top of page
Search
  • Writer's pictureNate (@WeKnowFantasy)

Out of the Rough: Butterfield Bermuda Championship (2023)


We’re onto the penultimate stop of the PGA Tour’s Fall Swing with a stop in Southampton, Bermuda for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.


This is the sixth-of-seven stops on the Fall Swing, as we are fresh off Erik van Rooyen’s improbable triumph as he eagled hole 18 at last week’s World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico to win for the second time on Tour.


This event was first played in 2019 and has been held each year at Port Royal Golf Course where this 2023 installment too will take place.


This is one of the most weather impacted events on the entire PGA Tour rotation. The course can play completely differently across all four days depending on what Mother Nature has in store.


Of course, there is still plenty to play for as this event plays vitale for those on the top-125 bubble for PGA Tour exemption come the turn of the year.


The Field

There’s no sugar coating it, this is the worst field of any of the Fall Swing events that we have seen thus far.


As previously mentioned however, this event plays vital for those players seeking a top-60 FedEx Cup ranking to qualify for signature events in 2024 and those seeking top-125 status for exemption.


This week is headlined by Adam Scott and Lucas Glover who are arguably the two biggest names teeing it up this week in Bermuda.


They’ll be joined by the likes of Brendon Todd, Alex Noren, Lucas Herbert, Alex Smalley, Luke List, Thomas Detry and Mark Hubbard who represent the nine golfers within the top-100 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) playing this week.


Believe it not, this is a much stronger field than what we saw a season ago due to the added importance of these Fall Swing events.


Seamus Power is the defending champion of this event but will not be back this year to defend his title.


Although Power will not be playing this week, all other former winners of this event (Herbert, Todd and Brian Gay) will be back looking for a second Butterfield Bermuda Championship title.


It’s also worth noting that Bermuda-based golf prodigy Oliver Betschart, who at just 15-years-old, will be avoiding his high school responsibilities to play in a PGA Tour event this week.


The Course

Port Royal Golf Course is a Par-71 that plays at just 6,828 yards. This makes it the shortest Par-71 on the PGA Tour schedule and the second shortest course overall to just TPC River Highlands.


It is a Robert Trent Jones design and is a public course in Southampton, Bermuda.


Overall, this course is tree-lined with water in play on several holes. It too features a lot of bunkers and is made for low scoring.


Playing at such a short distance, fairway finders have had their turns at success here over the years but this course too in turn plays to the likes of long-bombers off the tee if weather is to become a factor.


Port Royal Golf Course is rather forgiving off-the-tee as long as the weather remains at bay.


Being a coast-lined venue, intermittent wind changes play a big factor on every shot and the regular elevation changes this course features offers a challenge to players on their approaches.


Golfers who are talented ball strikers will see an advantage this week, especially those who are experienced in playing approach shots in windy conditions.


The greens, of course, are Bermuda and this event has been won and then in turn, lost on these greens. Golfers who are good on Bermuda greens will see an advantage this week.


Port Royal Golf Course consists of three par-fives, 11 par-fours and four par-threes.


Among the 11 par-fours featured this week, none of them measure over 460 yards. Therefore, short iron and wedge-play will be important for any hopeful winner.


As I previously mentioned countless times already, the weather is the biggest line of defense this course has to offer.


In all, golfers who are strong on their approach, especially in windy conditions as well as those able to navigate steep elevation changes will see an advantage overall this week.


The Weather

I’ve continued to harp on the weather through the entirety of this article and that is because it is oftentimes some of the worst conditions golfers will see throughout the PGA Tour schedule. As of the time of writing this, the weather will seem to cooperate this week, outside of increased winds across the weekend. Currently Sunday holds the strongest chance for precipitation at just 20-percent as both Friday and Saturday hold a ten-percent chance and Thursday is set at a zero-percent chance. Temperatures will range from 72-degrees to 75-degrees across all four days. Winds will be at the lowest on Thursday with a current projection of just six miles-per-hour before increasing to 11 miles-per-hour on Friday. The winds then really become a factor on the weekend as they are set for 14 miles-per-hour on Saturday and 17 miles-per-hour on Sunday. If the winds are the only thing golfers will have to worry about this week, I believe they’ll be happy.


Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) / Driving Accuracy

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

  • Ball Striking

  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

  • Par Three Average Scoring

  • Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)

  • Birdie or Better Percentage

  • Proximity to the Hole from less than 125-yards

  • Sand Saves Percentage

  • Scrambling


DFS Suggestions

$10,000+

With just four golfers in this price range, I will be suggesting just one golfer here and two in the other price ranges. With that being said, my play in this price range is the 2019 winner, Brendon Todd ($10,300.) Todd is currently third on the PGA Tour in SG: ATG, seventh in scrambling, 12th in diving accuracy, 13th in sand saves percentage, 16th in proximity to the hole from less than 125-yards, 24th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 46th in par-three average scoring, 62nd in birdie or better percentage and 67th in SG: APP. His downfalls this week come with a 127th placement in ball striking and 165th in SG: OTT. Todd is very short off the tee which is affecting both of those scores. I’m not too concerned as he is elite with the short game, a very strong putter and a quality approach player. Todd has played just once on the Fall Swing where he placed T6th at the Fortinet Championship. I’m also playing two units on him at +1600 to win this week.


$9,000-$9,900

Leading off this price range I have Lucas Glover ($9,500.) It’s odd to see someone like Glover this low in this quality of field, especially after what he did at the end of last season where he won the Wyndham Championship and FedEx St. Jude Classic is back-to-back weeks. However, in his one Fall Swing appearance on the season, he placed T59th at last week’s World Wide Technology Championship. Either way, his game lines up perfectly for this week. He is currently sixth on Tour in driving accuracy, 12th in ball striking, 15th in SG: APP, 16th in par three average scoring, 19th in proximity to the hole from less than 125-yards, 32nd in scrambling, 40th in sand saves percentage and 43rd in both SG: OTT and birdie or better percentage. His downfalls come in the form of a 131st placement in SG: ATG and 149th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Of course, his putting stats don’t tell the full story as we know what he did down the stretch of last season where he switched putting coaches and moved to the ‘belly’ putter and in turn, turned his putter into a weapon. I’m playing two units on him at +2200 to win this week. Also consider Doug Ghim ($9,000.) Ghim rebounded following two consecutive missed cuts by going T15th at last week’s World Wide Technology Championship. He also placed T17th earlier in the Fall Swing at the Fortinet Championship. Ghim is also 117th in the current FedEx Standings so a strong performance this week will all but secure his card for the 2024 PGA Tour season. Ghim is also fifth on the entire Tour in ball striking, 11th in driving accuracy, 29th in par three average scoring, 35th in scrambling, 50th in SG: OTT, 69th in SG: APP, 76th in SG: ATG, 86th in birdie or better percentage and 115th in proximity to the hole from less than 125-yards. Now his downfalls do come in the form of a 130th placement in sand saves percentage and more notably, 154th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. I’m playing a unit on him at +3000.


$8,000-$8,900

This price range is often one I’m fine with ignoring but in this week’s depleted field, I like the value some of the golfers here can offer. My first suggestion is Dylan Wu ($8,200.) Wu is currently 38th on Tour in sand saves percentage, 45th in ball striking, 50th in both SG: APP and birdie or better percentage, 59th in par three average scoring, 67th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 88th in proximity to the hole from less than 125-yards, 99th in both SG: OTT and scrambling and 108th in SG: ATG. In this entire field, Wu is the only golfer to rank average or above average in each of the 11 statistical categories I took into consideration this week. In other words, he’s arguably the most well rounded golfer in this entire field. Now, Wu hasn’t been in great form as of late, placing T59th at the ZOZO Championship and missing the two cuts prior, but that helps offer the discounted value we’re getting him at this week. I’m playing a unit on him at +4500. Also consider Alex Smalley ($8,900.) Smalley is currently 31st on Tour in SG: APP, 37th in ball striking, 47th in SG: OTT, 54th in sand saves percentage, 66th in scrambling, 98th in SG: ATG, 101st in driving accuracy, 103rd in proximity to the hole from less than 125-yards, 109th in par three average scoring, 115th in birdie or better percentage and 123rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Not to Wu’s exact ability, but Smalley is just off the pace of being average or above average in each of the 11 statistical categories I took into consideration this week. Not bad for someone in this price range. Smalley has made the cut in both of the Fall Swing events he’s played in this season (Sanderson Farms Championship and Shriners Children’s Open.) That two-run of events was capped by a T16th at the Sanderson Farms.


