Out of the Rough: John Deere Classic (2025)

In the final event state-side before heading across-the-pond for the Genesis Scottish Open and ultimately The Open Championship, the PGA Tour takes to TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic.

Held annually at the Silvis, IL based venue, there isn’t anything on TOUR quiet like both this event and course.

With the final Major event of the season in The Open Championship just two weeks away and a stop in Scotland for the Genesis Scottish Open a week away, this event annually serves as a natural bye week for many of the TOUR’s best.

That doesn’t mean there will be a lack of drama this week as this event annually offers a log-jammed leaderboard with players of diverse skill sets.

There too is a lot to play for, with the top finishers having a chance to punch their ticket to The Open.

The Field

Ben Griffin leads the charge as both the odds-on-favorite to win and the highest ranked golfer within the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) and 17th.

He’ll be joined by just Sungjae Im (25th) as golfers ranked within the top 25 of the OWGR.

In total, just six golfers ranked within the top 50 of the OWGR, including Jason Day (28th,) J.T. Poston (41st,) Denny McCarthy (43rd) and Lucas Glover (45th,) will be teeing it up this week.

Davis Thompson comes in as the defending champion, as he cruised to a four-stroke victory last year to claim his maiden PGA Tour victory, setting the tournament scoring record in the process (-28.) He’ll be back this week to defend his title.

Other former winners of this event playing this week include Poston (2022,) Glover (2021,) Dylan Frittelli (2019,) Michael Kim (2018,) Zach Johnson (2012) and Jonathan Byrd (2007.) 

The Course

TPC Deere Run has been the host of this event since 2000. It was designed by D.A. Weibring and comes in at 7,258 yards and plays as a par-71.

We can expect another birdie-fest this week as the winning score typically breaks into the -20’s. Thompson shot a -28 a season ago, breaking the tournament record previously held by Kim (-27.)

A winning score of -20 under-par or better has been the norm here as 12-of-the-last-15 installments reached that mark.

It goes without saying, this is not a challenging track. Despite that fact, there is the presence of undulated fairways, steep elevation changes and tight doglegs.

Due to this, golfers are required to use every club in their bag. There will be a premium on ball striking and short game, more than a typical birdie-fest. This course will reward the most precise ball strikers on TOUR who are able to convert most birdie looks.

The fairways and greens are above average in size in terms of Tour standards. Due to this, accurate ball strikers who can find the fairways and then greens in regulation will have success

Despite the fairways playing wider than most TOUR tracks, there are plenty of tight tree lines and ticker rough that forces layups.

There are multiple long par-threes and par-fours beyond 450 yards featured this week.

As previously mentioned, this event has been the host of many dramatic and climactic finishes. Like the Travelers, we’ve come to expect playoffs and one-stroke victories here at the John Deere Classic.

The winner has emerged from a playoff or by one-stroke 16 times since 2000.

Course form isn’t a necessity here but the correlation to other short course birdie-fest type tracks is. For example, Poston, the 2022 winner, placed T2nd at the Travelers Championship a week prior. He did not have a finish better than T64 in four prior John Deere Classic starts.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, Thursday and Friday currently call for just a 15-percent chance of precipitation. Saturday currently calls for a 30-percent chance of isolated thunderstorms and Sunday calls for a 40-percent chance of isolated thunderstorms that could hit the area in the late afternoon. Temperatures are set to begin at 91-degrees on Thursday and increase to 93-degrees on Friday. Temperatures will then settle to 89-degrees across both days of the weekend. Winds will be at the lowest on Thursday at just seven miles-per-hour before spiking to 13 miles-per-hour on Friday and 14 miles-per-hour on Saturday. Winds will then settle to nine miles-per-hour for Sunday.

