For the fourth consecutive season, the PGA Tour heads to Mexico for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld.
Although returning to the Tour, being just the fourth playing, this event and course is one of the newer events the Tour has to offer.
This event was also played during the last week of April during its first two installments. Last year, it was moved to its new February time slot, splitting the West-Coast and the Florida swings.
The event originated from the Mexican Golf Open which dates back to 1944. It is considered Mexico’s national championship.
The Mexico Open takes over for the WGC Mexico Championship which is no longer being held.
The Field
Following a Signature Event in last week’s The Genesis Invitational and splitting the Tour’s west-coast and Florida swings, this event fails to draw a field of notable attendees.
Instead, we often see a few of the Tour’s best along with some of the up-and-comers and unsung heroes battle it out in Mexico.
Jake Knapp comes in as the defending champion, holding off Finland’s Sami Valimaki by two strokes to claim his maiden PGA Tour victory a season ago.
Knapp will be back this year to help headline the field along with Rasmus and Nicolai Hojgaard, Akshay Bhatia and Maverick McNealy.
There are a slew of sponsor exemptions, 14 to be exact, and one of them is going to two time The Open Champion and one time PGA Championship winner Padraig Harrington. Seventeen-year-old Blades Brown will also be playing under a sponsor exemption as well.
Jon Rahm won the inaugural playing in 2022 and Tony Finau won in 2023. Both will not be playing this week.
The Course
The Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta in Puerto Vallarta is a Greg Norman design and will host its fourth PGA Tour event with the return of the Mexico Open.
This Par 71 championship course played as a top-ten course in total yardage last season at just shy of 7,500.
The course extends along the Ameca River with spectacular views of the nearby Sierra Madre Mountain Range. The inclusion of indigenous trees, native grasses and jungle that surround the core course adds to its natural beauty.
Fun fact, the course features the world's longest golf cart suspension bridge spanning the Ameca River from Nayarit to Jalisco.
Getting off the tee is of the utmost importance this week as this course can best be described as a “bombers paradise” as it is a flat track with wide fairways and very little rough.
As previously mentioned, the course plays to the tune of just shy of 7,500 yards, placing it in the top-ten courses in total yardage a year ago. It offers generous fairways and non penal rough. Therefore the course rewards the longest drivers in the field.
Long iron play too will be something we look very closely at this week as a year ago, 35-percent of total approach shots came from beyond 200 yards. That is nearly double the PGA Tour average.
The plethora of 200-yard-plus approach shots come from the combination of three 195-plus yard par-threes, four long par-fives and six par-fours that play over 450 yards.
The Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta features slow and sticky Paspalum grass throughout.
Although the greens too are Paspalum, they play fast with plenty of subtle breaks and undulation and played to the tune of 12 on the Stimpmeter a year ago. The green complexes too are on the larger side when it comes to PGA Tour standards.
The greens are also well protected by bunkers, with 106 total on the course and are surrounded by tricky collection areas. Although featuring the tricky collection areas around the greens, Paspalum levels the field when it comes to around the green play.
Water too is in play on 14 holes this week and along with numerous sandy waste areas, will serve as a line of defense to the course in capturing wayward shots.
The course too is known for its high winds that come from the Pacific Coast line. Golfers well coursed in windy conditions will see an advantage this week.
The Weather
As of the time of writing this, there is at most a five-percent chance of precipitation on Thursday as the rest of the week is forecasted at a zero-percent chance. Winds are set at ten miles-per-hour across all four days. Temperatures will begin at the lowest on Thursday at 81-degrees before peaking at 86-degrees on Saturday and settling to 85-degrees on Sunday. In all, it looks to be a clear four days of golf this week.
Key Stats
Average Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT)
Approach Shots from 200-plus Yards
Birdie or Better Percentage
Sand Saves Percentage
Greens in Regulation Percentage
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: PUTT)
Bogey Avoidance
DFS Suggestions
$10,000+
With just three options in this price range, I’ll go to the top of the board with Akshay Bhatia ($10,700.) Bhatia is currently 12th on Tour in SG: PUTT, 25th in birdie or better percentage, 30th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 33rd in bogey avoidance, 41st in SG: APP, 58th in sand saves percentage, 78th in SG: OTT and 169th in average driving distance. Bhatia has appeared in each of the PGA Tour’s last three events, placing ninth last week at The Genesis Invitational, 32nd at the WM Phoenix Open and 22nd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He also placed 32nd at The Sentry Tournament of Champions this season. He’s also played this event just once previously, placing fourth in 2023.
