Out of the Rough: Valspar Championship (2025)

The PGA Tour looks to put a cap on its near month-long stay in Florida with this week’s Valspar Championship. 

Before heading to Texas for two weeks prior to the Masters, the Tour ends its run in Florida with a trip to Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida.

This event once took place the week prior to that now discontinued WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Since the discountion of that, the Valspar Championship has seen much improved fields as previously, being the week after THE PLAYERS Championship, most of the Tour’s big names would take the week off.

The location of the course also helps with the increased interest and stronger field as Palm Harbor is just a hop-skip-and-a-jump from Ponte Vedra Beach.

The Field

We enter a three-week-stretch between THE PLAYERS Championship and the Masters Tournament where we won’t see much of the Tour’s big names.

However, this week, we’ll likely see the best field of the three tournaments.

World No. 3 Xander Schauffele looks to continue to shake the rust off as he’s played just two tournaments since his return to action from a rib injury that kept him out of nearly three months.

He’ll be joined by the likes of World No. 9 Tommy Fleetwood and World No. 10 Justin Thomas as odds-on-favorites to win.

Sepp Straka (11th,) Shane Lowry (15th,) Viktor Hovland (19th,) Billy Horschel (20th) and Sahith Theegala (22nd) round out he list of golfers within the top 25 of the OWGR that will be teeing it up this week. 

In all, eight golfers within the top 25 of the OWGR and 18 within the top 50 will be playing this week.

Peter Malnati comes in as the defending champion as the veteran used last year’s installment for his second PGA Tour victory, his first since 2015. Malnati held off Cameron Young by two strokes to claim the title a season ago. He’ll be back this week in an attempt to make it back-to-back Valspar Championship titles.

Other former winners of this event teeing it up this week include Taylor Moore (2023,) Sam Burns (2021 & 2022,) Adam Hadwin (2017,) Jordan Spieth (2015,) Luke Donald (2012) and Gary Woodland (2011.) 

The Course

Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course is yet another demanding course from tee-to-green that will test the field. It requires patience and an all-around-game to compete here.

The course is often deemed a hidden gem on the Florida swing that is oftentimes overshadowed by Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass.

It plays as a par 71 at 7,340 yards.

It’ll require a total ball-striking and short game to compete this week and the greens are a pure Bermuda.

The course features a multitude of tight doglegs that will force players to lay-up off the tee. The fairways too are tree lined.

Players are forced to work the ball in both directions at Copperhead. It’s a shot-maker’s course with significant elevation changes. This allows for both bombers and short plotters off the tee to have success alike.

In all, it’s one of the most challenging courses on Tour to gain strokes off-the-tee. This is due to the narrow fairways that too are hard to hold. Those who choose to layup with less than a driver too will find it difficult to hit these fairways.

Annually, the course yields a below average ranking in both driving accuracy and driving distance.

Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course too features some of the most challenging par-threes on the entire Tour.

Long iron and Bermuda putting specialists thrive here.

We’ve seen back-to-back winners twice in the past seven years at this event in Burns and Casey. This goes to show that course history is proven repeatable.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, Thursday calls for the highest chance of precipitation at 25-percent. Friday is calling for a zero-percent chance with Saturday calling for a 15-percent chance and Sunday a ten-percent chance. Winds will also be at the highest on Thursday, set to peak at 19 miles-per-hour. At this point, there will be a distinct advantage to those who tee it up in the morning wave on Thursday. Winds will open Thursday at just seven miles-per-hour at the time of first tee-time but will reach 17 miles-per-hour by 1 p.m. Winds as a whole will slowly decrease as the week goes on. Friday calls for 11 miles-per-hour winds, Saturday nine miles-per-hour winds and Sunday just six miles-per-hour winds. Temperatures will begin at 76-degrees on Thursday before dipping to 70 degrees on Friday. Temperatures will rise back to 74-degrees come Saturday and peak at 79-degrees on Sunday. In all, pay close attention to the weather on Thursday as it simply could determine now the leaderboard looks come Sunday.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Scrambling