Key Stats

• Ball Striking

• Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass (SG: PUTT Bentgrass)

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%)

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) / Hit Fairway Percentage 

• Par Four Average Scoring

• Par Five Average Scoring

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

• Proximity to the Hole from 75-150 Yards / Proximity to the Hole from 15-175 Yards

• Birdie or Better Percentage

DFS Suggestions

$10,000+

With just three golfers in this price range this week, I’m going with one of the hottest golfers on Tour, Ben Griffin ($10,400.) Dating back to the PGA Championship and across six events, including two Majors, Griffin’s worst finish was 14th. He placed 13th last week at the Rocket Classic, 14th at the Travelers Championship, tenth at the U.S. Open, second at the Memorial Tournament, won the Charles Schwab Challenge and placed eighth at the PGA Championship. He is currently 19th on Tour in GIR%, 23rd in par-five average scoring, 27th in ball striking, 32nd in SG: APP, 35th in par-four average scoring, 46th in SG: OTT, 49th in both SG: ATG and birdie or better percentage, 68th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 82nd in hit fairway percentage, 124th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards and 160th in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards. He’s played this event once prior, placing fifth here a season ago.

$9,000-$9,900

My first play in this price range is the defending champion, Davis Thompson ($9,600.) When it comes to DFS and golf betting, recency bias is a real thing so playing the defending champion isn’t always the best route with ownership percentage in mind. However, there’s a season Thompson set the tournament scoring record here a season ago. He is currently 18th on Tour in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 22nd in ball striking, 24th in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards, 25th in SG: OTT, 34th in birdie or better percentage, 35th in hit fairway percentage, 38th in par-five average scoring, 42nd in GIR%, 43rd in SG: ATG, 74th in SG: APP, 96th in par-four average scoring and 144th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass. He is a bit out of form, placing 34th last week at the Rocket Classic, 25th at the Travelers Championship and missing the cut at the U.S. Open across his last three events. Additionally, outside of winning here a season ago, he placed 31st in 2023. Also consider Michael Thorbjornsen ($9,100.) Thorbjornsen is currently third on Tour in ball striking, sixth in GIR%, ninth in birdie or better percentage, 15th in par-five average scoring, 16th in SG: OTT, 64th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 75th in par-four average scoring, 83rd in hit fairway percentage, 102nd in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 103rd in SG: APP, 138th in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards and 149th in SG: ATG. He placed fourth last week at the Rocket Classic. Prior to that he placed 41st at the PGA Championship, 54th at the Truist Championship, 33rd at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, fourth at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and second at the Corales Puntacana Championship. He was also the runner-up here a season ago and placed 17th in 2023. 

$8,000-$8,900

First up in this price range is Kevin Yu ($8,800.) Yu has played this event each of the past two seasons, placing 20th a year ago and sixth in 2023. He most recently played the Travelers Championship where he placed 25th. Prior to that he placed third at the RBC Canadian Open, missed the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge, placed 50th at the PGA Championship, fourth at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic and 29th at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Yu is currently sixth on Tour in SG: OTT, eighth in ball striking, tenth in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 13th in par-five average scoring, 14th in birdie or better percentage, 18th in GIR%, 19th in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards, 28th in SG: APP, 35th in par-five average scoring, 54th in hit fairway percentage, 136th in SG: ATG and 149th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass. The putting is always the concern for Yu but he was darn near even (slightly gaining) on the greens at the Travelers Championship and gained 1.274 strokes-putting-per-round at the RBC Canadian Open. He is also on my betting card at +4000. Also consider Thorbjorn Olesen ($8,100.) Olesen played this event a season ago where he placed 61st. He placed 41st last week at the Rocket Classic, missed the cut at the U.S. Open, placed 36th at the RBC Canadian Open, 46th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 33rd at the PGA Championship, seventh at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic and 29th at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson as of late. He is currently 12th on Tour in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 19th in ball striking, 26th in par-five average scoring, 38th in GIR%, 39th in SG: APP, 52nd in hit fairway percentage, 74th in SG: ATG, 75th in par-four average scoring, 77th in SG: OTT, 123rd in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards and 149th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards. 