$9,000-$9,900
Leading off this price range is Sam Stevens ($9,800.) Stevens has played a lot of golf to start this season, appearing in six-of-seven tournaments. The only tournament he didn’t play was The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He’s made the cut in all six of the events he’s played, highlighted by a runner-up performance at the Farmers Insurance Open. He also placed 17th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He did play in this event a season ago where he missed the cut. Stevens is currently 23rd on Tour in bogey avoidance, 43rd in sand saves percentage, 45th in SG: OTT, 57th in average driving distance, 61st in SG: APP, 67th in SG: PUTT, 73rd in GIR%, 85th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards and 90th in birdie or better percentage. Also consider Michael Kim ($9,200.) Kim has been one of the early season feel good stories. He seemingly has re-found his game, placing second at the WM Phoenix Open and 13th at last week’s The Genesis Invitational. He also placed 43rd at The American Express. He’s also played this event each of the last two seasons, missing the cut last year but placing 30th in 2023. Kim is currently 12th on Tour in bogey avoidance, 29th in sand saves percentage, 37th in SG: APP, 47th in SG: OTT, 51st in GIR%, 65th in average driving distance, 91st in SG: PUTT, 148th in birdie or better percentage and 169th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards.
$8,000-$8,900
This will likely be one of the most owned guys this week but I can’t ignore what my model is telling me in Alex Smalley ($8,700.) Smalley has played this event each of the last three seasons, missing the cut in his last two appearances but did place sixth here in 2022. In the four tournaments he’s played so far this season, he placed 11th at The American Express, 16th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 21st at the WM Phoenix Open. Smalley is currently 18th on Tour in SG: PUTT, 23rd in sand saves percentage, 26th in SG: APP, 27th in GIR%, 29th in bogey avoidance, 42nd in birdie or better percentage, 45th in SG: OTT, 60th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards and 61st in average driving distance. In other words, he’s above average in each of the nine statistical categories I took into consideration this week. He is on my betting card at +4500. Also consider Nicolai Hojgaard ($8,100.) Another likely high ownership candidate due to his value. The Hojgaard we've seen during his time on the PGA Tour is not the Hojgaard he’ll always be. He was a part of the winning 2023 Ryder Cup team for Team Europe. He also has won his fair share of massive tournaments on the DP World Tour, including taking down the 2023 DP World Tour Championship with a slew of Europe’s best PGA Tour players in attendance. I don’t have stats to back this one up as he hasn’t played enough this season on the PGA Tour but at some point, the talent will over take the mental block he is under and he will thrive. This is a course that fits his game to a tee (no pun intended) as well. He’s also on my betting card at +5500.
$7,000-$7,900
I love the value in each of these final two price ranges. First on that list of value is Kevin Roy ($7,400.) Roy is currently second on Tour in bogey avoidance, 19th in average driving distance, 23rd in both SG: OTT and GIR%, 63rd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 80th in sand saves percentage, 82nd in SG: APP, 83rd in SG: PUTT and 86th in birdie or better percentage. Like Smalley, Roy is above average in each of the nine statistical categories I took into consideration this week. We’ve seen Roy just twice so far this season on the PGA Tour, as he placed 45th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 18th at The American Express. He played this event in 2023 where he finished 18th. Roy is also on my betting card at +6000. Also consider Trey Mulinax ($7,100.) Mullinax is currently fifth on Tour in SG: PUTT, eighth in average driving distance, 13th in birdie or better percentage, 33rd in GIR%, 51st in bogey avoidance, 58th in both SG: APP and SG: OTT, 140th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards and 153rd in sand saves percentage. Mullinax possesses that rare combination of being extremely long off the tee with an above average putter to compete at golf courses such as this. He’s played three events so far this season, placing 18th at The American Express and 32nd at the WM Phoenix Open. He’s played this event once prior, placing 24th in 2022. He’s also on my betting card at +10000.
$6,900-
Leading off this final price range is Jackson Suber ($6,900.) A recent promote to the PGA Tour from the Korn Ferry Tour, Suber has made the most of the early goings of his PGA Tour career. He placed sixth at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 56th at the Farmers Insurance Open in two-of-the-three events he’s played so far. He’ll be making his debut at this event and course this week. Suber is currently first on Tour in SG: APP, fourth in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 18th in SG: PUTT, 82nd in average driving distance, 90th in SG: OTT, 103rd in sand saves percentage, 106th in birdie or better percentage, 147th in bogey avoidance and 152nd in GIR%. He’s also on my betting card at +11000. Also consider Jeremy Paul ($6,600.) Like Suber, Paul is a recent promote to the PGA Tour from the Korn Ferry Tour. He too has played three events to begin his PGA Tour campaign, placing 45th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 64th at The American Express. He also will be making his debut here this week. Paul is currently sixth on Tour in average driving distance, 18th in GIR%, 23rd in sand saves percentage, 25th in SG: OTT, 35th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 39th in bogey avoidance, 118th in SG: APP, 132nd in SG: PUTT and 143rd in birdie or better percentage.
Betting Card
Alex Smalley (+4500)
Nicolai Hojgaard (+5500)
Kevin Roy (+6000)
Trey Mullinax (+10000)
Jackson Suber (+11000)
Sami Valimaki (+30000)
Sami Valimaki (+30000)
This play has nothing to do more than a massive number next to the guy who was the runner-up here a season ago. Valimaki has played three events so far this season, missing the cut in two of them but did place 15th at the Farmers Insurance Open. He is currently eighth on Tour in SG: PUTT, 11th in sand saves percentage, 38th in average driving distance, 79th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 87th in SG: OTT, 148th in bogey avoidance, 163rd in SG: APP, 167th in GIR% and 172nd in birdie or better percentage.
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