• Par Five Average Scoring

• Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)

• Driving Accuracy

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG: TTG)

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

• Proximity to the Hole from 175-plus Yards

• Par Three Average Scoring

• Bogey Avoidance

• Ball Striking

DFS Suggestions

$10,000+

With just four options in this top price range, I’m going to lean the guy I’ve been playing a lot as of late, but for good reason. That just so happens to be Sepp Straka ($10,000.) Not only is he playing better than anyone else in this price range, he’s also the cheapest this week. Straka is currently ninth on Tour in both SG: APP and par five average scoring, 11th in all three of driving accuracy, SG: TTG and bogey avoidance, 16th in ball striking, 26th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 30th in par three average scoring, 66th in scrambling, 91st in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 99th in SG: ATG. Straka is fresh off a T14th at last week’s THE PLAYERS Championship and prior to that, placed fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 11th at the Cognizant Classic across the ‘Florida Swing.’ He’s also placed 15th at the WM Phoenix Open, seventh at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 30th at the Sony Open in Hawaii, 15th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions and of course, won The American Express this season. He’s played this event just twice over the past five installments, missing the cut last year and placing 46th in 2019. Straka is also on my betting card at +2500.

$9,000-$9,900

Speaking of guys I’ve been on a lot this season, we’re leading this price range off with Alex Smalley ($9,000.) Smalley is fresh off a T14th at last week’s THE PLAYERS Championship. He’s also placed 18th at the Cognizant Classic, tenth at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld and 21st at the WM Phoenix Open coming into this week. He also placed 11th at The American Express and 16th at the Sony Open in Hawaii on the season. He’s played this event each of the last three seasons, missing the cut in 2024 and 2022 but placing 27th in 2023. Smalley is currently sixth on Tour in SG: TTG, ninth in both SG: ATG and bogey avoidance, tenth in ball striking, 14th in both scrambling and par five average scoring, 26th in driving accuracy, 33rd in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 73rd in SG: APP, 93th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 98th in par three average scoring. Smalley is also on my betting card at +4500. Also consider Shane Lowry ($9,400.) Lowry placed T20th at last week’s THE PLAYERS Championship and prior to that placed seventh at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 11th at the Cognizant Classic during the ‘Florida Swing.” He also placed 39th at The Genesis Invitational and second at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Lowry has played this event just once over the last five installments, placing 12th in 2022. Lowry is currently 14th on Tour in SG: TTG, 15th in SG: APP, 21st in par three average scoring, 24th in scrambling, 27th in SG: ATG, 50th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 56th in bogey avoidance, 72nd in driving accuracy, 140th in par five average scoring, 154th in ball striking and 167th in SG: PUTT Bermuda.

$8,000-$8,900

First up in this price range we have the 2023 Valspar Championship winner, Taylor Moore ($8,600.) Outside of winning here in 2023, Moore also placed 12th a season ago. He also played this event in 2022 where he missed the cut. Moore is currently seventh on Tour in par five average scoring, 16th in SG: ATG, 22nd in ball striking, 31st in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 38th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 39th in SG: TTG, 54th in bogey avoidance, 61st in scrambling, 69th in driving accuracy, 91st in par three average scoring and 139th in SG: APP. Moore placed T33rd at last week’s THE PLAYERS Championship and prior to that, has very quietly put together an impressive start to his 2025 campaign. He also placed 42nd at the Cognizant Classic, 34th at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, ninth at the WM Phoenix Open, 22nd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 56th at the Farmers Insurance Open and seventh at The American Express. Also consider J.T. Poston ($8,700.) Poston last played here in 2023 where he placed tenth. He also played in each of the installments between 2019 and 2022 where he missed the cut twice and placed 54th in 2021. Poston is currently 20th on Tour in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 28th in driving accuracy, 36th in SG: TTG, 37th in par five average scoring, 39th in ball striking, 47th in SG: ATG, 48th in SG: APP, 118th in bogey avoidance, 128th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 133rd in par three average scoring and 136th in scrambling. Poston placed T33rd at last week’s THE PLAYERS Championship. He’s also placed 50th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 39th at The Genesis Invitational, 16th at the WM Phoenix Open, 53rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 12th at The American Express on the season. Poston is also on my betting card at +5000.

