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  • Writer's pictureNate (@WeKnowFantasy)

Out of the Rough: 3M Open - FRL (2023)


It’s been a few weeks since I last released a First Round Leader betting article and that was due to time restrictions. However, on the back of hitting both Brian Harman (+12000) at The Open Championship and Akshay Bhatia (+3500) at the Barracuda Championship, I figured this week was good as ever to get back into the swing of things.


Betting FRL adds a bit more excitement to your betting card. The odds are based on their outright odds, although longer. That is due to the possibilities to tie and therefore, splitting your profits.


For example, if you played $10 on Conners at the RBC Canadian Open and he was to lead after the first round alone, you would receive $350. In the event he tied with someone else, your payout would be split in half and you would receive $175. The number of golfers tied for the lead after the first round is the amount of times your payout would be divided.


With all of that being said, I’ve developed a model for FRLs that is passed on my overall model for the event, average first round scoring and then each golfer’s respective tee time (early or late) average scoring.


For in-depth breakdowns of my model and the statistical categories I took into consideration this week, visit: https://www.weknowfantasy.com/post/out-of-the-rough-3m-open-2023


Let’s get into things!


FRL Betting Card

Sungjae Im (+3300)

There’s just something about this week that has me all over Sungjae Im. He’s on my outright betting card and he’s found a place on my FRL betting card as well. He’s third in my model this week among those playing to just Tony Finau and Kevin Yu. He drew an early tee time this week where he currently averages a round of 69.61 among 36 early rounds. That puts him fourth in this field in terms of each golfer's respective early or late average relative to par. He is also second in this field to just Tony Finau in overall scoring average. Despite his recent run of poor form, Im is fourth on TOUR in par five average scoring and 19th in birdie or better percentage, just to highlight a few of the statistical categories I took into consideration this week for my overall model.


Stephan Jaeger (+5500)

Jaeger comes in tenth in my model this week of those teeing it up. Unlike Im, he drew a late tee time for the first day where he averages 69.98 over 42 recorded late rounds this season. That puts him 18th in this field in terms of first round scoring relative to par in early or late rounds. He is also fifth in this field in overall average scoring. Jaeger is not on my outright betting card but will be played in DFS on my behalf this week. He’s currently 13th on TOUR in GIR% and 20th in bogey avoidance to highlight a few key statistics he brings to the table this week.


Kevin Yu (+8000)

I just have to include Yu in as many forms of betting cards as I can. It’s for good reason though. He’s second among those playing this week in my overall model to just Finau. He’ll be joining Jaeger in the afternoon come Thursday where he currently averages a round of 68.65, placing him nearly a half-stroke better than second place Harry Hall in terms of first round scoring average relative to par. He’s also eighth in this field in overall scoring average. He is also second on TOUR in both ball striking and GIR% and is third in SG: OTT. Yu constantly checks all of the boxes each and every week. Yu is also on my outright better card at +11000.

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