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  • Writer's pictureNate (@WeKnowFantasy)

Out of the Rough: John Deere Classic - FRL (2023)


We’re back again this week throwing some darts on the board in hopes to land a first round leader (FRL) bet for the opening round of the John Deere Classic.


Betting FRL adds a bit more excitement to your betting card. The odds are based on their outright odds, although longer. That is due to the possibilities to tie and therefore, splitting your profits.


For example, if you played $10 on Conners at the RBC Canadian Open and he was to lead after the first round alone, you would receive $350. In the event he tied with someone else, your payout would be split in half and you would receive $175. The number of golfers tied for the lead after the first round is the amount of times your payout would be divided.


With all of that being said, I’ve developed a model for FRLs that is passed on my overall model for the event, average first round scoring and then each golfer’s respective tee time (early or late) average scoring.


For in-depth breakdowns of my model and the statistical categories I took into consideration this week, visit: https://www.weknowfantasy.com/post/out-of-the-rough-john-deere-classic-2023


Let’s get into things!


FRL Betting Card

Russell Henley (+3300)

Henley is my overall favorite to win this week so you can see why I would be betting him as a FRL as well. He drew an early tee time this week and is currently 15th overall on Tour when it comes to early round average scoring. In this week’s field, he’s tops when taking into consideration each golfer's respective tee times (early/late) and their average scoring per their respective times relative to par. In late round scoring, Henley averages a score of 69.39 on the season. He’s also third among the field in overall scoring average relative to par.


Stephan Jaeger (+4500)

Although Jaeger comes in 14th in my model this week of those within the field, he is second to just Henley in early round scoring average where he sits at 69.44. In taking each golfer's performance compared to par for their respective tee times, Jaeger too is second to just Henley. He’s also sixth within this field in average scoring average on the season. Jaeger is elite when it comes to around-the-green work where he ranks ninth on the entire Tour. He also ranks 16th in greens in regulation percentage, 26th in par four average scoring, 46th in SG: BS and 49th in par five average scoring to highlight a few of the statistics I took into consideration for my model this week.


Nick Taylor (+5500)

Taylor was a winner on Tour a month ago, winning the RBC Canadian Open on home soil. He comes into this week 11th in my model among those within the field. He is also 12th in the field in scoring average taking into consideration each golfer's average scoring respective to their tee times. He drew a late round tee time this week where he averages a score of 69.82. He is fourth among those in the field in overall scoring average as well. To highlight a few statistics I took into consideration this week for my overall model, he’s tenth in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda, 15th in par four average scoring, 21st in birdie or better percentage, 26th in strokes gained: approach and 29th in par five average scoring.

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