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Writer's pictureNate (@WeKnowFantasy)

Out of the Rough: BMW PGA Championship (2024)


The third Rolex Series event of the DP World Tour season is upon us as the Tour takes to Wentworth for the BMW PGA Championship.


This event joins the likes of the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, Genesis Scottish Open, Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and DP World Tour Championship to serve as stops of the Rolex Series.


This event was originally known as the British PGA Championship and was first staged in 1955. Since the inception of the DP World Tour in 1972, the BMW PGA Championship has been a part of it.


This tournament was once held annually in May but when the US PGA Championship was moved to May in 2019, the DP World Tour made the decision to move the BMW PGA Championship to its fall slot.


The Field

With the 2024 PGA Tour season behind us, more-and-more PGA Tour regulars are taking to the DP World Tour.


This week’s field is once again headlined by Rory McIlroy who was chased down on home soil a week ago by Rasmus Hojgaard at the Amgen Irish Open.


McIlroy will be joined by the likes of Tommy Fleetwood and Adam Scott who help headline the field.


Other PGA Tour regulars teeing it up this week include Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Byeong Hun-An, Alex Noren, Aaron Rai, Robert MacIntyre, Matt Fitzpatrick, Si Woo Kim, Matt Wallace, Justin Rose, Sepp Straka and Victor Perez.


Last week’s winner, Rasmus Hojgaard, headlines the field of DP World Tour regulars which includes Matteo Manassero, Thriston Lawrence, Sebastian Soderberg, Niklas Norgaard, Laurie Canter, Alex Fitzpatrick and Jordan Smith.


New Zealand’s Ryan Fox comes in as the defending champion, as he held off Aaron Rai and Tyrrell Hatton by a stroke a season ago.


Joining Fox as former winners of this event and teeing it up this week are Lowry (2022,) Horschel (2021,) Danny Willett (2019,) Francesco Molinari (2018,) Hun-An (2015,) McIlroy (2014) and Luke Donald (2012 and 2011.)


The Course

The West Course at Wentworth in Surrey, England plays as a Par 72 at 7,267 yards


It was designed by Harry Colt and opened in 1926. The course has since undergone a series of alterations. More recently, alterations have been under the guidance of Ernie Els.


Between 2009 and 2010, the greens were completely remodeled and the par five finishing hole was drastically changed.


The old 18th hole was once a sure-fire birdie and a great-eagle opportunity but with the addition of a large stream snaking its way in front of the green, it has now been changed to a stunning risk/reward finishing hole.


Wentworth is a tight, flat and tree-lined heathland designed course. The greens are tricky-to-read since the 2017 renewal and the renovations that took place prior.


The greens were once a bentgrass/poa annua blend but have since been replaced to a pure bentgrass, creating a faster and trickier putting surface. A brand-new sub-air system was also put into place to help keep the greens fast and dry.


Along with the changes to the greens, the bunkering throughout the course was changed in an attempt to restore the course closer to Colt’s original design. It was once believed that some of the bunkers throughout the years of renovations became too deep. 


Off the tee metrics aren’t the most worrisome this week outside of driving distance in order to set up better approach shots.


Although I will be taking putting into account for my model, we’ve seen plenty of victories with a mid-tier putter in hand.


In all, Wentworth is a tree-lined parkland design that uses water as its main line of defense. 


The Weather

As of the time of writing this, just Sunday holds a more than 20-percent chance of precipitation, although it’s set at a 60-percent chance. Winds will begin at 12 miles-per-hour on both Thursday and Friday before dropping to eight miles-per-hour on Saturday and five miles-per-hour on Sunday. Temperatures will begin at 76-degrees on Thursday before gradually falling to 67-degrees on Sunday. In all, it doesn’t appear to be that bad weather wise for what we are used to expecting out of United Kingdom summer golf.


Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG: TTG)

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

  • Greens in Regulation (GIR%)

  • Scrambling

  • Average Driving Distance

  • Bogey Avoidance

  • Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: PUTT)


Betting Card

Adam Scott (+1300)

Adam Scott has been one of the hottest golfers on the PGA Tour to finish the season. He finished his 2024 campaign T4th at the TOUR Championship, T2nd at the BMW Championship, T18th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, T10th at The Open Championship and solo second at the Genesis Scottish Open. He also finished the season 26th in SG: PUTT, 34th in SG: TTG, 36th in average driving distance, 41st in scrambling, 43rd in bogey avoidance, 81st in GIR% and 85th in SG: APP. Scott also placed T7th here last year, T42nd in 2022 and T14th in 2021. Three-of-the-last-four winners of this event have been PGA Tour regulars as well. Scott fits this course statistically and is in some insane form. 


Jordan Smith (+7500)

Once again, I love when the PGA Tour regulars come over to the DP World Tour because we get insane value on the DP World Tour guys. That’s the case this week with Smith. Smith is currently first on the DP World Tour in GIR%, sixth in bogey avoidance, 13th in SG: TTG, 30th in SG: APP, 39th in scrambling, 85th in average driving distance and 106th in SG: PUTT. In his last three outings he has gone T7th at the Amgen Irish Open and T12th at both the Omega European Masters and Betfred British Masters. His course form is not ideal at Wentworth, but he did make the cut here last year.


Tom McKibbin (+8000)

Just on value alone, this can’t be ignored. McKibbin is one of the premier names on the DP World Tour. Now, he’s had a mixed bag of results recently, missing the cut in three-of-his-last-six events but also placed T30th last week at the Amgen Irish Open, T10th at the Danish Golf Championship, second at the Italian Open and sixth at the KLM Open. He is currently eighth on Tour in bogey avoidance, 15th in GIR%, 37th in scrambling, 45th in SG: TTG, 50th in SG: APP, 51st in average driving distance and 65th in SG: PUTT. McKibbin also made the cut here last year in his debut.


Jesper Svensson (+11000)

Svensson will be making his debut here this week at Wentworth but he does match up well statistically. Svensson is currently sixth on Tour in average driving distance, 36th in scrambling, 43rd in SG: TTG, 44th in bogey avoidance, 51st in SG: PUTT, 53rd in GIR% and 83rd in SG: APP. Although Svensson missed the cut in his last outing at the Omega European Masters, he placed fifth at the Betfred British Masters and second at the D+D Real Czech Masters in his two starts prior. A big number for a guy who has been in great form as of late and matches up well statistically.


Rikuya Hoshino (+15000)

Hoshino won early this season at the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters but has been a bit out of form since. He’s returned to form as of late, playing T30th last week at the Amgen Irish Open and T8th at the Omega European Masters. He also recently placed T6th at the BMW International Open and T10th at the KLM Open. He is currently 11th on Tour in SG: APP, 17th in SG: TTG, 38th in scrambling, 55th in average driving distance, 70th in bogey avoidance, 73rd in GIR% and 144th in SG: PUTT. Hoshino also placed T25th here a season ago in his debut.

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