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  • Writer's pictureNate (@WeKnowFantasy)

Out of the Rough: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (2023)


The Tour now turns its attention to the infamous Pebble Beach for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am for a third consecutive tournament using multiple courses.


This is the final multi-course event for the season as golfers this week will traverse Pebble Beach, Monterey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill. Golfers will play each of the three courses from Thursday through Saturday.


The cut follows the completion of the third round on Saturday as the top 60 plus ties advance to play Pebble Beach a second time on Sunday. The same format we saw two weeks back for The American Express.


This of course throws a wrench into our module with the variation between the three courses. We will add an emphasis to Pebble Beach as that course is played twice.


This event was once a top heavy event that drew big names but over the years has lost some of its notoriety. Part of that has to do with the The Saudi International playing on the same week.


Matt Fitzpatrick (10th,) Viktor Hovland (11th) and Jordan Spieth (16th) are the top ranked golfers in attendance this week. Other notable names include Maverick McNealy, Tom Hoge and Seamus Power to round out the “second tier” of golfers.


Hoge is the defending champion of the event as he will look to defend his title this week. Other former winners of the event in attendance this week include Nick Taylor, Ted Potter Jr., Spieth, Vaughn Taylor, Jimmy Walker and D.A. Points.


Pebble Beach Golf Links features some of the smallest greens on Tour with an average area of 3,500 square feet. Therefore, Pebble Beach annually has one of the lowest greens in regulation percentage on Tour. With small greens that are hard to hit, golfers will oftentimes be chipping on from around the green.


The greens, like Torrey Pines, are Poa Grass. With that, they’ll play on the slower side than the likes of Bermuda or Bentgrass.


Iron play will be of the utmost importance this week due to the angular hole layout, forcing golfers to lay up off the tee. Also due to this, Pebble Beach bolsters the shortest average driving distance on Tour.


Hitting the fairway at Pebble too is important with the difficulty of the greens and the thicker rough, taking approach shots from the fairway is a must.


It’s actually a minor miracle that Monterey Peninsula will be playable this week as it underwent critical flooding in early January. These floods essentially took out the neighboring Dunes Course. Due to the excess moisture, this course will play soft.


Monterey Peninsula is the easiest of the three courses if conditions are right however.


It comes in at 6,958 yards as a par 71 with five par threes, four par fives and nine par fours. The par fives here are very gettable and will offer many birdie and eagle opportunities. Golfers must take advantage of this course if they want to compete on Sunday.


Spyglass Hill is arguably the toughest of the three courses. Five holes are exposed to the coast but the other 13 are tree lined to limit the winds.


As for weather this week, highs are set for the high-50s to low 60s. There is a 40-percent chance of precipitation on Friday and a 60-percent chance on Sunday. Coastal winds will certainly be a factor this week.


Important statistics to consider this week include:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

  • Good Drives Percentage

  • Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%)

  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

  • Average Par Five Scoring

  • Proximity to the Hole from 100-125 Yards

  • Par 4 Performance

  • Strokes Gained: Scrambling


$10,000

Defending Champion Tom Hoge ($10,000) leads off this price range. Of course there is course history here as Hoge used this tournament for his first Tour victory a year ago. Hoge has played in ten tournaments on the season and three in the calendar year. His highlight was a T3rd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in early January. He also went T4th at the Shriners Children’s Open and T9th at the Zozo Championship earlier in the season. He has two top fives, three top tens and five top 15s. We already mentioned that strong iron play will be the biggest factor this week and that is what Hoge is best at. He’s currently first on Tour in SG: APP. He’s also second in par four performance, third in proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards, 12th in good drive percentage, 16th in GIR%, 45th in average par five scoring and 63rd in SG: SCR. He is near the bottom of Tour in SG: ATG. He’ll need some things to fall in his favor in that aspect but being a past winner at the event, he has a proven track record. Also consider Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,100.) We’ve seen Fitzpatrick just three times this season and once in the calendar year. He went T7th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and T13th at the CJ Cup in South Carolina. When it comes to good drives and par five scoring, there is no one better on tour. For a course crucial in hitting the fairways and with par fives being of the utmost importance, Fitzpatrick has a leg up on the field. He’s also seventh on tour in greens in regulation percentage, 24th in SG: SCR, 73rd in SG: ATG, 74th in par four performance, 73rd in SG: ATG and 138th in SG: APP. We haven’t seen much of Fitzpatrick this year, but as a former major winner, he has the ability to shoot low anytime he’s on the course. Fitzpatrick is also great when it comes to golfing in the wind. With the coastal winds this week, he too has an advantage.


