Out of the Rough: The Chevron Championship (2025)

The first major of the LPGA season is upon us as the world’s best women golfers head to The Club at Carlton Woods for The Chevron Championship.

It will be held for the third-consecutive seasons at The Club at Carlton Woods.

This event was previously held at the Mission Hills Country Club in Rancho Mirage, California since its inception on Tour in 1972 and has served as the first major event of the season since 1983.

With the new location, we no longer will see the infamous pond jump into Poppie’s Pond by the tournament winner, which is a bummer.

The event moved to The Club at Carlton Woods in The Woodlands, Texas in 2023 serving as just the second course to host this event in its 52 years of existence.

As the women’s game continues to evolve, a purse of $7.9 million will be awarded this week.

The Field

What is there to say about this week’s field besides the fact that, you name them, they’ll be here.

Nelly Korda, the World No.1, comes in as the defending champion as she held off Sweden’s Maja Stark to win by two strokes a season ago. The victory served as Korda’s second Major title as she won the 2021 Women’s PGA Championship. 

Lilia Vu won the first The Chevron Championship held at The Club at Carlton Woods in a playoff over Angel Yin in 2023.

Lydia Ko won the latest Major, claiming the AIG Women’s Open in August of 2024.

The current top ten in the world consists of Korda, Jeeno Thitikul, Ko, Vu, Hannah Green, Ruoning Yin, Ayaka Furue, Angel Yin, Haeran Ryu and Charley Hull.

Thitkul, Angel Yin, Ryu and Hull look to claim their first Major title with a victory this week.

Current World Amateur Golf Ranking (WAGR) No. 1 Lottie Woad will be making her LPGA debut this week as well. Woad won the 2024 Augusta National Women's Amateur Championship and is currently a junior at Florida State University.

The Course

The Club at Carlton Woods is a Jack Nicklaus design that opened in 2001 and will pose a difficult test to even the World’s best golfers.

It will play as a par-72 at 6,824 yards and takes full advantage of the natural lakes, ponds, forests and rolling terrain of the area.

It offers generous teeing grounds and landing areas but the wind between lakes can cause misplaced shots.

Areas of natural vegetation separate several of the holes which not only adds to the beauty of the course, but adds an additional challenge.

One of the key holes at this week’s track is the par-five 18th hole that is reachable. Although the hole is reachable, it is best described as a classic risk-reward hole.

It is surrounded by water so there will be a big decision to be made in going for the green or laying up.

The greens are both undulating and surrounded by bunkers. Playing from the sand will be the routine this week.

Getting off the tee will be rather important this week in both distance and accuracy. With natural vegetation everywhere on the course, a misplaced tee shot can derail anyone’s round.

The course also plays on the longer side of LPGA standards, so those who can bomb it off-the-tee will see an advantage this week.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, Thursday and Friday are both currently calling for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Thursday is calling for a 50-percent chance of precipitation and Friday a 55-percent chance. Both Saturday and Sunday call for a 25-percent chance of precipitation. Winds are set to be the highest on Thursday at 14 miles-per-hour. Winds will dip to eight miles-per-hour for both Friday and Saturday. Winds will then increase to 13 miles-per-hour come Sunday. Temperatures will begin at 85-degrees on Thursday before dipping to 81-degrees for Friday. Temperatures will then increase to 83-degrees on Saturday and 85-degrees on Sunday. 

 Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Average Driving Distance

• Scoring Average

• Sand Saves Percentage

• Putts Per Round

• Driving Accuracy

• Par 5 Average Scoring

Betting Card

A Lim Kim (+2500)

Per my stats based model, my overall favorite this week is A Lim Kim. Kim is currently seventh on Tour in both scoring average and par-five average scoring, ninth in SG: ATG, 17th in putts-per-round, 18th in driving accuracy, 19th in average driving distance and 37th in SG: APP. Of golfers who have played at least five events so far this season, A Lim Kim has the second best average finishing placement to just Jeeno Thitikul. Kim won the Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions, placed sixth at the Honda LPGA Thailand, seventh at the HSBC Women’s World Championship, 17th at the Blue Bay LPGA and 13th at the Ford Championship presented by Wild Horse Pass. She placed T9th here a season ago and T4th here in 2023. She is in elite form and has elite course history here. She won the U.S. Women’s Open back in 2020 as well.

Nasa Hataoka (+2800)

Right behind Kim in my stats based model is Nasa Hataoka. Hataoka is currently fourth on Tour in SG: APP, 11th in scoring average, 23rd in par-five average scoring, 26th in driving accuracy, 29th in putts-per-round, 30th in SG: ATG and 80th in average driving distance. Of golfers who have played at least five tournaments this season, Hataoka has the fourth best average finishing placement behind the aforementioned Thitkul and Kim as well as Minjee Lee. Hataoka placed sixth last week at the JM Eagle LA Championship, 17th at the For Championship presented by Wild Horse Pass, eighth at the Blue Bay LPGA, 14th at the HSBC Women’s World Championship and 11th at the Founders Cup presented by U.S. Virgin Islands. She placed T13th here a season ago and T37th in 2023. She is seeking his maiden Major title, having career runner-ups at the U.S. Women’s Open (2021) and Women’s PGA Championship (2018.) She also has best finishes of third at the Evian Championship (2023,) seventh at the Women’s British Open (2022) and seventh in this event in 2020. 

Akie Iwai (+3300)

Akie Iwai is an elite iron-player as she ranks fifth on Tour in SG: APP. She is also second in scoring average, tenth in par-five average scoring, 14th in average driving distance, 31st in putts-per-round, 58th in driving accuracy and 102nd in SG: ATG. She was the runner-up a week ago at the JM Eagle LA Championship and was also the runner-up at the Honda LPGA Thailand earlier this season. She placed T29th here a season ago. The young Japanese star had an insane end to the season last year. She placed T7th at the Women’s British Open and T10th at the Evian Championship. She’ll win a Major in her career, so what not this week?

Gaby Lopez (+6000)

Lopez is fresh off a missed cut at last week’s JM Eagle LA Championship but prior to that had an insane run of three consecutive quality outings. She placed sixth at the Ford Championship presented by Wild Horse Pass, eighth at the LPGA Blue Bay and fourth at the HSBC Women’s World Championship. She did miss the cut here a season ago but placed T28th in 2023. Her best finish at a Major was the 2023 Evian Championship where she finished T3rd. She also placed T9th at the 2020 Women’s PGA Championship and T11th at the 2016 U.S. Women’s Open. Lopez is currently 24th on Tour in SG: APP, 26th in average driving distance, 42nd in scoring average, 43rd in putts-per-round, 48th in SG: ATG, 72nd in par-five average scoring and 111th in driving accuracy. 

Patty Tavatanakit (+8000)

The 2021 Chevron Championship winner comes into this week with some long odds and I’m here for it. Tavatanakit is not only a Major winner, but she has shown up at each of the Majors across her career. She placed T5th at the 2021 Women’s PGA Championship, T5th at the 2018 U.S. Women’s Open, T7th at the 2021 Women’s British Open and third at the 2024 Evian Championship. She’s only played in three events so far this season, placing 38th in her last outing at the Ford Championship presented by Wild Horse Pass. She also placed fourth on home soil at the Honda LPGA Thailand and 20th at the Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions to open the season. Tavatanakit is currently third on Tour in SG: ATG, 13th in scoring average, 16th in average driving distance, 21st in par-five average scoring, 36th in driving accuracy, 41st in putts-per-round and 67th in SG: APP.