Out of the Rough: Valero Texas Open (2025)

With just one week until The Masters, the PGA Tour takes to the Valero Texas Open for its final tune-up.

This week serves as the final chance for anyone not yet qualified for The Masters to make a statement and find themselves in one of the most coveted fields in the sport.

Played annually at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, the event not only offers the chance for a victor to qualify for The Masters, but as the final tuneup to for the first Major of the season.

Due to this, we’ll see a rather star-studded lineup despite taking place a week prior to the biggest week in golf.

Valero Energy Corporation took over naming rights in 2002 and has been the title sponsor since.

This tournament as a whole has been ongoing for 102 years, dating back to 1922. 

The Field

As previously mentioned, with The Masters taking place next week, many of the Tour’s best will be in attendance this week to use the Valero Texas Open and the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio as a final tune-up.

Leading the charge is The Genesis Invitational Champion and World No. 5, Ludvig Aberg who opens as the odds-on-favorite to win this week.

He’ll be joined by Hideki Matsuyama (World No. 6,) Tommy Fleetwood (No. 11,) Keegan Bradley (No. 14,) Patrick Cantlay (No. 15,) Maverick McNealy (No. 16,) Corey Conners (No. 21) and Askhay Bhatia (No. 23) as those within the top 25 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) teeing it up this week.

In all 16 players within the top 50 of the OWGR and 28 within the top 75 will be in this week’s field.

Bhatia comes in as the defending champion as he took down Denny McCarthy in a playoff a season ago.

Conners is a two time winner of this event, doing so in 2023 and 2019. He’ll look to be the first golfer since Justin Leonard in 2007 to win three Valero Texas Open titles.

Other former winners of the Valero Texas Open playing this week include Jordan Spieth (2021,) Charley Hoffman (2016,) Jimmy Walker (2015,) Martin Laird (2013) and Zach Johnson (2008 & 2009.)

The Course

The Valero Texas Open is hosted by The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio and has been for the past 13 years. It was previously held at the La Cantera Golf Club up until 2010.

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio plays at 7,428 yards and a standard par 72. It features the standard breakdown of ten par-fours, four par-fives and four par-threes.

The course is one designed by Greg Norman who also brought in Sergio Garcia as a consulting role. Garcia’s involvement was presumably to try and attract the game’s best in lieu of skipping in favor of The Masters. Ironically, Garcia only played the event once before leaving for the LIV Tour. 

The course is a “second shot” course as it rewards top-tier iron players in trending tee-to-green form. In all, it is essentially a run-of-the-mill PGA Tour track that lacks unique identity or defining characteristics.

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio ranks in the top ten of longest courses on Tour each year and features some of the least penal rough both around the fairways and greens. 

However, finding the fairway is important as the fairways are heavily tree lined. The bunkers, both around the green and fairway, do offer a bit of deterrence as they are deep and oddly shaped.

Greg Norman was most notably one of the best drivers in the history of professional golf and therefore his course designs reflect that. This week’s course will be driver-heavy but rather difficult off-the-tee to reflect that; as are his other designs. Of all courses with at least five tournaments since 2015, TPC San Antonio ranks 12th-toughest on Tour off-the-tee.

Finding the greens-in-regulation too will be a challenge as The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio too offers the seventh-lowest Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%) on Tour. 

Designed as a “second shot” course, the approach shots are tricky. Of all courses with at least five events since 2015, The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio ranks as the seventh-toughest for approach shots.

The Bermuda greens don’t offer much of a challenge within 15-feet as TPC San Antonio provides about average difficulty in comparison to the rest of the Tour. However, it is one of the most difficult courses in putts beyond 15-feet. Of courses that have seen at least five events since 2015, this course ranks sixth-toughest in putts over 15 feet. Strong Bermuda putters will see an advantage here.

The weather, most notably winds, play the biggest defense to TPC San Antonio along with the firm and fast conditions. As previously mentioned about the difficulty of both driving and approach shots, the wind has a lot to do with that.

