second on Tour in ball striking, third in scrambling, eighth in SG: OTT, 13th in bogey avoidance, 39th in par four average scoring, 109th in both SG: PUTT and proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, 111th in SG: APP and 113th in birdie or better percentage. Cauley placed 65th here a season ago and 25th back in 2020. We’ve seen him once so far this season, where he placed 30th at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
Betting Card
Sam Burns (+2800)
Tom Kim (+4000)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+6600)
Sam Stevens (+8000)
Thomas Detry (+9000)
Sam Burns (+2800)
Burns has been fantastic at TPC Scottsdale over the last two seasons. He placed third here a season ago and sixth in 2023. He also placed 22nd in 2021. In three events so far this season, he placed eighth at The Sentry Tournament of Champions, 29th at The American Express and 22nd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Burns is currently fourth on Tour in bogey avoidance, ninth in par four average scoring, 11th in birdie or better percentage, 21st in SG: PUTT, 32nd in ball striking, 47th in scrambling, 56th in SG: OTT, 83rd in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards and 140th in SG: APP.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+6600)
Due to a down season last year, many have forgotten how good Fitzpatrick can be. His two PGA Tour victories include the 2022 U.S. Open and 2023 RBC Heritage. He’s also been pretty good here at TPC Scottsdale. He placed 15th here a season ago, 29th in 2023 and tenth in 2022. He’s played just two events so far this season, finishing 24th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions and 48th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Fitzpatrick is currently tenth on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 22nd in par four average scoring, 38th in both ball striking and SG: OTT, 54th in bogey avoidance, 68th in SG: PUTT, 111th in scrambling, 139th in SG: APP and 158th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards. His iron play is down, but we know him as a world class ball striker. The irons will turn around. This could be the week when it finally clicks at a place he’s had proven success.
Sam Stevens (+8000)
One of the bright spots of this early 2025 PGA Tour season, Stevens has been red hot as of late. He placed 17th last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, second at the Farmers Insurance Open, 51st at The American Express and 59th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He also placed 28th here a season ago in his debut. Stevens is currently eighth on Tour in scrambling, 20th in bogey avoidance, 28th in SG: APP, 32nd in par four average scoring, 43rd in ball striking, 47th in SG: OTT, 68th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, 90th in birdie or better percentage and 115th in SG: PUTT.
Thomas Detry (+9000)
Detry has quietly been rather good to start his 2025 PGA Tour season. He placed fifth at The Sentry Tournament of Champions, 53rd at the Sony Open in Hawaii, 15th at the Farmers Insurance Open and 48th at last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Like Stevens, he placed 28th here in his debut a season ago. Detry is currently 21st on Tour in SG: OTT, 32nd in par four average scoring, 38th in SG: PUTT, 42nd in scrambling, 46th in bogey avoidance, 75th in proximity to the hole from 150-200 yards, 76th in birdie or better percentage, 82nd in ball striking and 136th in SG: APP.
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