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  • Nate (@WeKnowFantasy)

Out of the Rough Golf Betting- Genesis Open


I’m a golf fanatic. There’s no getting around that. I love playing golf, watching golf and studying golf. I’ve been involved in fantasy golf in many aspects over the past few years and I figured it’s now time to bring my insight (for whatever’s worth) to you guys too also get involved in one of the greatest sports on earth.


I’m not nearly as proficient in golf fantasy as I am in the other sports (football, basketball and baseball) but my second biggest win in DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) came at the 2019 Masters. Betting on and playing fantasy golf is stressful but oh-so rewarding at the same time.


Follow along in this series as I bring to you my favorites, golfers to avoid, betting lines and DFS lineups for tournaments throughout the year. Again I’m not in any way deeming myself a golf expert, just someone who loves the sport and loves fantasy sports all together.


We’ll kick this series off with the Genesis Open at Riviera Golf Course. The Genesis Open welcomes back some of the world’s best golfers, including world number one, Dustin Johnson. Along with Johnson, names such as Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka will tee off Thursday at Riviera as well, just to name a few.


This course favors “bombers.” As short-iron specialists can compete, the likes of Bubba Watson (a three time winner), Bryson DeChambeau (the tour’s best driver) and Rory McIlroy will have a legitimate chance to claim the title.


This course also favors lefties more than it does righties. As I previously mentioned, Watson has won at Riviera three times and the lefty himself, Phil Mickelson has claimed two titles.


In future editions of this series, I’ll list our most previous week’s results below.


Favorites

Bryson DeChambeau - World #10

As I previously mentioned, DeChambeau is the tour’s best driver, in terms of distance. In a course with tough-to-hit fairways and shorter rough, just getting the ball out there is an advantage. DeChambeau averages 329.2 yards-per-drive. It’s safe to place a bet on him to win and he is a must have in DFS play. To DeChambeau’s benefit as well, Riviera is one of the tour’s lowest driving accuracy courses. Again, due to the hard-to-fit fairways and that low rough. Taking risks and getting the ball out there further, even if it doesn’t mean hitting the fairway, is actually an advantage here.


Bubba Watson - World #50

This is a course that favors left handed golfers, such as Augusta. Watson just so happens to be a three time winner at Riviera and a two time Masters’ winner as well. Of course, the 2021 version of Watson is far from what we saw 2014, 2016 and 2018, but with the way he drives the ball and the course overall favoring left handed golfers, Watson is a must bet and a must play in DFS. He’s going to be widely owned as his DraftKings, priced only at $8,900. Don’t miss out and be at a disadvantage without Watson in your lineup.


Marc Leishman - World #33

Leishman seems to be back in form and that is not good news for the rest of the field. Adam Scott won this tournament last year. What does this have to do with Leishman? They’re both Australian. Riviera is one of the toughest putting courses on the circuit but over his last three events, Leishman has been an elite level finisher on the green. Leishman’s value is $8,600 on DraftKings, which is honestly a steal.


Avoids

Dustin Johnson - World #1

This may come to a surprise to most of you, but Dustin Johnson is my top golfer to avoid this week. This is mainly due to his price in DFS. He’s $600 more than the second highest golfer - Justin Thomas at $10,700. I know Dustin Johnson is arguably the favorite to claim the title, but at his price, he has to flat out win for you to cash out. I could be shooting myself in the foot with this claim but I’m okay with that. Johnson could easily win this event, just as he did in his last outing in the Saudi Invitational. I’d rather spread the wealth in DFS than put all my eggs in one basket.


Justin Thomas - World #3

Two of the World’s top three golfers in my avoid list? What? Justin Thomas is a phenomenal golfer, but it’s his short game that really gets him going. As previously mentioned, this course best suites long-drivers and Thomas averages just over 300 yards-per-drive. Thomas is great on the green as well with putting, but again, like Johnson, his price is very high on DraftKings. With a low fairway hit percentage and being a short driver to begin with, Thomas will have an uphill battle at every hole.


Jordan Spieth - World #62

This is simple, don’t take the bait. How is the World’s #62 golfer worth $9,200 on DraftKings? Spieth hasn’t won an event since 2017 and he fell short yet again last week at Pebble Beach. This is more of a warning. Don’t bite into the name that is Jordan Spieth and the notoriety that comes with it. Let the others in your DFS tournament bite. Spend your money elsewhere and laugh all the way to the bank.


DFS Lineup

I do all of my DFS on DraftKings so that’s where I’ll display my lineups. They should reflect somewhat close to FanDuel values as well.


  • Bryson DeChambeau ($10,100)

  • Bubba Watson ($8,900)

  • Marc Leishman ($8,600)

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,600)

  • Gary Woodland ($7,600)

  • Talor Gooch ($7,200)


When it comes to my DFS lineups, I don’t like to frontload my lineup and hope for the best out of the cheap players I can scrounge up. I like to get “my guys” up top and find mid-value guys to fill out the rest.


I have already talked about DeChambeau, Watson and Leishman who are my three most expensive players.


Fitzpatrick is currently the World’s #20 golfer and has not played state-side in 2021 and will make his debut for the year this week. Most of the international top-ranked players are expected to hit state-side next week at the RSM Classic. Fitzpatrick finished his 2020 campaign with a win at the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. Expect the British product to be in contention through Sunday.


Gary Woodland is my shot-in-the-dark. He’s an inconsistent golfer who has only made the cut in three of his last eight events. However, his game suits this course rather well. His price is a little higher ($7,600) than I would like to see, but this will deter players from choosing him for their lineups. Woodland torches the ball off the tee as he is one of the top drivers on the tour. We’ll hope that the distance off the tee sets him up well to compete through the weekend.


Gooch is a golfer I’m going to be very invested in going into Thursday. He is very good on long par-fours which the Riviera features many. Also, he seems to be on top of his game when it comes to playing in California. The majority of his career top finishes have come in the state of California.


Betting Lines

Bryson DeChambeau to win (+1700)

As you can tell by this point, I’m all over DeChambeau this week. He has a great chance of winning this event and gives you some room to make some money. A mere $10 met on DeChambeau to win would net you $170. I’ve given enough reasons why to believe in this guy this week, now throw a few bucks on him to win.


Bubba Watson to win (+5000)

This line is even juicier than the DeChambeau line. Watson has three wins here, so why couldn’t he get a fourth? We have talked extensively about this course favoring left handed golfers and drivers who can smash the ball. Bubba does both. A $10 bet would earn you $500 if Watson is to win his fourth title.


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