$7,000-$7,900

Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,300) is someone I’m super high on this week. He is currently second on Tour in SG: APP, third in both par five average scoring and bogey avoidance, eighth in ball striking, 15th in par three average scoring, 16th in SG: TTG, 59th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 71st in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 100th in SG: ATG, 101st in scrambling and 120th in driving accuracy. The accuracy is a bit of a concern but there are multiple ways to attack this golf course and have success. Hogjaard missed the cut last week at THE PLAYERS Championship but prior to that placed 18th at the Cognizant Classic, eighth at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld and 36th at the WM Phoenix Open on the season. He’ll be making his tournament debut this week. Hojgaard is also on my betting card at +10000. Also consider Doug Ghim ($7,300.) Ghim is currently fifth on Tour in SG: APP, ninth in SG: TTG, 26th in ball striking, 37th in driving accuracy, 47th in par three average scoring, 55th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 66th in bogey avoidance, 81st in SG: ATG, 83rd in par five average scoring, 96th in scrambling and 159th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Putting is always the concern with Ghim and that’s why I’m playing him in DFS and not on the betting card. Ghim missed the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship but prior to that placed 11th at the Cognizant Classic. He’s also placed 49th at the WM Phoenix Open and 21st at The American Express on the season. Ghim made the cut in both of the last two seasons here, highlighted by a 27th place finish in 2023.

$6,900-

Leading off this final price range we have Andrew Putnam ($6,900.) Putnam missed the cut at least week’s THE PLAYERS Championship but prior to that, made the cut in four consecutive events. He placed 11th at the Cognizant Classic, 49th at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, 25th at the WM Phoenix Open and 32nd at the Farmers Insurance Open. He also placed 30th at the Sony Open in Hawaii on the season. His course history here is not ideal either, missing the cut in 2024, 2022 and 2021. Putnam is currently sixth on Tour in bogey avoidance, 15th in driving accuracy, 16th in SG: APP, 37th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 45th in SG: ATG, 51st in ball striking, 57th in par three average scoring, 76th in scrambling, 82nd in SG: TTG, 91st in par five average scoring and 103rd in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards. Not a bad resume for someone in this price range. Putnam is also on my betting card at +17000. Also consider Henrik Norlander ($6,500.) Norlander missed the cut last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, although right at the cut line. He also placed 40th at the Puerto Rico Open and 13th at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, both at courses that do not fit his game at all. Norlander played this event three times between 2021 and 2023, making the cut in two of them (2023 and 2021.) Norlander is currently eighth on Tour in SG: APP, 17th in par three average scoring, 18th in scrambling, 26th in bogey avoidance, 27th in ball striking, 40th in driving accuracy, 43rd in SG: TTG, 94th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 106th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 131st in SG: ATG and 165th in par five average scoring. 

Betting Card

• Sepp Straka (+2500)

• Alex Smalley (+4500)

• J.T. Poston (+5000)

• Jacob Bridgeman (+8000)

• Nicolai Hojgaard (+10000)

• Andrew Putnam (+17000)

Jacob Bridgeman (+8000)

Bridgeman is currently sixth on Tour in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 22nd in scrambling, 30th in SG: ATG, 42nd in par five average scoring, 47th in par three average scoring, 51st in bogey avoidance, 52nd in SG: TTG, 86th in SG: APP, 98th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 102nd in driving accuracy and 163rd in ball striking. Bridgeman placed T50th at THE PLAYERS Championship last week. He also placed 15th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, second at the Cognizant Classic and 34th at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld across his last four tournaments coming into this week. He also placed 21st at The American Express this season. He’s played this event once prior, missing the cut a season ago.