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Out of the Rough: 3M Open (2022)


Another weekend with a lot of success on our end. At one point on Sunday, one of my lineups was 88th out of the 143,000-some in DraftKings’ big five-dollar tournament. Cameron Smith played spoiler to us however. I went into the final day with outrights on both Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland who were tied with a four-stroke lead. The rest was history. Due to Smith’s improbable run I missed out on both outrights and he essentially sank my top lineup that at one point had three golfers in the top three. Either way, it was another successful week for our formula and module. I sure would have liked to have hit three straight major winners this season but as it stands, we hit Justin Thomas at the PGA Championship and Matt Fitzpatrick at the U.S. Open in terms of outright betting. Our highest finisher at The Masters was a T3rd from Shane Lowry and then McIlroy’s third at The Open. We’re onto the post-major section of the PGA schedule as we take on the 3M Open.


The Open Results

Lineup 1

Justin Thomas (-4) - T53rd

Will Zalatoris (-8) - T28th

Sam Burns (-6) - T42nd

Mito Pereira (+5) - MC

Keith Mitchell - (+1) - MC


Lineup 2

Rory McIlroy (-18) - 3rd

Viktor Hovland (-14) - T4th

Tony Finau (-8) - T28th

Cameron Young (-19) - 2nd

Chris Kirk (-6) - T42nd


Lineup 3

Jon Rahm (-7) - T34th

Xander Schauffele (-10) - T15th

Sungjae Im (+4) - T81st

Keegan Bradley (+3) - MC

Emiliano Grillo (+2) - MC


TPC Twin Cities is in its fourth year within the PGA Tour rotation as the host of the 3M Open.


It’s a straightforward course that offers plenty of birdie and even eagle opportunities, baring the weather getting involved. The past three winners of the event were Cameron Champ (-15,) Michael Thompson (-19) and Matthew Wolff (-21) in the last three years.


TPC Twin Cities features 72 sand bunkers and 27 water hazards that come into play on 15 of the 18 holes as well.


Fairways play wide and landing areas off the tee are generous. This should take most of the hazards, mainly the water, out of play.


It will most likely be a birdie-fest and whoever is able to convert as many chances as possible (as easy as that sounds) will have a chance to claim victory.


The course features 11 par 4’s. Many of them are on the shorter side which will allow for plenty of birdie or eagle opportunities. However, five of the par 4’s are between 450-500 yards and that is what could come down to be the deciding factor this week.


Those who can tread water or lose strokes on these longer holes will set themselves up wonderfully heading into Sunday.


Coming off the back of The Open, none of the world’s top ten golfers will be in attendance. As well as LIV taking golfers weekly, the field is lacking the stars that we would like.


The field is headlined by the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im and Tony Finau.


As for the weather this week, at the time of writing this, weather should not be a factor. There is no rain in the forecast and temperatures will range between the mid-80’s to low 90’s across all four days. Wind too should not be a factor as it peaks at 14 miles-per-hour on Thursday and is projected to be as low as seven miles-per-hour on Saturday.


Important statistics to consider this week include Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP,) Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: PUTT,) Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT,) Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 Yards and Birdie or Better Percentage.


$10,000+

My favorite to win this week is Sungjae Im ($10,000.) He’s at the very bottom of the $10,000 price range too which will allow for a lot of lineup flexibility. Im currently is 12th on tour in SG: OTT and 13th in Par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards. He’s top 71 in all five of the statistical categories we are taking into consideration this week. Im made the cut last week at The Open after missing consecutive cuts leading into the event. However, prior to those two missed cuts he had an impressive run of making eight straight cuts with three top tens, four top 15s and six top 25s. Also consider Tony Finau ($10,500.) Finau is arguably the consensus favorite to win the event. He’s 15th on tour in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards, 17th in SG: APP, 21st in SG: OTT and 33rd in birdie or better percentage. He is below average on tour in SG: PUTT which has always been his downfall but as TPC Twin Cities features Bentgrass greens, Finau actually gains strokes on the field when putting on Bentgrass. Finau used a great final round at last week’s The Open to shoot a final round of 66 en route to a T28th finish. The week prior he went T13th at Travelers Championship. Finau did miss the cut at the U.S. Open but prior to that made seven straight cuts with two runner-up finishes at the Mexico Open at Vidanta and RBC Canadian Open He also had a T4th at the Charles Schwab Challenge.


$9,000-$9,900

Leading off this price range is Maverick McNealy ($9,300.) McNealy is actually my second favorite this week behind Im. He’s top 87 in all five statistical categories. He’s 12th in birdie or better percentage, 33rd in SG: PUTT, 35th in Par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards and 50th in SG: OTT. McNealey didn’t play at The Open but did go T16th at the Genesis Scottish Open two weeks ago. Prior to that he went T8th at the John Deere Classic. Also consider Davis Riley ($9,000.) Riley’s downfall is his current below average ranking on par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards but the rest of his game should help carry him through this week. He’s 14th in birdie or better percentage, 47th in SG: OTT, 64th in SG: APP and 73rd in SG: PUTT. Riley has also made eight straight cuts and ten of his last 11 tournaments. In his last 11 tournaments he has four top fives and seven top 15s. If he can tread water on the longer par fours, I think he could be in contention over the weekend.


