By: Jake Friedman
Introduction:
The PGA Tour heads over to Mexico for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Tony Finau is the defending champion here and is headlining the field this week. This is one of the weakest fields we will see in a PGA Tour event this year. Regardless, I always find this tournament enjoyable as it's a bombers paradise with a lot of birdies.
As always, please refer to Nate's article for a very in-depth breakdown of the tournament's field, course, and more!
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DFS Guide
10k Range
Tony Finau ($12,000) - It's impossible to not discuss Finau at this tournament. In his 2 appearances the past 2 years he has a T-2 and a win. He is the clear talent of this field and has been in decent form with 5 top 25 finishes in his last 7 times teeing it up. We know Finau brings elite off the tee and approach skills week in and week out. It all comes down to the putter which has been abysmal this year. I think Finau is going to turn that around this week on a course he is very comfortable on. The icing on the cake is that this is a weak field event which is the only field Finau seems to be able to take down.
Thorbjorn Olesen ($10,300) - I'm hoping to take advantage of Olesen here in his PGA Tour debut this season. Following the DPWT, we know that Olesen is an extremely well rounded golfer and is coming in on some great form. He won the last time he teed it up at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship and has a plethora of top 10 finishes leading into that. Although he has never played this tournament, his well rounded game highlighted by above average distance off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting, leads me to believe he is going to have a great week. I would be surprised if he isn't the lowest owned in this price range which makes me love the play even more.
9k Range
Patrick Rodgers ($9,700) - He's been a staple in my lineups to start the year and even after 2 bad tournaments in a row I'm not ready to give up on Rodgers yet. Before the past 2 tournaments where he finished second to last at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am and missed the cut last week at The Genesis Invitation, Rodgers had 4 straight top 25 finishes. Rodgers is coming to a course that fits his game extremely well and has the results here to back it. In 2022 he finished 10th and last year he finished T-10. I'm hoping Jaeger and Mitchell eat up some ownership which would leave Rodgers low owned.
Mark Hubbard ($9,000) - I'm turning to Hubbard here after a poor performance at the WM Phoenix Open to bounce back here at a low ownership. Hubbard is shorter off the tee but his accuracy off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting all make up for that. I mentioned 2 weeks ago in my article that Hubbard has popped with the putter and the irons in the 2 times teeing it up before which is what I'm looking for in a golfer. Although that didn't come together at the WM Phoenix Open, I have faith it can come together here in Mexico. It's also promising seeing a T-20 finish here at this event last year.
8k Range
Aaron Rai ($8,500) - Although this is not a style of course Rai would come top of mind at, I really like him in this spot. Rai is short off the tee but extremely accurate. He's also above average with the irons and around the greens. The putter is generally below PGA TOUR average but in his last 3 starts he's been even or positive with the flat stick. Not in the best of form and doesn't have the best course history (2022 T-24, 2023 missed cut) this seems like a good buy spot on Rai at a low ownership to diversify your lineups.
Justin Suh (8,300) - Turning to another projected low owned guy in Justin Sun this week. It's been a bit of a rollercoaster with Suh to start the year but he is trending in the right directing coming off a T-22 at the WM Phoenix Open. What he brings to the table each and every week is distance off the tee and the putter which are extremely important at this course. His approach is slightly below Tour average but what I love to see is him gaining just under a stroke per round at the WM Phoenix open and just under 2 strokes per round at The American Express. If we can catch Suh on a spike approach week he can be pivotal to winning a DFS contest.
7k Range
SeongHyeon Kim ($7,900) - He popped in my model this week and I'm going to put some trust into that. Kim has had a very average start to the 2024 PGA season and has a very average course history here in Mexico (T-24 in 2023). His week will come down to his approach play has he's above tour average in driving distance, around the green, and putting. Don't have much else to add here I'm just trusting the inputs of my model for this one.
Greyson Sigg ($7,200) - Another player at a low projected ownership that I think has the potential to have a good finish is Greyson Sigg. Decent course history in Mexico with a T-33 in 2022 and T-18 last year, I'm turning to Sigg to build on those finishes this year. It's been a rollercoaster with Sigg as well missing a couple of cuts and also having 2 top 20 finishes to start the 2024 season, this is the profile of a player I am looking for. When he is playing well he is popping off and getting great finishes. Sigg is pretty well rounded being either just above or just below tour average in the 5 main categories I look at, this seems like a risk I'm willing to take here.
6k Range
Sami Valimaki ($6,700) - After missing the cut in his first 2 PGA Tour appearances, Valimaki turned around and made his next 2 cuts which is promising enough for me to take a chance on him at this price. His long term statistics show he is above average in driving distance, driving accuracy, approach and putting. He struggles around the green but with the large greens at Vidanta this shouldn't be an issue. He seems to be finding his feet on the PGA Tour and what better place and field to come out and show what you're really made of.
Hayden Springer ($5,700) - 2 wins in his last 7 starts and a qualification through Q-School is impressive enough for me to take a chance on Springer here. Long off the tee and above average with the flat stick can make for a great combo here in Mexico for Springer. In his last start at the Farmers Insurance Open Springer gained just under a stroke per round off the tee and just under 3 strokes per round with the putter (no this is not a type). The 27 year old clearly has some game and has been playing some very competitive golf as of recent. At this price there isn't much to lose.
Outright Betting Card
Tony Finau +1000 Keith Mitchell +2500
Davis Thompson +3500
Maverick McNealy +6600
Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!
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