The conclusion of the 2023-2024 PGA TOUR season is here with one final stop at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia for this week’s TOUR Championship.
Across the last eight months, golfers on the PGA Tour acquired cumulative FedEx points each week with eyes on making the 70-man field for the FedEx Cup Playoffs beginning two weeks ago at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
From there, the top 50-golfers within the FedEx Cup Standings advanced to last week’s BMW Championship and now, just the top 30-golfers of the season-long FedEx Cup points standings remain for this week’s end-of-the-season TOUR Championship.
Now, when it’s all said-and-done on Sunday, one man will stand on the 18th green at East Lake hoisting the FedEx Cup trophy and walking away with a lofty $25 Million check.
There will also be a staggered stroke handicap appointed this week, rewarding those who rank highest in the FedEx Cup Standings.
Scoring Format
As previously mentioned, this event does not play as your standard stroke-play event.
Golfer’s respective placement in the FedEx Cup Standings heading into this week have been granted a starting stroke handicap to reward their season long success
This staggered start essentially eliminats 75-percent of the field from serious contention in winning the coveted TOUR Championship.
The starting scores are as followed:
1. Scottie Scheffler (-10)
2. Xander Schauffele (-8)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (-7)
4. Keegan Bradley (-6)
5. Ludvig Aberg (-5)
6-10. Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns & Patrick Cantlay (-4)
11-15. Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott & Tony Finau (-3)
16-20. Byeong Hun An, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Akshay Bhatia & Robert MacIntyre (-2)
21-25. Billy Horschel, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Matthieu Pavon & Taylor Pendrith (-1)
26-30. Chris Kirk, Tom Hoge, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Justin Thomas (E)
This scoring format has been in place since 2019 and the furthest a winner has started back was Cantlay in 2021 at -4. McIlroy won in 2019 starting at -5. Viktor Hovland won a season ago starting at -8. The other two winners in this format (McIlroy in 2022 and Dustin Johnson in 2020) both started at -10.
If that trend is to continue, just the top ten in this week’s field will have a chance at victory.
The Field
For a list of this week’s full field, look above to the staggered scoring breakdown.
Beyond that, there isn’t much to break down as this field is limited to just the 30-best season long golfers on this year’s PGA TOUR.
The Course
East Lake Golf Club was established in 1904 and features a rich history. It has served as the permanent final stop of the PGA TOUR season since the TOUR Championship’s inception 2004.
Along with being the permanent home to this end-of-the-season event, East Lake has hosted the Ryder Cup in 1963 and the 2001 U.S. Amateur. East Lake also hosts the East Lake Cup, a collegiate match play series that has seen notable individual medalist honors such as Scheffler and Hovland
East Lake is Donald Ross designed and plays as a par-70 at 7,319 yards. This puts the course slightly above the TOUR average in distance.
The track features six par-fours over 450-yards and three par-threes over 200-yards. These holes offer a slight advantage to the longer hitters of the TOUR, especially those with strong long irons.
Driving will be a premium here at East Lake which features the most narrow fairways on TOUR and annually holds a top-three placement in missed fairway penalty of all courses played on TOUR.
With the narrow fairways, this track still rewards golfers with above-average distance off-the-tee.
Over 30-percent of all approach shots taken this week will come from 200-plus yards, going along with the three par-threes over 200 yards, those with strong long irons will get a leg up this week.
The green complexes featured this week are nuanced, just as we’ve seen at other Ross designs on TOUR (Sedgefield Country Club and Detroit Golf Club.) The greens are also Bermuda, taking away some of the importance of strong-putting.
Scrambling too will be of the utmost importance this week with these extremely narrow fairways and the force of golfers playing from the rough. With such implications on the line, being able to scramble and then in turn, avoid bogeys, will be the difference.
Additionally, two-of-the-last-three TOUR Championships have been determined by just one stroke.
Overall, East Lake takes a complete tee-to-green game to be successful. Any hopeful winner will require a well-balanced attack.
Annually, half of the holes played at East Lake field hold a scoring average above par.
The Weather
As of the time of writing this, we should be in line for four clear days of golf this week. There is at most a 5-percent chance of precipitation (Sunday) this week. Additionally, winds will be at the highest on Friday at 15 miles-per-hour and nine miles-per-hour on Saturday. Thursday currently calls for just four miles-per-hour winds and Sunday three miles-per-hour. Temperatures will begin at 94-degrees on Thursday and hold steady there until falling to 88-degrees on Sunday.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG: TTG)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) / Average Driving Distance
Good Drives Percentage
Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)
Par Four Average Scoring
Par Three Average Scoring
Proximity to the Hole from 200-plus Yards
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Birdie or Better Percentage
Betting Card
This is a difficult event to handicap for obvious reasons. Realistically, just a handful of guys can claim the Tour Championship and with Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele leading the charge, it’ll be hard to top either. There is an option on multiple books to bet the tournament without starting strokes and that is where I’ll be spending my time this week. On top of that, this is just a 30-man field, so the odds will be slim out-of-the-gate.
Sam Burns (+2200)
In the 72-hole stroke play betting market, I love Sam Burns this week. He’s fresh off a second place finish last week at the BMW Championship. He also placed T5th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Heck, even prior to the playoffs he finished T12th at the 3M Open. Burns shot a -10 here a season ago to finish T9th overall. His -10 would have finished him T4th in stroke play. Burns is currently second on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 11th in par four average scoring, 15th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 38th in average driving distance, 44th in both SG: TTG and SG: OTT, 59th in par three average scoring, 63rd in bogey avoidance, 67th in ball striking, 70th in scrambling, 82nd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 87th in SG: APP and 98th in good drives percentage. In other words, he’s above average in each of the 13 statistical categories I took into consideration this week. Burns is kind of the forgotten child of the PGA Tour but boy is he very good at golf.
Adam Scott (+2800)
Adam Scott finished T2nd alongside Burns a week ago. The 14-time PGA Tour winner also placed T18th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, T10th at The Open Championship and second at the Genesis Scottish Open coming into this week. He was absent from this event a season ago. Scott is currently 31st on Tour in SG: OTT, 34th in SG: TTG, 35th in par three average scoring, 39th in average driving distance, 49th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 59th in bogey avoidance, 63rd in par four average scoring, 64th in scrambling, 72nd in ball striking, 73rd in SG: APP, 80th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 85th in birdie or better percentage and 94th in good drives percentage. Like Burns, Scott is above average in each of the 13 statistical categories I took into consideration this week.
Billy Horschel (+3300)
Horschel placed T22nd last week at the BMW Championship but prior to that placed T10th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, T7th at the Wyndham Championship and T2nd at The Open Championship. He’s currently fifth on Tour in par three average scoring, 18th in scrambling, 19th in bogey avoidance, 21st in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 43rd in ball striking, 51st in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 58th in SG: TTG, 60th in SG: OTT, 77th in birdie or better percentage, 83rd in good drives percentage, 90th in par four average scoring, 98th in SG: APP and 99th in average driving distance.
Comentarios