Out of the Rough: RBC Canadian Open
Another week on the PGA Tour and another successful outing for the Out of the Rough series. We continue to pump out results week-in-and-week-out. We rode Aaron Wise on an outright winning bet midway through the final round before cashing out when he got within three strokes of eventual winner Billy Horschel. We also doubled our money across the DFS board. If you’re not following along as of yet, why aren’t you? We haven’t lost money in eight straight weeks and have been in the money in most of them. We move onto the Canadian Open with a star-studded field this week!
The Memorial Results
Xander Schauffele (-2) - T18th
Shane Lowry (+1) - T32nd
Mito Pereira (-3) - T13th
Tom Hoge (+5) - MC
Adam Hadwin (-2) - T18th
Rory McIlroy (-2) - T18th
Jordan Spieth (-2) - T18th
Sungjae Im (-4) - T10th
Aaron Wise (-9) - 2nd
Martin Laird (+2) - T37th
After a two year hiatus due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, the world’s third oldest open championship makes its long awaited return to the PGA Tour.
This year’s installment of the RBC Canadian Open will be held at St. George’s G&CC, a course the tour has not seen since 2010.
The Toronto based course is one that will require accuracy off the tee, as it features very narrow and heavily tree-lined fairways. The rough at the time of writing this too is major-esk, another added obstacle to the already daunting tee shots.
It’s a Stanley Thompson designed course, meaning it was developed with the approach shots being of the utmost importance. Along with hitting the fairway, those with great ball striking and iron play will be set up with short birdie chances throughout the week.
There are just three par 5’s on the course, all of which should offer low scoring. There are not many doglegs at the venue, allowing the greens to be reached in two, even when clubbing down off the tee box.
The course does have five par 3’s; one of which is on the shorter end with four exceeding 204 yards. Look for those with great efficiency scores in par 3’s 200-225 yards to gain a few strokes on the field. These longer par 3’s will see golfers treading water opposed to looking to score low on those four holes.
Seven of the par 4’s at the venue exceed 450 yards. We’ll also look into efficiency scores of par 4’s 450-500 yards.
St. George’s biggest defense is its smaller-than-normal Bentgrass greens that are surrounded by bunkers. Golfers who are good at scrambling around the green, especially out of the sand, could see success this week.
As for weather this week, we’re seeing a colder spring in Canada so highs will be in the 70’s. There is rain in the forecast early this week and a high chance of rain for Thursday morning. Those with early tee times on Thursday could be in for a bit of a struggle as the course dries out throughout the day and ultimately weekend.
Along with par 3 efficiency 200-225 yards and par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards, other important statistics to pay attention to include Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP,) fairway hit percentage, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG: TTG) and Strokes Gained: Around the Green (Scrambling from the Sand.)
It’s hard to go wrong with anyone in this price range. Rory McIlroy is the defending champion of the event, although it took place at Hamilton Golf and Country Club. Scottie Scheffler is the World #1 and Justin Thomas won the PGA Championship a few weeks ago. Although this price range is led by such names, I’m going to lead off here with the cheapest golfer in this price range, Sam Burns ($10,000.) Burns is seventh on tour in par 3 efficiency 200-225 yards, 12th in SG: APP, 23rd in SG: TTG and 32nd in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards. Last time we saw Burns, two weeks back at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he took home the victory. Prior to that he placed T20th at the PGA Championship, second at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, first at the Valspar Championship and T9th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Burns has missed a few cuts in that same time span but when he does make the cut, he makes it count. Also consider ol’ reliable Shane Lowry ($10,100.) We always find our way back to Lowry and that’s for good reason. He’s fourth on tour in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards, 11th in SG: APP, 28th in SG: TTG and 46th in SG: ATG (scrambling from the sand.) The Irishman has made nine straight cuts, highlighted by a second place finish at The Honda Classic and T3rds at the Masters and RBC Heritage. In that same time span, his worst finish in stroke play was a T32nd last week at the Memorial. He had five top 15’s across those nine made cuts as well.
My favorite to win this week actually can be found in this second tier. Corey Conners ($9,600) has finished with the highest rating according to our formula. He’ll be receiving some outright bets on my behalf this week. Conners is top 38 in all six statistical categories we’ve highlighted for this week. He’s third on tour in par 3 efficiency 200-225 yards, 21st in SG: TTG, 28th in both fairway hit percentage and SG: ATG (scrambling from the sand,) 37th in SG: APP and 38th in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards. Conners has missed just one cut over his last nine tournaments with a third place finish at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. He has a T6th at the Masters as well as three other top 15’s (the Memorial, RBC Heritage and the Arnold Palmer Invitational.) On top of all of this, he’s Canadian. There’s a bit of added pressure as he looks to claim his own country’s open championship. Also consider Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,900.) After Conners, Fitzpatrick is my second favorite for this week. He’s top 89 in each of the six statistical categories we’ve highlighted thus far. He’s third in SG: TTG, 17th in par 3 efficiency 200-225 yards, 24th in SG: APP, 25th in SG: ATG (scrambling from the sand,) 48th in fairway hit percentage and 89th in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards. Fitzpatrick has just three missed cuts in the entire season. He did miss the cut last week at the Memorial but prior to that had back-to-back weeks with a T2nd at the Wells Fargo Championship and T5th at the PGA Championship. He also has not finished worse than T18th during this calendar year after making the cut.