Weather has been a determining factor for scoring at The Oaks Course over the years. In 2019 we saw soft and receptive conditions from heavy rainfall as other years, such as last year, saw heavy winds.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, there is at most a 25-percent chance of precipitation this week. Friday and Saturday call for a 25-percent chance, Thursday a 20-percent chance and Sunday a ten-percent chance. Temperatures will begin Thursday at 90-degrees before peaking at 91-degrees on Friday. Temperatures will then take a drastic drop to 77-degrees for Saturday and then 67-degrees come Sunday. Winds will be at the lowest on Thursday at eight miles-per-hour before peaking at 13 miles-per-hour on Friday. Winds will decrease to ten miles-per-hour on Saturday and bounce back to 11 miles-per-hour come Sunday. In all, it appears to be a clear four days of golf.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)

• Birdie or Better Percentage

• Bogey Avoidance

• Par Five Average Scoring

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

• Sand Saves Percentage

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT)

• Good Drives Gained

DFS Suggestions

$10,000+

Per my stats-based model, my overall favorite this week is Patrick Cantlay ($10,200.) Cantlay is currently first on Tour in par-five average scoring, fourth in birdie or better percentage, tenth in good drives percentage, 33rd in SG: APP, 45th in SG: ATG, 47th in SG: OTT, 60th in bogey avoidance, 72nd in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 146th in sand saves percentage. Of golfers who have played at least five events so far this season, Cantlay has the fifth best average finishing position. Of golfers who have played six events, Cantlay is only second to Scottie Scheffler. Cantlay most recently placed 12th at THE PLAYERS Championship. He also placed fifth at The Genesis Invitational and fifth at The American Express on the season. He hasn’t played this event over the past five seasons. He is also on my betting card at +1800.

$9,000-$9,900

First up in this price range is Keegan Bradley ($9,500.) Of golfers who have played at least seven events so far this season, Bradley has the fourth average finishing placement to just Russell Henley, Justin Thomas and Sepp Straka. He most recently placed 20th at THE PLAYERS Championship. He’s also placed fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 15th at the Farmers Insurance Open and sixth at the Sony Open in Hawaii to highlight his season. He’s played this event twice of the past five seasons, placing eighth in 2022 and 23rd in 2021. Bradley is currently 24th on Tour in SG: APP, 25th in SG: OTT, 38th in par-five average scoring, 45th in good drives percentage, 48th in bogey avoidance, 50th in birdie or better percentage, 100th in sand saves percentage, 103rd in SG: ATG and 110th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Also consider Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900.) Matsuyama missed the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship in his latest outing but prior to that had five top-25 finishes. He placed 22nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 13th at The Genesis Invitational, 25th at the WM Phoenix Open, 16th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and won The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He’s played this event three times over the past five seasons, placing seventh a season ago, 15th in 2023 and 30th in 2021. He is currently second on Tour in both par-five average scoring and sand saves percentage, third in SG: ATG, 25th in bogey avoidance, 26th in birdie or better percentage, 31st in SG: APP, 104th in SG: OTT, 123rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 172nd in good drives percentage. 

$8,000-$8,900

Bud Cauley ($8,300) is my first play in this price range. He’s been on a tear as of late. He placed fourth in his last outing at the Valspar Championship and sixth at THE PLAYERS Championship across his last two events. Prior to that he also placed 56th at the Cognizant Classic, 21st at the WM Phoenix Open and 30th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s played this event twice over the last five seasons, placing 39th last year and missing the cut in 2019. He is currently fourth on Tour in sand saves percentage, 20th in SG: APP, 27th in birdie or better percentage, 34th in SG: OTT, 35th in SG: ATG, 39th in bogey avoidance, 61st in par five average scoring, 78th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 93rd in good drives percentage. Also consider Keith Mitchell ($8,900.) Mitchell has missed just one cut (THE PLAYERS Championship) in eight events he’s played this season. He placed 18th last week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and 54th at the Valspar Championship over his last two outings. He also placed 25th at the WM Phoenix Open, 33rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 21st at The American Express and 30th at the Sony Open in Hawaii to highlight his season. He’s played this event twice over the last five seasons, placing 14th last year and 17th in 2021. Mitchell is currently fifth on Tour in both par-five average scoring and SG: OTT, ninth in sand saves percentage, 25th in bogey avoidance, 42nd in birdie or better percentage, 55th in good drives percentage, 70th in SG: APP, 108th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 129th in SG: ATG. 

