Out of the Rough: RBC Heritage (2025)

From the Green Jacket to the Plaid Jacket.

With the Masters Tournament behind us, the PGA Tour turns its attention to Harbour Town Golf Links for this week’s RBC Heritage.

This was once an event that drew the short-end-of-the-stick, dealing with the Masters ‘hang-over.’ For the third consecutive season, the RBC Heritage will play under Signature Event status and therefore, we’ll see the Tour’s best tee it up this week in South Carolina.

The event is held annually at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Islands, just a mere 142 miles from Augusta National and has been a staple of the PGA Tour since 1969.

What was once described as a relaxing trip to the lowcountry of South Carolina after the stress of The Masters and the first major of the season will be no longer as it comes with a $20 Million purse for grabs.

The Field

Being a Signature Event, the field sits at 72-golfers as all of the Tour’s best are slated to tee it up this week.

The most notable absentee this week is Rory McIlroy who routinely skips this event, although he teed it up here a season ago.

Hideki Matsuyama is currently the only other eligible player who will not be in attendance this week. He too didn’t play this event a season ago.

As it sits, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Aberg are all slated to tee it up this week.

There will be some late withdrawals following the Masters.

World No.1 Scheffler looks to defend his title as he topped Sahith Theegala by three strokes a season ago.

He’ll be joined by the 2023 winner Matt Fiztpatrick who topped Jordan Spieth in a playoff. Spieth won this event in 2022, topping Patrick Cantlay in a playoff.

We have seen a playoff at this event two-of-the-past-three seasons and seven times since 2010.

The Course

Harbour Town Golf Links is a course that makes up for its lack of length with tight fairways and the smallest greens on the entirety of the PGA Tour.

The Pete Dye designed course plays as a par 71 and comes in at around 7,100 yards

Harbour Town’s biggest defense is the size of its greens. As previously mentioned, the greens are the smallest on Tour. As well as being smaller in size, they are contoured in a way to challenge even the game’s best putters.

Along with the challenges on the greens, the combination of the fairways being both tight and tree lined with overhanging mossy oaks makes getting off the tee a challenge.

The course annually ranks as the venue with the fewest drives over 300 yards and shortest average driving distances on the PGA Tour. Harbour Town’s average distance off the tee is 268 yards as the PGA Tour average sits at roughly 299 yards.

Although finding the fairway at any track is important, Harbour Town is one of the few courses on the PGA Tour where driving means very little. Traditionally speaking from a statistics standpoint, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee means less than Strokes Gained: Around the Green among top-ten finishers. That is very rare on the PGA Tour.

Heck, a lot of the holes this week are structured in a way where being in the right rough generates better birdie opportunities than being situated in the left section of the fairway.

The greens in regulation percentage (GIR%) at Harbour Town too is among the lowest on Tour in terms of average. Due to its Tour smallest greens in size, the course boasts a GIR% of 58-percent. Taking advantage of the proper angle will be imperative to scoring.

In the end, players are treated to an 18th hole that sits flush to the Calibogue Sound. Along with the famed red-and-white lighthouse standing sentry over the green, this creates one of the most scenic settings on all of the PGA Tour.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, there is at most a ten-percent chance of precipitation on Sunday. Saturday currently calls for a five-percent chance as the rest of the week calls for a zero-percent chance. Temperatures will be at the lowest on Thursday at 70-degrees and will gradually increase to 79-degrees come Sunday. Winds will begin at 11 miles-per-hour on Thursday before increasing to 12 miles-per-hour on Friday. Winds will be at the highest on Saturday at 16 miles-per-hour before returning to 12 miles-per-hour on Sunday. In all, a perfect four days for golf. 