$9,000-$9,900

Per the module our favorite this week is actually Joel Dahmen ($9,000.) This isn’t the first time he’s scored really high in our module this season but the first we’ll get to play him as last time he withdrew from The American Express. He’s currently top 70 in every statistical category we’re taking into consideration this week. He’s ninth in SG: SCR, 20th in par four performance, 22nd in good drive percentage, 28th in both SG: APP and greens in regulation percentage, 33rd in SG: ATG, 61st in average par five scoring and 70th in proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards. We haven’t seen Dahmen since the turn of the calendar year but he had a fantastic start to the scoring season. He had two top fives, three top tens, four top 15s and five top 20s in six events, highlighted by a T3rd at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. He’s a very well rounded golfer who has shown a great stretch of form already this season. Also consider Matt Kuchar ($9,400.) Kuchar too is above average in each of the statistical categories we’re taking into consideration this week. He’s also currently tops on tour in SG: SCR. He’s best when it comes to non-ideal circumstances on the course and doesn’t crack when things get tough. That’ll be key this week. He’s also 15th in good drive percentage, 31st in greens in regulation percentage, 34th in SG: APP, 36th in par four performance, 45th in average par five scoring, 49th in SG: ATG and 102nd in proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards. The one time we’ve seen Kuchar this calendar year he went T7th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Prior to that on the scoring season he made the cut in three-of-four events, highlighted by a T12th at the Fortinet Championship.


$8,000-$8,800

I continue to live in the absolute bottom with my top suggestion in each price range as we go with Erik van Rooyen ($8,000) here. The South African hasn’t had the best of starts to the year as he missed the cut at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and then withdrew from the Cadence Bank Houston Open the following week. After a two month absence from the tour however, he returned to place T7th at The American Express in a format just like this one we’ll see this week. On tour he is currently third in SG: ATG, 27th in SG: SCR, 36th in GIR%, 48th in par four performance, 51st in SG: APP, 64th in good drive percentage and 79th in average par five scoring. Also consider Ben Griffin ($8,600.) Griffin has been busy thus far this season, playing in ten tournaments. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Fortinet Championship which kicked off this current scoring season. That means he’s gone nine straight tournaments of making the cut. His best finish of the season was a T3rd at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship and more recently went T12th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Statistically speaking, he’s currently sixth on tour in par four performance, 29th in proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards, 41st in SG: APP, 67th in GIR%, 70th in average par five scoring, 77th in SG: ATG and 82nd in SG: SCR. In other words, he’s actually well above average in each of the statistical categories we’re taking into consideration this week. He’s a well rounded golfer with a lot of experience on the season.


$7,000-$7,900

The second highest scoring golfer in our module this week is Brendon Todd ($7,900.) Like Dahmen listed above, Todd too is a very well rounded golfer who ranks in the top 69th in each of the statistical categories we’re taking into consideration this week. He’s currently fourth on Tour when it comes to proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards. He’s also 25th in both par four performance and SG: ATG, 44th in SG: SCR, 45th in average par five scoring, 47th in SG: APP, 49th in good drive percentage and 69th in GIR%. Todd did miss the cut at The American Express but went T21st at the Sony Open in Hawaii the week prior. His season has been highlighted by a T7th at the CJ Cup in South Carolina and T9th at the Fortinet Championship. At +7000, Todd will receive a few dollars on my behalf. Also consider Robby Shelton ($7,800.) Shelton is good with his irons, ranking 30th on Tour in SG: APP and 44th in proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards. Shelton too is great around the green, ranking 29th on Tour in SG: ATG. Additionally he’s 40th in par four performance, 67th in SG: SCR, 94th in average par five scoring, 99th in good drive percentage and 117th in GIR%. It was just two weeks ago that Shelton took sixth at The American Express in a similar format to what we’ll see this week. He also made the cut last week at the Farmers Insurance Open and has a T10th on the season at the RSM Classic back in late November.


$6,900-

Dylan Wu ($6,600) is my first suggestion in this price range. Wu has missed the cut in two of his last three tournaments but did look decent back at The American Express with a T32nd finish. He’s currently 32nd on Tour in good drive percentage, 36th in GIR%, 52nd in SG: ATG, 63rd in proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards, 70th in average par five scoring and 111th in par four performance. Also consider Sean O’Hair ($6,600.) O’Hair has made just one cut in three tournaments on the season but did go T11th at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in the cut he did make. He’s currently tenth on tour in good drive percentage, 32nd in SG: ATG, 71st in SG: SCR, 76th in GIR%, 89th in SG: APP, 94th in average par five scoring and 101st in par four performance. Not too bad of a collection of statistics for someone in this price range.

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