March Madness Upset Candidates (2025)

Late March into early April is the best time in all of sports. I’ll die on that hill.

We have the start of the MLB season, The Masters for golf and arguably the biggest of them all, March Madness for college basketball.

The volatility and, dare I say it, madness, that ensues across the next few weeks is what makes this event the 1.01 when it comes to annual sporting events.

What makes March Madness so wonderful is the potential for upsets, both large and small.

Each year a random school the general public has no knowledge of emerges out of the round of 64 and may even go on to make a deeper run.

These schools that most couldn’t even tell you what state they reside in capture the hearts of millions as we all love to see a true upset.

Along with the upsets comes the bragging rights of those who called them correctly in their March Madness bracket pools.

Just being able to take to social media and put it out there that you are a basketball genius in calling the upset, even if the rest of your bracket had already been busted.

Each year I develop a statistics based model to help me not only fill out my bracket but to find what teams are most likely in line for an upset.

In this article I will highlight the handful of first round matchups that I believe are in line to see such an upset.

I too will highlight a team at the end which I believe could be this year’s Cinderella story and can make a deep run into the tournament.

Without further ado, let's get into these March Madness potential upsets!

First Round Upsets

(13) Yale Bulldogs vs. (4) Texas A&M Aggies 

My dark-horse for a big first-round upset and even a run into the Sweet Sixteen is the Yale Bulldogs. The Ivy League Champions as a 13th seed will square-off with fourth seeded Texas A&M Aggies. Texas A&M fell in the second round of the SEC Tournament to the 13th seeded Texas Longhorns. Yale is led by senior guard John Poulakidas and junior forward Nick Townsend. Yale offers a rare combination of great rebounding and three-point shooting as they rank seventh in both aspects of teams in this year’s tournament. It’s also rare to see a great three-point-shooting team have great offensive efficiency as Yale ranks 14th among teams in this year’s field in that. Yale also limits the mistakes, ranking 14th in turnovers. They’re also 18th in margin-of-victory, 34th in free-throw-percentage and 36th in defensive efficiency. Their lone slight downfall is their lack of depth (48th in bench points-per-game.) The Ivy League isn’t the toughest of competition but the Bulldogs come in with the 50th strongest strength-of-schedule. The Aggies biggest strength is rebounding, as they rank second to just Saint Mary’s in that category in this year’s field. They’re also rather deep, ranking 15th in bench points-per-game and are a strong defensive unit, ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency. However, they’re not an efficient offense. They rank 60th of qualifying teams in offensive efficiency. They too are a very poor three-point shooting team, ranking 64th in three-point percentage. Texas A&M also turns the ball over at a high clip (57th in turnovers-per-game) and don’t convert at the charity stripe (61st in free-throw-percentage.) If Yale goes on a run, which they’re more than capable of, it’ll be hard for Texas A&M to play from behind. I have Yale upsetting the higher-seeded Aggies and then taking it to the Sweet Sixteen against the team we’ll discuss next. 

(12) UC San Diego Tritons vs. (5) Michigan Wolverines

The Big West Champions, UC San Diego, come into this year’s bracket as a 12th seed, set to match up with the Big Ten Champions, the Michigan Wolverines. Guard play is undoubtedly the most important aspect of any potential upset candidate and the Tritons have an impressive pairing of seniors in Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones and Tyler McGhie. Tait-Jones has averaged 19.5 points-per-game this season as running-mate McGhie averaged 16.4. What this team does better than anyone else in this year’s field (outside of Ole Miss) is protect the ball. They average just nine turnovers-per-game. Their defensive efficiency is also elite, ranking fourth among teams in this year’s tournament. I know the Big West is not the toughest of conferences but UC San Diego did see the 48th toughest (of 68 teams) strength-of-schedule. They also steam-rolled their competition, ranking fifth in this year’s field in margin-of-victory. They’re also efficient offensively (16th in offensive efficiency) and shoot the deep ball well (21st in three-point-percentage) as well as convert their free-throws (24th in free-throw-percentage.) Their downfall is their lack of depth as they rank 60th in bench points-per-game. They’re also not a great rebounding team (60th in rebounding differential.) Michigan is a much better rebounding team (18th in rebounding differential) but beyond that, they’re not an impressive team. I know they just won the Big Ten Tournament, but they rank 28th in defensive efficiency, 39th in margin-of-victory, 43rd in free-throw-percentage, 47th in three-point-percentage, 49th in both offensive efficiency and bench points-per-game. They also turn the ball over more than anyone in this field (outside of Mount St. Mary’s.) With UC San Diego avoiding turning the ball over and scoring efficiency, this screams first round upset to me. 

(12) Colorado State Rams vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies

Another classic 12-5 upset. The Rams are simply one of the hottest teams in the country. We see this time-and-time-again. A team peaking at the right time coming into March Madness and causing havoc. The Rams have that ability. They’re fresh off topping Boise State in the Mountain West Conference title game and dating back to Feb. 15th, have won ten straight games. Just three of those ten games were won by single digits, and each of those were by eight points. Led by senior guard Nique Clifford, the Rams convert their free throws (tenth in free-throw-percentage) and shoot the three-ball well (18th in three-point-percentage.) They’re also 28th in defensive efficiency, 35th in margin-of-victory, 37th in rebounding differential, 39th in bench-points-per-game, 40th in offensive efficiency and 48th in turnovers. Memphis, fresh off claiming the American Athletic Conference title over the UAB Blazers, turn the ball over (66th in turnovers) way too much and don’t convert at the free-throw-line (55th in free-throw-percentage.) They’re also 55th in bench-points-per-game, 47th in offensive efficiency, 41st in margin-of-victory, 39th in rebounding differential and 38th in defensive efficiency. 