$7,000-$7,900

As always, there’s a ton of value in this price range this week. I’ll lead things off with Lee Hodges ($7,500.) Hodges is currently second on Tour in par-five average scoring, 11th in bogey avoidance, 32nd in good drives percentage, 33rd in birdie or better percentage, 51st in SG: APP, 70th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 78th in SG: ATG, 94th in SG: OTT and 109th in sand saves percentage. He’s fresh off an 11th place finish last week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Prior to that he placed 57th at the WM Phoenix Open, 33rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, ninth at the Farmers Insurance Open, 34th at The American Express and tenth at the Sony Open in Hawaii. In all, he has three top-11 finishes and two top-tens to start his 2025 campaign. He missed the cut here in both 2024 and 2022 but did place sixth in 2023. He’s also on my betting card at +8000. Also consider Ben Griffin ($7,900.) Griffin is currently 22nd on Tour in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 44th in good drives percentage, 47th in SG: ATG, 48th in par-five average scoring, 56th in bogey avoidance, 61st in SG: APP, 65th in sand saves percentage, 71st in birdie or better percentage and 95th in SG: OTT. Griffin rebounded from back-to-back missed cuts at THE PLAYERS Championship and the Valspar Championship with an 18th last week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. On the season he also placed fourth at both the Cognizant Classic and Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. He also places seventh at The American Express. He placed 39th here a season ago and missed the cut in 2023. Griffin is also on my betting card at +6500.

$6,900-

One of my favorite value plays this week is Steven Fisk ($6,600.) He missed the cut last week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open but prior to that placed 28th at the Valspar Championship and fourth at the Puerto Rico Open. He also placed 17th at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld this season. He’ll be making his debut here this week. Fisk is currently sixth on Tour in good drives percentage, tenth in par-five average scoring, 16th in SG: OTT, 27th in SG: ATG, 30th in bogey avoidance, 85th in SG: APP, 111th in sand saves percentage, 149th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 151st in birdie or better percentage. He is also on my betting card this week at +30000. Also consider Brice Garnett ($6,500.) Garnett comes into this week on the back of back-to-back missed cuts at the Valspar Championship and THE PLAYERS Championship. However, prior to that, he didn’t miss the cut in five consecutive events to start the season. He placed 40th at the Puerto Rico Open, 11th at the Cognizant Classic, 67th at the WM Phoenix Open, 34th at The American Express, 30th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 48th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He last played here in 2023 where he placed 60th. He missed the cut in both 2022 and 2021. Garnett is currently first on Tour in good drives percentage, second in bogey avoidance, 19th in sand saves percentage, 42nd in SG: ATG, 89th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 97th in par-five average scoring, 109th in both birdie or better percentage and SG: OTT and 127th in SG: APP. 

Betting Card

• Patrick Cantlay (+1800)

• Tom Kim (+4500)

• Ben Griffin (+6500)

• Lee Hodges (+8000)

• Victor Perez (+11000)

• Steven Fisk (+30000)

Tom Kim (+4500)

On top of being my favorite golfer, Tom Kim at +4500 is insane value this week. He is currently seventh on Tour in SG: APP, 37th in good drives percentage, 86th in birdie or better percentage, 112th in SG: OTT, 134th in sand saves percentage, 136th in SG: ATG, 145th in par-five average scoring, 159th in bogey avoidance and 160th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. His season has been highlighted by a seventh place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He did miss the cut here last year. This is more so a value play (and if you know me, a FOMO play.) The number is simply too good for a player of Kim’s talent. 

Victor Perez (+11000)

Perez has been playing some great golf as of late, placing in the top-22 in three consecutive events coming into this week. He placed 18th last week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, 22nd at the Valspar Championship and 18th at the Cognizant Classic. He also placed 45th here a season ago. Perez is currently third on Tour in good drives percentage, 16th in bogey avoidance, 24th in par-five average scoring, 43rd in SG: OTT, 55th in SG: APP, 60th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 114th in sand saves percentage, 117th in birdie or better percentage and 119th in SG: ATG.