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

• Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%)

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

• Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)

• Good Drives Gained

• Scrambling

• Proximity to the Hole from 125-200 Yards

• Bogey Avoidance

• Ball Striking

DFS Suggestions

$10,000+

Per my stats based model, Collin Morikawa ($10,900) is my overall favorite this week. His odds are too slim for me to back him in the outright market but here in DFS, he’s the ideal candidate. He’s the third most expensive golfer this week to just Scottie Scheffler ($13,100) and Ludvig Aberg ($11,000.) Morikawa is currently first on Tour in SG: APP, second in good drives gained, third in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, tenth in bogey avoidance, 12th in GIR%, 25th in ball striking, 26th in scrambling, 34th in SG: ATG and 132nd in SG: PUTT Bermuda. We know the downfall of Morikawa has always been on the greens with the putter. You simply have to plug your nose and hope the rest of the game can carry. In six events he’s played so far this season, he has an average finishing placement of 10.33. His worst finish has been 17th (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational) on the season. He placed 14th at the Masters Tournament, tenth at THE PLAYERS Championship and second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational across his last three starts. He also placed second at The Sentry Tournament of Champions to start the 2025 season. He has played this event each of the past five seasons, even prior to it being a Signature Event. He placed ninth here a season ago, 31st in 2023, 26th in 2022, seventh in 2021 and 64th in 2020. 

$9,000-$9,900

First up in this price range is Russell Henley ($9,700.) When you think of short-positional golf courses, one of the first names that comes to mind is Henley. He is currently second on Tour in GIR%, fifth in good drives gained, 15th in both SG: ATG and proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 23rd in both SG: APP and bogey avoidance, 33rd in ball striking, 68th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 119th in scrambling. He did miss the cut last week at the Masters Tournament but prior to that had an average finishing placement of 17.3 across seven events. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and also placed 30th at THE PLAYERS Championship, sixth at the Cognizant Classic, 39th at The Genesis Invitational, fifth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, tenth at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 30th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He has a mixed bag of results at this golf course over the past five seasons as well. He placed 12th a season ago, 19th in 2023 and ninth in 2021. He also missed the cut here in 2022 and 2020. Henley is also on my betting card at +2800. Also consider Jason Day ($9,100.) Day is currently 11th on Tour in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 14th in bogey avoidance, 32nd in scrambling, 43rd in SG: ATG, 49th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 51st in SG: APP, 62nd in GIR%, 81st in good drives gained and 126th in ball striking. Day has been playing some great golf as of late. He’s fresh off an eighth place finish at the Masters Tournament. He also placed 27th at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, eighth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 50th at The Genesis Invitational, 13th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 32nd at the Farmers Insurance Open, third at The American Express and 40th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions on the season. He’s played this event just twice over the past five seasons, placing 18th a season ago and missing the cut in 2020. Day is also on my betting card at +4000.

$8,000-$8,900

Sepp Straka ($8,800) is my first play in this price range. He did miss the cut last week at the Masters Tournament but prior to that had an average finishing placement of 20.6 across ten tournaments. He won The American Express earlier this season. More recently, he placed 28th at the Valspar Championship, 14th at THE PLAYERS Championship, fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 11th at the Cognizant Classic. He also placed 15th at the WM Phoenix Open, seventh at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 30th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 15th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions earlier this season. He’s also been rather good at this course as of late. He placed fifth a season ago and third in 2022. He also placed 59th in 2021 and 33rd in 2020. He did miss the cut here in 2023. Straka is currently first on Tour in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, third in GIR%, fifth in SG: APP, 11th in bogey avoidance, 15th in ball striking, 23rd in good drives gained, 83rd in scrambling, 91st in SG: ATG and 98th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Straka is also on my betting card at +4500. Also consider Robert MacIntyre ($8,800.) MacIntyre was one of the betting darlings of the Masters Tournament a week ago where he went on to miss the cut. However, prior to that he had been playing some great golf. He placed ninth at THE PLAYERS Championship, 11th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, sixth at the WM Phoenix Open, 40th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 53rd at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 15th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. MacIntyre hasn’t played here since 2021 where he placed 59th. On Tour he is currently seventh in GIR%, ninth in ball striking, 19th in good drives gained, 21st in SG: APP, 25th in bogey avoidance, 26th in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 66th in SG: ATG, 94th in scrambling and 107th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. 