(11) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (6) Mississippi Rebels

We’ll keep it in the South as it appears any higher seed is in jeopardy of an upset. Now, the Tar Heels first must play their way into the round-of-64. They’ll play San Diego State in a play-in game on Tuesday. I believe the Tar Heels, who fell to Duke in the ACC Championship Game, will handle San Diego State and move on to play the sixth seeded Mississippi Rebels. Per my stats-based-model, this is the closest of the games I’ll highlight in this article and if San Diego State were to win the play-in-game, I would have Mississippi topping them. However, the Tar Heels don’t do anything extremely well, but instead, do everything well. Among teams in this year’s tournament they are 20th in bench-points-per-game, 29th in turnovers-per-game, 30th in three-point-percentage, 34th in free-throw-percentage, 39th in rebounding differential, 48th in margin-of-victory and 55th in defensive efficiency. Why would I expect them to beat the Rebels? The Rebels are great with avoiding turnovers, as they are the best in that category among the 68 teams. However, they are also the worst rebounding team in this year’s field. They’re also 55th in margin-of-victory, 51st in offensive efficiency, 41st in both defensive efficiency and three-point-percentage, 33rd in bench-points-per-game and 32nd in free-throw-percentage. In the event San Diego State wins the play-in-game, disregard this. Also, the winner of this game would get one of third-seed Iowa State who will be without star Keshon Gilbert who will miss the tournament with a groin injury or the 14th seed Lipscomb. I’d favor either North Carolina or Mississippi over either of those two options in the Round of 32. 

(13) High Point Panthers vs. (4) Purdue Boilermakers 

I’m not overly confident about this one, but it’s worth mentioning, The 13 seed High Point Panthers have three players who average over 13 points-per-game in senior guard Kezza Giffa (14.8 points,) senior guard D’Maurian Williams (13.5 points) and junior forward Kimani Hamilton (13.4 points.) The Panthers are one of the most efficient offenses in this year’s tournament (second in offensive efficiency.) They’re also rather deep (tenth in bench-points-per-game) and convert their free-throws (12th in free-throw-percentage.) They’re also 14th in margin-of-victory, 16th in turnovers, 18th in three-point-percentage and 27th in rebounding differential. Now, they are not a strong defensive unit, ranking 54th in defensive efficiency. However, Purdue is worst defensively (62nd in defensive efficiency.) This game will be a high scoring affair as Purdue ranks fourth in three-point-percentage and tenth in offensive efficiency. Purdue also is not deep, as they rank 58th in bench-points-per-game and are not a good rebounding team, ranking 50th in rebounding differential. They are also 41st in margin-of-victory and 40th in free-throw-percentage.

Team to Make a Run

(6) BYU Cougars

I have BYU slotted in the Elite Eight. They open against VCU which may be their toughest matchup of this run I’ll highlight. I have BYU slotted just one spot higher than BYU in my rankings. I’ll touch more on the VCU Rams later. From there, I project the Cougars to get Wisconsin in the Round-of-32. Wisconsin is the best team in terms of free-throw-percentage in this field but also are not deep (57th in bench-points-per-game.) They do not rebound well (46th in rebounding differential) and are poor on the defensive end (46th defensive efficiency.) From there, BYU would collide with the second-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama does a lot of things well as they are third in bench-points-per-game, eighth in offensive efficiency, and ninth in rebounding differential. However, they are 60th in turnovers, 58th in defensive efficiency and 50th in free-throw-percentage. That’s where I predict the Cougars’ run to end, as they’d get the Duke Blue Devils in the Elite Eight.

Now, onto what makes me believe the Cougars are destined for a deep run. They’re one of the deepest teams in the tournament (fifth in bench-points-per-game.) Depth is crucial as this tournament is a grind-fest. They’re also 11th in rebounding differential, 12th in three-point-percentage, 13th in offensive efficiency, 20th in margin-of-victory and 41st in defensive efficiency. Their downfalls come with free-throw shooting and turnovers as they rank 55th and 53rd respectively. 

Junior forward Richie Saunders leads the charge as he averages 16 points-per-game with freshman guard Egor Demin adding 10.3 points-per-game. Saunders shoots the three-ball at a clip of 43.3-percent as well. Junior Keba Keita is a force in the paint, grabbing 7.9 rebounds-per-game while adding one blocked-shot-per-game. He too averages 7.1 points-per-game.

(11) VCU Rams

Now, I did mention that the Cougars’ toughest test may be their opening matchup against VCU and in the event VCU wins that ball-game, I would have them advancing to the Elite Eight as well for all of the reasons listed above about the opposition. 

BYU just tops VCU in my model. The Rams are one of the best defensive units in this year’s field (fifth in defensive efficiency.) They’re also eighth in margin-of-victory, 19th in rebounding differential, 24th in offensive efficiency, 26th in bench-points-per-game, 28th in free-throw-percentage and 33rd in turnovers. If there were to be a weakness to their game it would be three-point shooting as they rank 48th in three-point-percentage. 

VCU has a duo of guards who both average 15.1 points-per-game in seniors Max Shulga and Joe Bamislie. They have two other guards who score over ten points-per-game in seniors Phillip Russell (10.6) and Zeb Jackson (10.4) I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, guard play wins games in March Madness.