$7,000-$7,900

There are some inevitable things in life. Death, taxes and my weekly belief that Kevin Yu ($7,800) can win a PGA Tour event. And with that, Yu is my first play in this price range. Yu has missed the cut in four-of-five Fall Swing events he’s played. So why would I continue to believe he has what it takes to win? Easy. He’s currently second on the entire PGA Tour in ball striking, fourth in SG: OTT, 13th in birdie or better percentage, 59th in par three average scoring, 64th in SG: APP, 70th in both driving accuracy and SG: PUTT Bermuda, 81st in proximity to the hole from less than 125-yards and 106th in SG: ATG. His downfalls come with a 176th placement in scrambling and 178th in sand saves percentage. As a pure ball striker who has gained 5.405 on the greens across 16 scorable rounds on Bermuda grass, I’m once again back on the Yu train. I’m playing a unit on him at +5500. Also consider Ryan Moore ($7,400.) Moore has made the cut in three-of-four events in the Fall Swing. His Fall Swing has been highlighted by a T13th at the Shriners Children’s Open. He also placed T38th last week at the World Wide Technology Championship. Moore is currently 4th on Tour in driving accuracy, 21st in SG: APP, 25th in proximity to the hole from less than 125-yards, 40th in scrambling, 42nd in ball striking, 48th in sand saves percentage, 78th in par three average scoring, 108th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 128th in birdie or better percentage and 129th in SG: OTT. His downfall this week comes in the form of a 162nd placement in SG: ATG. I don’t believe Moore can win this week but I like his chances of making the cut and flirting with a top-20.


$6,900-

I’m not sure how to feel about these suggestions in this price range in such a weak field, but here we go. My first suggestion is someone I’m actually rather high on in Satoshi Kodaira ($6,800.) Kodaira is currently second on the entire Tour in driving accuracy, 22nd in scrambling, 37th in sand saves percentage, 47th in SG: ATG, 51st in birdie or better percentage, 56th in proximity to the hole from less than 125-yards, 60th in ball striking, 80th in SG: APP, 109th in par three average scoring and 118th in SG: OTT. His downfall this week comes on the greens as he currently ranks 147th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Not a bad resume for someone in this price range. Kodaira has made the cut in two-of-four Fall Swing events he has played in this season. He placed T12th at the ZOZO Championship and T30th at the Fortinet Championship. I’m so high on Kodaira I’m playing a unit on him at +25000. Also consider Chris Stroud ($6,600.) Stroud is currently 16th on Tour in par three average scoring, 33rd in scrambling, 34th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 59th in sand saves percentage, 65th in SG: APP, 72nd in proximity to the hole from less than 125-yards and 92nd in driving accuracy. His downfalls come in the form of a 133rd placement in SG: ATG, 136th in ball striking, 145th in birdie or better percentage and 174th in SG: OTT. Stroud made the cut in his last outing at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He’s not perfect but no one in this price range is. You can do a lot worse than Stroud this week.


Betting Card

  • Brendon Todd (+1800) - 2u

  • Lucas Glover (+2200) - 2u

  • Doug Ghim (+3000) - 1u

  • Dylan Wu (+4500) - 1u

  • Kevin Yu (+5500) - 1u

  • Satoshi Kodaira (+25000) - 1u

334 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Comments


bottom of page