$7,000-$7,900

Leading off this price range is Rico Hoey ($7,300.) Stats wise, there are very few golfers who rank higher in my model this week. He is currently first on Tour in ball striking, third in SG: OTT, fourth in GIR%, 13th in hit fairway percentage, 15th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 26th in par-five average scoring, 35th in par-four average scoring, 46th in birdie or better percentage, 51st in SG: APP, 76th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 89th in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards and 103rd in SG: ATG. He missed the cut last week at the Rocket Classic but prior to that placed 36th at the RBC Canadian Open, 66th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, missed the cut at the PGA Championship, placed seventh at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, 52nd at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, 12th at the Corales Puntacana Championship and 11th at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He also placed 26th here a season ago. Hoey is also on my betting card at +8000. Also consider Andrew Putnam ($7,600.) Putnam is currently sixth on Tour in both SG: PUTT Bentgrass and SG: ATG, seventh in hit fairway percentage, eighth in par-four average scoring, 11th in GIR%, 33rd in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards, 36th in SG: APP, 38th in par-five average scoring, 44th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 48th in ball striking, 95th in birdie or better percentage and 164th in SG: OTT. Putnam is quietly in some of the best form on Tour as well. He placed eighth last week at the Rocket Classic, sixth at the RBC Canadian Open, 44th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 61st at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic and 15th at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. His history is not great here, missing the cut in both 2024 and 2021 while placing 41st in 2022. Putnam is also on my betting card at +6500.

$6,900-

Ben Kohles ($6,500) is my first play in this final price range. He’s made the cut in three-of-his-last five events, including last week at the Rocket Classic. He also made the cut at this event a season ago. He is currently fourth on Tour in hit fairway percentage, 19th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 20th in GIR%, 21st in par-four average scoring, 31st in ball striking, 32nd in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards, 69th in SG: APP, 85th in SG: OTT, 98th in par-five average scoring, 111th in both SG: PUTT Bentgrass and birdie or better percentage and 128th in SG: ATG. Also consider Steven Fisk ($6,900.) Fisk missed the cut last week at the Rocket Classic but prior to that made four consecutive cuts. He placed 43rd at the RBC Canadian Open, 66th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 13th at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic and 24th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He is currently second on Tour in both ball striking and GIR%, 15th in par-five average scoring, 20th in SG: OTT, 43rd in SG: APP, 75th in par-four average scoring, 81st in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards, 82nd in SG: ATG, 85th in hit fairway percentage, 129th in birdie or better percentage, 162nd in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards and 168th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass. He’ll be making his debut here this week. 

Betting Card

• Kevin Yu (+4000)

• Andrew Putnam (+6500)

• Kevin Roy (+7000)

• Victor Perez (+7000)

• Rico Hoey (+8000)

Kevin Roy (+7000)

Roy is currently fourth on Tour in ball striking, fifth in par-four average scoring, 16th in GIR%, 38th in par-five average scoring, 43rd in SG: OTT, 50th in SG: APP, 56th in hit fairway percentage, 59th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 60th in birdie or better percentage, 66th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 73rd in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards and 98th in SG: ATG. He is also in great form coming into this week. He placed eighth last week at the Rocket Classic, 18th at the RBC Canadian Open, 46th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 54th at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic and 15th at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. He played this event in 2023 where he placed 31st. 

Victor Perez (+7000)

Perez is currently seventh on Tour in ball striking, eighth in GIR%, 21st in par-four average scoring, 23rd in hit fairway percentage, 31st in SG: APP, 50th in SG: OTT, 57th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 63rd in par-five average scoring, 76th in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards, 88th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 125th in birdie or better percentage and 154th in SG: ATG. Perez placed 51st last week at the Rocket Classic. Prior to that, he placed 19th at the U.S. Open and ninth at the RBC Canadian Open. He’ll be making his tournament debut this week.