$8,000-$8,900

Continuing with the trend on finding guys in the bottom of price ranges, we’ll lead off here with Nick Hardy ($8,000.) Hardy’s outright to win is at +3700 at the time of writing this and you best believe I’ll have some money there. Hardy has made five straight cuts, highlighted by a T8th at the Travelers Championship and T14th at the U.S. Open. His lowest finish of that stretch of tournaments is T35th at the RBC Canadian Open. He’s currently 13th on tour in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards, 22nd in SG: OTT, 43rd in birdie or better percentage and 62nd in SG: PUTT. You’re getting all of this at the bottom of this price range. Also consider Adam Long ($8,600.) Long has made three straight cuts on tour with a T21t at the RBC Canadian Open, T25th at the Travelers Championship and T13th at the John Deere Classic. He’s also elite on the greens where he ranks 14th on tour in SG: PUTT and to go along with that, gains strokes on the field when putting on Bentgrass. He’s also 46th in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards and 84th in SG: OTT.


$7,000-$7,900

A name that continues to make an appearance in these cheaper price ranges often is Tom Hoge ($7,100.) Hoge is very good when it comes to ball striking as he’s 21st on tour in SG: APP. He’s also 47th in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards, 54th in birdie or better percentage ad 90th in SG: OTT. Hoge has struggled a lot as of late even though we keep going back to him but the stats lineup. He’s missed six straight cuts but before that went T17th at the AT&T Byron Nelson and T9th at the PGA Championship. He of course has a win on the season with his victory at Pebble Beach. It’s a matter of time before Hoge finds his game again and this could very well be the week. Also consider Nate Lashley ($7,000.) Lashley is another name that we use often in these cheaper ranges. He’s currently 27th on tour in birdie or better percentage, 32nd in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards, 48th in SG: PUTT, 94th in SG: OTT and 109th in SG: APP. Although slightly, he also gains strokes on the field when it comes to putting on Bentgrass. Lashley has made seven cuts in his last 11 tournaments as well. In that time span he has a top ten, three top 15s and six top 25s. If he can make the cut this week, he can make some noise.


$6,900-

Now to find those hidden gems. In past weeks we found success with the likes of Kurt Kitayama at the Genesis Scottish Open who led on Sunday before Xander Schauffele ultimately went on to win. This week we’re going to go with Satoshi Kodaira ($6,700.) Kodaira is actually above average in all five of the statistical categories we’ve highlighted thus far. He’s 39th in birdie or better percentage, 78th in SG: OTT, 91st in SG: PUTT, 93rd in SG: APP and 98th in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards. He is also very good on Bentgrass greens where he gained nearly a quarter of a stroke on the field. He has also made consecutive cuts on tour with a T30th at the John Deere Classic and T27th at the Barbasol Championship. Also consider Ryan Armour ($6,900.) Armour is elite in par 4 efficiency 450-500 yards as he ranks fourth on tour. He’s also 41st in SG: OTT and 91st in SG: APP. Like Kodaira, Armour too gains strokes on the field when putting on Bentgrass. Armour is in a bit of a bad stretch with missing three straight cuts. Prior to that he made five cuts in seven events between the Corales Putacana Championship and Travelers Championship.


Strokes Gained: Proximity to Course

Strokes gained: Proximity to Course (SG: PTC) is the patented statistic developed by Lenny of the Out of the Rough Podcast. Each week, Lenny will pick a golfer local to the course to be his SG: PTC choice. Last week Lenny went with Tyrell Hatton who had a very impressive outing at The Open where he finished T11th at -11.


This week Lenny is going with Mardy Fish. Fish was born in Edina, Minnesota which is just a little over half-an-hour from TPC Twin Cities.


SG: PTC Past Results

The Honda Classic - Chase Seiffert (+1) - T25th

The Arnold Palmer Invitational - John Pak (+8) - T52nd

The Players - Billy Horschel (WD)

The Valspar Championship - Sam Ryder (-1) - MC

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play - MC

The Valero Texas Open - Adam Long (-5) - T35th

The Masters - Patrick Reed (+6) - T35th

The RBC Heritage - Brian Harman (-6) - T35th

The Zurich Classic - Jay and Billy Haas (E) - T59th

The Mexico Open - Carlos Ortiz (-5) - T51st

The AT&T Byron Nelson - Harry Higgs (-4) - MC

The PGA Championship - Talor Gooch (+1) - T20th

The Charles Schwab Challenge - Tom Hoge (+4) - MC

The Memorial Tournament - Mackenzie Hughes (+2) - T37th

The RBC Canadian Open - Adam Svensson (-6) - T21st

The US Open - Fran Quinn (+13) - MC

The Travelers Championship - Keegan Bradley (-9) - T19th

The John Deere Classic - Doug Ghim (+1) - MC

The Genesis Scottish Open - Robert MacIntyre (+5) - MC

The Open - Tyrell Hatton (-11) - T11th


One and Done

*Rules: A golfer can only be played once all season unless the chosen golfer wins the respective tournament. If the chosen golfer wins, he can be used again. We will keep track of success via monetary earnings to add value to bigger tournaments. We will track my choices for the rest of the season below.


We’re finally back in the money after Rory McIlroy went on to place third at The Open. He very well could have won the event but I’m just happy to be back on the board. This week I’ll go with Sungjae Im as he is my favorite.


Results

The Masters - Shane Lowry ($870,000)

The RBC Heritage - Adam Hadwin ($54,844)

The Zurich Classic - Marc Lesihman ($24,111.50)

The Mexico Open - Gary Woodland ($60,955)

The AT&T Byron Nelson - Sam Burns ($0)

The PGA Championship - Justin Thomas ($2,700,000)

The Charles Schwab Challenge - Mito Pereira ($246,540)

The Memorial Tournament - Xander Schauffele ($142,800)

The RBC Canadian Open - Corey Conners ($315,375)

The US Open - Matt Fitzpatrick ($3,150,000)

Travelers Championship - Joaquin Niemann ($0)

The John Deere Classic - Nate Lashley ($0)

The Genesis Scottish Open - Justin Thomas ($0)

The Open - Rory McIlroy ($933,000)

Total: $8,498,225.5


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