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  • mtwatkins1992

Locks and Keys

Welcome guys to my first sports line article of the season!

This series will feature both college and pro football lines. Throughout the season I'm going to keep a running tally, shooting for a 60% success rate. That might not seem like the loftiest of goals, but a winning record isn't easily achieved.

Odds Makers are good at their jobs, and football can be a bit unpredictable if you've never watched a game before. My first article is a little behind the 8-ball, as I've already played a few early season games.

I'm currently sitting at 2-1 on the season. My first wager on the year was Oregon +4 vs. Auburn on a neutral field. Go back and watch the last 20 seconds of that game and you'll see why 60% is a solid success rate. I managed to rally back winning my next two wagers, taking Houston +22 at Oklahoma, and the Green Bay Packers +3 at Chicago. Not a bad first week, seconds away from 3-0.

Lets see if we can keep this going. Look forward to every week's Tuesday recap breaking down how the week went.

Now, onto week twp of the college football season, and week one of the NFL season. The wait is finally over. Tennessee -3.5 vs. BYU I'm looking for the Vols to bounce back after an embarrassing first game loss on their home turf last week vs. Georgia State. This line I feel is heavily skewed due to that game. If Tennessee won that game handily, as many expected, this would easily be a double digit spread. I think this team is angry, with a big chip on their shoulder, locked in on making a statement. Prediction: Tennessee wins 34-16. Texas +6.5 vs. LSU LSU is an SEC powerhouse with the talent to up-end any team out there. They certainly took care of business last week, winning by 52. Albeit against Georgia Southern. The Longhorns however are a different animal. They, too, had a successful first outing, easily handling LA Tech by 31 at home. I'm a huge Sam Ehlinger believer, and coach Tom Herman has this team headed in the right direction. Last season, Texas football was almost back. I think they're a legitimate playoff contender in 2019. Prediction: Texas wins 28-27

Fresno St. +3 vs. Minnesota Actually surprised to see Fresno St. not favored in this one. They're home, coming off a tough loss at USC last week. They hung tough against a big time program, losing by one score on the road in one of the most hostile environments in sports. The Bulldogs have some serious grit, and no quit. Meanwhile, Minnesota won their opener by one score despite being home against a much lesser opponent in San Diego State. Prediction: Fresno St. wins 26-17 Miami Dolphins +6.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens Probably my least popular pick, most people are on the Lamar Jackson bandwagon, and Miami is widely expected to be the worst team in the NFL. I don't disagree that Miami is going to have a really rough year. They're depleted of talent on almost every level, and after last week's blockbuster trade, many accuse them of being in full tank mode. I just don't believe tanking exists in the NFL. I think Baltimore struggles offensively early in the season, and Fitzpatrick has a little magic early before the wheels fall off in a few weeks. Prediction: Baltimore wins 22-20 San Francisco 49ers +1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Another spread I'm a bit puzzled by. Tampa is home, and that matters, but this is a potential playoff team coming to town and there's just too many holes on the Buccaneer roster. Many are projecting them to have one of the league's worst defenses, along with a sub-par offensive line. On the flip side, San Fran has their golden boy quarterback back and healthy, some young, promising talent on the outside, and a defensive front four with the potential to be scary good. I'm expecting them to find holes in the defense consistently, while making life in the pocket very difficult for Winston. Prediction: 49ers Win 33-24

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