top of page
  • Writer's pictureNate (@WeKnowFantasy)

Out of the Rough: Italian Open (2024)

The 81st playing of the storied Italian Open is upon as the the DP World Tour continues on with the the penultimate event of the European Swing.

This event dates back to 1925 and has been a staple of the DP World Tour’s schedule since its inception in 1972.

After spending the last three years at the 2023 Ryder Cup venue, the Marco Simone Golf & Country Club, the Italian Open has found a new home for the 2024 playing.

The nomadic event will take place this week at the Adriatic Golf Club Cervia in Ravenna for the very first time.

The Field

Not only are golfers teeing it up this week for hopes of claiming a DP World Tour victory, but two final spots in The Open Championship remain on the line.

This week’s field includes many of the typical names we’ve come accustomed to on the DP World Tour this season in Tom McKibbin, Laurie Canter, Bernd Wiesberger and Jordan Smith.

Patrick Reed of the LIV Golf Tour and former Masters Champion, will be teeing it up this week in Italy and opens as the odds on favorite to win.

Of course, there will be a strong home regime of Italians looking to win their nation’s open.

Among them are last week’s KLM Open’s winner Guido Migliozzi. Matteo Manassero, winner of this season’s Jonsson Workwear Open, will also look to lift the trophy on home soil this week.

Adrian Meronk won this event a season ago but has since moved to the LIV Golf Tour and will not be back this week to defend his title.

The Course

Little is known about the Adriatic Golf Club Cervia due to it being played for the first time on the DP World Tour.

It does play as a Par-70 at 6,965 yards.

There are 27 holes at this venue, made up of three separate nine hole courses - the Red, Blue and Yellow courses.

It is reported that this week’s tournament will use a combination of the Red and Yellow courses for this week’s championship.

The Red course is the original nine holes of the Adriatic Golf Club. It was opened in 1986 and remained the only nine holes the golf club would have for a year, until the Blue course was added.

The Red course was designed by Marco Groze and is situated inside an unspoilt incident pine wood. It will be used as the front nine this week.

The Yellow Course is the newest of the three nine-hole courses at Adriatic Golf Club. It was designed by professional golfer Baldovino Dassù and Architect Alvise Rossi Fioravanti and opened in 2004.

The Yellow Course is described to have been influenced by Scottish links.

The entirety of the Golf Club is laid in Bermuda grass and it sits very close to the Adriatic Sea.

The course itself featured tree-lined fairways with plenty of water and numerous bunkers throughout.

In all, we can expect some fantastic weather with some low scoring this week.

The Weather

As of the time of writing this, there is a zero-percent chance of precipitation across all four days this week. Winds will begin at nine miles-per-hour on Thursday and Friday before peaking at 13 miles-per-hour on Saturday and dipping to 11 miles-per-hour on Sunday. Temperatures will range between 82-to-86 degrees across all four days as well. In all, it appears to be lining up for a great week of golf.

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG: TTG)

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

  • Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: PUTT)

  • Driving Accuracy

  • Birdie or Better Percentage

  • Bogey Avoidance

  • Sand Saves Percentage

  • Scrambling

Betting Card

Tom McKibbin (+1800)

Per my stats based model, McKibbin is my overall favorite this week. He opens with the second lowest odds to just Reed this week. McKibbin is currently third on Tour in bogey avoidance, sixth in driving accuracy, 18th in scrambling, 30th in SG: APP, 35th in both birdie or better percentage and sand saves percentage, 40th in SG: TTG and 46th in SG: PUTT. In other words, he’s elite when it comes to saving strokes and offers a very well rounded game. He comes into this week fresh off a sixth place finish at last week’s KLM Open. He also made the cut at the U.S. Open and prior to that placed T8th at the European Open, T23rd at the Volvo China Open and T7th at the ISPS HANDA Championship. He also has ten top 25 finishes in his last 12 events including five top fives. His second DP World Tour victory is coming. I’m playing two units on him.

Matteo Manassero (+4000)

When it comes to these national opens, I love to have someone on my card from that respective country. I did this with Nick Taylor (+7500) at the RBC Canadian Open in 2023. It just adds to the excitement of not only golf and betting, but a feel good story if it were to happen. Manassero comes into this week fresh off a T7th ast last week’s KLM Open. He competed at the U.S. Open where he missed the cut but prior to that went T13th at the Soudal Open and T23rd at the Volvo China Open. He also placed T5th at the Hero Indian Open and won the Jonsson Workwear Open this season. Manassero is currently 11th on Tour in SG: APP, 14th in sand saves percentage, 22nd in SG: TTG, 34th in bogey avoidance, 38th in birdie or better percentage, 41st in scrambling, 74th in SG: PUTT and 97th in driving accuracy. The accuracy can be a concern but again, we’re kind of guessing here with this course. I’m playing a unit on him.

Julien Guerrier (+6000)

The Frenchman is seeking his first DP World Tour title and comes into this week on some great form. He placed T20th in his last outing at the Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed but prior to that placed T4th at the European Open. He also placed T23rd at the Volvo China Open, T8th at the Bahrain Championship and T14th at the Dubai Invitational on the season. Guerrier is currently 13th on Tour in bogey avoidance, 19th in scrambling, 29th in SG: TTG, 46th in birdie or better percentage, 56th in SG: APP, 62nd in SG: PUTT, 87th in driving accuracy and 89th in sand saves percentage. I’m playing a unit on him.

Thomas Aiken (+15000)

When a course (as far as we know) calls for accuracy off the tee with strong iron play, you know Aiken is going to pop in the model. He’s currently third on Tour in driving accuracy, fourth in SG: APP, fifth in bogey avoidance, 11th in scrambling, 14th in SG: TTG, 21st in SG: PUTT, 23rd in birdie or better percentage and 28th in sand saves. Hard to argue with the stats there. The South African has been in some great form heading into this week with four straight top 25 finishes. He placed T7th in his last outing at the KLM Open. He also went T17th at the Jonsson Workwear Open, T16th at the SDC Championship and T23rd at the Magical Kenya Open. He also placed T7th at the AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open on the season. I’m playing a unit on him as well.

90 views0 comments


bottom of page