This is a price range I’m not too enthused with about this week, however, I do like C.T. Pan ($8,100.) He’s a bit of a value play this week and is being highly suggested across the major internet outlets. He’s elite when it comes to par 3 efficiency 200-225 yards where he ranks sixth on tour. Additionally, he’s 41st in SG: APP, 52nd in SG: TTG and 81st in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards. He’s also average in both fairway hit percentage and SG: ATG (scrambling from the sand.) Pan has not missed a cut dating back to The Players in early March. In that span his top finish was T15th at the Wells Fargo Championship. Also consider Brendon Todd ($8,200.) Todd is actually in the positive in Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass.) I wouldn’t say he’s a Bentgrass specialist for say, but he is top 35 on tour when it comes to it. He’s also fourth on tour in fairway hit percentage and fifth in par 3 efficiency 200-225 yards. He’s top 100 in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards as well. Last time we saw Todd was the Charles Schwab Challenge where he finished third. He did miss the cut at the AT&T Byron Nelson but did make four straight cuts prior, including a T9th at the Valero Texas Open and two top 26’s.
The two golfers we have for this price range are two I will feature heavily in DFS play. Both are the same price actually. First off we have Martin Laird ($7,500,) a guy becoming popular in this series for his great value. Laird is 14th on tour in fairway hit percentage, 38th in SG: TTG, 45th in SG: APP, 53rd in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards, 73rd in SG: ATG (scrambling from the sand,) and top 100 in par 3 efficiency 200-225 yards. He did make the cut last week at the Memorial. Also consider Tyler Duncan ($7,500.) Duncan is eighth on tour in fairway hit percentage. He’s also 46th in SG: TTG, 60th in SG: APP, 65th in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards, 70th in SG: ATG (scrambling from the sand) and top 100 in par 3 efficiency 200-225 yards. Duncan has made two straight cuts at the AT&T Byron Nelson and Charles Schwab Challenge.
I’m very excited about Vaughn Taylor ($6,800) this week. He actually scores really high in our module this week. Taylor is fourth on tour in par 3 efficiency 200-225 yards and seventh in fairway hit percentage. He’s top 50 in AG: APP and 53rd in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards. He’s also 80th in SG: TTG. Taylor made the cut during his last appearance at the AT&T Byron Nelson in early May. He also placed T7th at the Puerto Rico Open and T25th at the Corales Puntacana Championship in March. Also consider Hayen Buckley ($6,900.) Buckley is elite when hitting out of the sand as he’s fifth on tour in SG: ATG (scrambling from the sand.) He’s also 19th in fairway hit percentage and 26th in par 3 efficiency 200-225 yards. On top of that he’s 51st in par 4 efficient 450-500 yards and 93rd in SG: TTG.
Strokes Gained: Proximity to Course
Strokes gained: Proximity to Course (SG: PTC) is the patented statistic developed by Lenny of the Out of the Rough Podcast. Each week, we will pick a golfer local to the course to be his SG: PTC choice. Last week Lenny went with Mackenzie Hughes who finished T37th at The Memorial Tournament.
This week Lenny is going with Canadian, Adam Svensson.
SG: PTC Past Results
The Honda Classic - Chase Seiffert (+1) - T25th
The Arnold Palmer Invitational - John Pak (+8) - T52nd
The Players - Billy Horschel (WD)
The Valspar Championship - Sam Ryder (-1) - MC
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play - MC
The Valero Texas Open - Adam Long (-5) - T35th
The Masters - Patrick Reed (+6) - T35th
The RBC Heritage - Brian Harman (-6) - T35th
The Zurich Classic - Jay and Billy Haas (E) - T59th
The Mexico Open - Carlos Ortiz (-5) - T51st
The AT&T Byron Nelson - Harry Higgs (-4) - MC
The PGA Championship - Talor Gooch (+1) - T20th
The Charles Schwab Challenge - Tom Hoge (+4) - MC
The Memorial Tournament - Mackenzie Hughes (+2) - T37th
One and Done
*Rules: A golfer can only be played once all season unless the chosen golfer wins the respective tournament. If the chosen golfer wins, he can be used again. We will keep track of success via monetary earnings to add value to bigger tournaments. We will track my choices for the rest of the season below.
Last week at the Memorial Tournament I went with Xander Schauffele who finished T18th. We’ve gone over the four-million-dollar mark. This week I’ll go with Corey Conners who is my favorite to win. Let’s hope we can have a repeat of our PGA Championship pick and get a winner yet again.
The Masters - Shane Lowry ($870,000)
The RBC Heritage - Adam Hadwin ($54,844)
The Zurich Classic - Marc Lesihman ($24,111.50)
The Mexico Open - Gary Woodland ($60,955)
The AT&T Byron Nelson - Sam Burns ($0)
The PGA Championship - Justin Thomas ($2,700,000)
The Charles Schwab Challenge - Mito Pereira ($246,540)
The Memorial Tournament - Xander Schauffele ($142,800)