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Out of the Rough: Farmers Insurance Open (2025)

Writer's picture: Nate (@WeKnowFantasy)Nate (@WeKnowFantasy)

The easy going golf courses that kick-started the 2025 PGA Tour season are behind us as the Tour now turns its attention to The Farmers Insurance Open.


With a stretch of birdie-fests to begin the year, the opposite is now set to take center-stage as one of the most storied courses of the PGA Tour in Torrey Pines is set to host another installment of The Farmers Insurance Open. 


The Farmers Insurance Open returns for another installment in San Diego as this event, although under various names, has been a part of the PGA Tour schedule since 1952.


Like what we saw last week, it’s another multi-venue affair, although we’ll see just two courses this week opposed to three.


Both courses, the North and South courses at Torrey Pines, will be played alternately across Wednesday and Thursday before the post 36-hole cut. The top 65-plus ties who make the cut will play the final two rounds at the South Course.


As has become the tradition, with the NFL’s Championship Sunday taking place this week, this week’s golf tournament begins on Wednesday and will conclude on Saturday. This way, the PGA Tour isn’t competing for viewership with the NFL on Sunday.


The Field

Being played at one of the most historic venues in the world of golf, this event annually draws a top-tier field.


This week’s tournament is headlined by World No. 4 Collin Morikawa, who we haven’t seen since The Sentry Tournament of Champions.


He’ll be joined by Hideki Matsuyama, the winner of The Sentry Tournament of Champions, doing so by recording the lowest 72-hole score in PGA Tour history.


Other notable attendees include Ludvig Aberg, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Sahith Theegala and Will Zalatoris.


Matthieu Pavon comes in as the defending champion, winning for the first time on the PGA Tour just four-tournaments deep of receiving his PGA Tour card via the DP World Tour Race to Dubai top ten promotions.


Other former winners of this event teeing it up this week include Homa (2023,) Luke List (2022,) Justin Rose (2019,) Jason Day (2015 & 2018) and Brandt Snedeker (2012 & 2016.)


Course and tournament history is important here at this event, with a multitude of repeat champions, including Tiger Woods who won this event seven times, Phil Mickelson three times and a slew of two time winners as listed above.


The Course(s)

The South Course

The South Course annually plays as one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour, playing as a par 72 at roughly 7,785 yards.


Being one of the most storied championship golf courses in the United States, Torrey Pines South offers a major-like feel to it which will be a welcome sight after seeing the birdie-fests to kick off this 2025 PGA Tour Season.


Off-the-tee, driving distance will of course be a factor with the length this course offers. Bombers will be encouraged to swing away to set up their second shots routinely across all four rounds.


However, the fairways here at the South Course are narrow and with the combination of golfers opting for driver due to its length, The South Course offers one of the highest missed fairway percentages on Tour.


Due to the course’s length, approach shots from 200-plus yards will be of the norm this week.


The greens featured this week are Pao greens. They’re both firm and small and due to this, the South Course also features one of the lowest greens in regulation percentages of the PGA Tour as well. This is also attributed to the long approach shots golfers will be taking into the greens.


Golfers will be forced to work around-the-greens often due to this and will need to bring their A-game in the scrambling department if they hope to claim victory.


These pao greens are also some of the most difficult greens to putt on each season as it is a grass type not often seen on Tour.


The South Course features a multitude of par fours that play over 450-yards. Golfers will need to take advantage of the par-fours this week however and get comfortable grinding out the par threes and par fives.


The North Course

The North Course is considerably easier than the South Course here at Torrey Pines.


It also plays as a par-72 but at just 7,258 yards.


It’ll be crucial that golfers take advantage of their one round at the North Course if they hope to win this week.


Historically speaking, failing to shoot in the 60’s on the North Course will essentially eliminate any golfer from the tournament. 


Since 2000, the winning score has reached -20 or better just once (Justin Rose in 2019) at this event. The average winning score has been -13.76 dating back to 2000. Pavon won last year at -13.


The Weather

As of the time of writing this, we could see some precipitation on Saturday as forecasts are calling for a 35-percent chance. Other than that, the rest of the week calls for either a zero-percent or five-percent chance of precipitation. Temperatures will begin at 67-degrees on Wednesday before peaking at 73-degrees on Thursday and returning to 67-degrees on Friday before settling at 61-degrees for Saturday. Winds will range between four-and-five miles-per-hour for Wednesday through Friday before reaching 13 miles-per-hour for Saturday. If the forecasts hold true, weather could play its hand in determining a winner on Saturday.


Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

  • Average Driving Distance

  • Proximity to the Hole from 200-plus Yards

  • Hit Fairway Percentage

  • Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%)

  • Scrambling

  • Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: PUTT)

  • Par Four Scoring Average

  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

  • Par Five Scoring Average


Betting Card

$10,000+

I’m going to the top of the board with my first suggestion in Ludvig Aberg ($10,800.) Aberg is currently 14th on Tour in par four average scoring, 21st in both SG: APP and scrambling, 22nd in average driving distance, 31st in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 45th in par five average scoring, 67th in SG: PUTT, 73rd in GIR%, 80th in hit fairway percentage and 105th in SG: ATG. Aberg has played this event just once before, placing ninth a season ago. He’s played just one event so far this season, placing T5th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. In this field, I feel like $10,800 is a steal for Aberg and allows for plenty of money to build the rest of your lineup with much sacrifice. Ownership could become an issue with him, but oftentimes, people get scared off the most expensive player. Either way, he’s the most expensive guy for a reason. 