$7,000 - $7,900

Leading off this price range is J.J. Spaun ($7,800.) Now Spaun’s track record here is, how do I put this lightly, bad. He’s played three-of-the-past-five seasons where he’s missed the cut in all three of them. However, Spaun is playing the best golf of his career this season. He made the cut last week at the Masters Tournament and prior to that (outside of a missed cut at the Texas Children’s Houston Open) placed second at THE PLAYERS Championship, 31st at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, second at the Cognizant Classic, 34th at The Genesis Invitational, 33rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 15th at the Farmers Insurance Open, 29th at The American Express and third at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Across ten events this season, he has an average finishing placement of 27.9, even with a missed cut. Spaun is currently second on Tour in SG: APP, fifth in ball striking, sixth in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, eighth in GIR%, 19th in bogey avoidance, 46th in good drives gained, 100th in SG: ATG, 110th in scrambling and 118th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Also consider Bud Cauley ($7,500.) Cauley has not played this event since 2020 where he missed the cut but just like Spaun, Cauley is playing the best golf of his career this season. Cauley has missed just cut one cut in seven events so far this season. He has an average finishing placement of 28.9 across those same seven events as well. His run of form coming into this week is essentially unmatched on the PGA Tour this season. He placed fifth in his last outing at the Valero Texas Open. He also placed fourth at the Valspar Championship and sixth at THE PLAYERS Championship across his last three outings. He also placed 56th at the Cognizant Classic, 21st at the WM Phoenix Open and 30th at the Sony Open in Hawaii on the season. Cauley is currently 15th on Tour in SG: APP, 37th in scrambling, 39th in GIR%, 57th in both SG: ATG and bogey avoidance, 72nd in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 73rd in both good drives gained and proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards and 81st in ball striking. In other terms, he’s above average or average in each of the nine statistical categories I took into consideration this week. 

$6,900-

I absolutely love both of my plays in this price range this week. First up we have Nick Taylor ($6,400.) Taylor is currently fifth on Tour in GIR%, ninth in both SG: APP and bogey avoidance, 14th in good drives gained, 22nd in both scrambling and proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 35th in ball striking, 98th in SG: ATG and 111th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Taylor’s run of form as of late has not been great. He did place 40th last week at the Masters Tournament but prior to that he missed the cut in back-to-back events at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and THE PLAYERS Championship. Earlier this season he placed 31st at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, ninth at The Genesis Invitational, 25th at the WM Phoenix Open, 33rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 12th at The American Express, 48th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions and won the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s played this event each of the past four seasons, placing 49th a season ago, 41st in 2023 and missed the cut in both 2022 and 2021. Taylor is on my betting card at +170000. Also consider Ryo Hisatsune ($6,300.) He is currently 26th on Tour in good drives gained, 30th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 34th in bogey avoidance, 36th in GIR%, 45th in ball striking, 59th in SG: APP, 69th in SG: ATG, 82nd in scrambling and 84th in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards. Hisatsune’s run of form coming in has been great. He placed fifth in his last outing at the Valero Texas Open. He also placed 47th at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and fourth at THE PLAYERS Championship. He also placed tenth this season at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. He’ll be making his RBC Heritage debut this week. Hisatsune is also on my betting card at +22000.

Betting Card

• Russell Henley (+2800)

• Jason Day (+4000)

• Sepp Straka (+4500)

• Denny McCarthy (+6000)

• Nick Taylor (+17000)

• Ryo Hisatsune (+22000)

Denny McCarthy (+6000)

McCarthy is currently fifth on Tour in bogey avoidance, ninth in scrambling, 17th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 45th in SG: APP, 66th in GIR%, 94th in good drives gained, 95th in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 96th in SG: ATG and 102nd in ball striking. McCarthy has played in ten events so far this season, making the cut in each of them and having an average finishing placement of 26.8. He placed 29th last week at the Masters Tournament, 18th at the Valero Texas Open, 14th at THE PLAYERS Championship, 18th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 48th at the Cognizant Classic, fifth at The Genesis Invitational, 16th at the WM Phoenix Open, 58th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 16th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 46th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions this season. McCarthy has played this event each of the last five seasons. He placed 28th a season ago, 25th in 2023, 56th in 2022, 13th in 2021 and missed the cut in 2020.