$9,000-$9,900

First up in this price range we have Keegan Bradley ($9,900.) The United States Ryder Cup Team Captain has had a great start to his 2025 season. In the two tournaments he’s played, he placed T15th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions and T6th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s played this event four-of-the-last-five seasons, placing 43rd a season ago, second in 2023, 65th in 2021 and 16th in 2020. He is currently tenth on Tour in par four average scoring, 17th in par five average scoring, 18th in GIR%, 44th in scrambling, 47th in SG: APP, 49th in hit fairway percentage, 50th in SG: PUTT, 66th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 74th in SG: ATG and 97th in average driving distance. He is also on my betting card at +2400. Also consider Max Greyserman ($9,700.) Greyserman is quickly becoming a favorite of everyone across all aspects of golf betting and DFS. That is for good reason as he placed T24th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions and T7th at The American Express to start the season. He’s played this event just once prior, missing the cut a season ago. He is currently tenth on Tour in par four average scoring, 13th in both SG: APP and GIR%, 33rd in par five average scoring, 58th in SG: PUTT, 67th in SG: ATG, 117th in proximity to the hole 200-plus yards, 122nd in both average driving distance and scrambling and 161st in hit fairway percentage. He’ll need to dial it back to find some fairways this week but the rest of his game is ideal for this golf course.


$8,000-$8,900

Leading off this price range is Taylor Pendrith ($8,800.) Pendrith was my first click on the betting card this week. He has great course history, playing each of the last-three-seasons. He placed ninth a season ago, 60th in 2023 and 16th in 2022. In his two starts already this season, he placed T13th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions and T45th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Pendrith is currently sixth on Tour in GIR%, tenth in par five average scoring, 37th in hit fairway percentage, 46th in par four average scoring, 64th in average driving distance, 67th in SG: APP, 84th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 92nd in SG: ATG, 107th in SG: PUTT and 168th in scrambling. That putting number doesn’t suggest how good of a putter Pendrith actually is, as he finished last season fifth on Tour in SG: PUTT across the entire season. He was also 104th in scrambling a season ago. Pendrith is also on my betting card at +3500. Also consider Harry Hall ($8,000.) Hall’s track record at this event isn’t ideal. He’s played it three times prior (2020, 2023 and 2024,) missing the cut each time. However, he’s been one of the Tour’s best to start this season. He placed T8th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions, T10th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and T21st at The American Express. Hall is currently fourth on Tour in par four average scoring, 19th in SG: PUTT, 31st in SG: ATG, 38th in scrambling, 56th in SG: APP, 64th in GIR%, 69th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 85th in par five average scoring, 103rd in average driving distance and 156th in hit fairway percentage. Much like Greyserman, Hall will have to dial it down a bit to find some more fairways this week but the rest of his game lines up well to go along with his great form to start the season as well.


$7,000-$7,900

I love this price range this week. There’s a lot of value to be had. With that being said, my first play is Alex Smalley ($7,300.) Smalley has been great to start his 2025 PGA Tour campaign. He placed T16th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 11th at The American Express. He has played this event each of the last three seasons, highlighted by a 37th place finish in 2023. Smalley is currently tenth on Tour in par five average scoring, 16th in SG: ATG, 31st in SG: APP, 38th in par four average scoring, 41st in average driving distance, 46th in both scrambling and SG: PUTT, 55th in hit fairway percentage, 56th in GIR% and 115th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards. Smalley is also on my betting card at +10000. Also consider Mark Hubbard ($7,800.) Hubbard is currently ninth ou Tour in SG: APP, 12th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 38th in par four average scoring, 46th in hit fairway percentage, 55th in par five average scoring, 56th in GIR%, 66th in scrambling, 71st in SG: PUTT, 86th in average driving distance and 100th in SG: ATG. He also placed 20th here a season ago. In his two starts this season he has placed T21st at the Sony Open in Hawaii and T12th at last week’s The American Express. Hubbard is also on my betting card at +6000.


$6,900-

In this first price range, we’ll start with Trey Mullinax ($6,600.) Mullinax is currently second on Tour in SG: ATG, sixth in SG: PUTT, tenth in par four average scoring, 16th in SG: APP, 21st in average driving distance, 33rd in scrambling, 45th in GIR%, 114th in hit fairway percentage, 133rd in par five average scoring and 136th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards. He placed T18th last week at The American Express. He last played this event in 2023 where he placed T31st. He also made the cut here in 2020. Also consider Vincent Norrman ($6,800.) Norrman is currently 25th on Tour in scrambling, 28th in SG: APP, 29th in SG: PUTT, 33rd in par four average scoring, 38th in GIR%, 45th in average driving distance, 63rd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 108th in hit fairway percentage, 128th in par five average scoring and 147th in SG: ATG. Norrman placed T28th last week at The American Express and T37th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s also played this event twice before, making the cut in those two appearances (2023 & 2024,) highlighted by a 44th place finish in 2023. 


Betting Card

  • Keegan Bradley (+2400)

  • Taylor Pendrith (+3500)

  • Mark Hubbard (+6000)

  • Alex Smalley (+10000)

  • Taylor Montgomery (+100000)


Taylor Montgomery (+100000)

Despite what the stats tell us about Montgomery this week, he has some great course history at this event. He placed 13th here a season ago, 31st in 2023 and 11th in 2022. His start to the season hasn’t been ideal however, placing T65th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and missing the cut last week at The American Express. He is currently 95th on Tour in SG: APP, 102nd in average driving distance, 104th in par five average scoring, 108th in SG: PUTT, 114th in scrambling, 121st in par four average scoring, 131st in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 133rd in SG: ATG, 135th in GIR% and 176th in hit fairway percentage. This is more of a heat-check play on his recent form at this event and course.

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