By: Jake Friedman
The PGA Tour heads over to Torrey Pines for this weeks Farmers Insurance Open. Torrey Pines is comprised of 2 courses, the easier North Course and the difficult South Course. As this has been a U.S. Open venue in the past, this is going to be a tough challenge for the players this week compared to the opening few birdie-fests.
As always, please refer to Nate's article for a very in-depth breakdown of the tournament's field, course, and more!
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Patrick Cantlay ($10,500) - A player who needs no introduction, it should come as no surprise that Cantlay profiles really well here. Cantlay is above average in the 5 main statistical categories I look at, which includes, driving distance, driving accuracy, approach, around the green, and putting. Cantlay is also a California native who tends to play well in his home state. His last appearance at this course was the 2021 US Open where he placed T-15. I'm hoping we can get a bit of a discounted ownership on Cantlay this week after his disastrous 76 on Sunday last week at The American Express.
Collin Morikawa ($10,200) - Another player who doesn't need an introduction, Morikawa profiles perfectly for Torrey Pines. Morikawa is also above average in the 5 main statistical categories but where he pops is with his long irons which will play to be important this week. Another California guy who is coming in with incredible form and amazing course history with a 3rd here last year and a T-4 at the 2021 US Open. All the signs are pointing to another top finish for Morikawa this week.
Tony Finau ($9,300) - The player with arguably the best course history here, I couldn't help but write up Finau this week. Finishing T-20 or better in 7 of his 10 times teeing it up here, there's something about this course that Finau has figured out. As always with Finau, his approach and around the green game are top tier and his ceiling will be determined by the putter. If he can get the putter hot despite his ugly looking toe-up form, I'm expecting Finau to add another great finish to his resume at Torrey Pines.
Min Woo Lee ($9,100) - My first click in the outright market, I'm super excited to play Min Woo Lee this week. Min Woo is elite in distance off the tee, around the green, and with the putter. Those are 3 of the 4 most important aspects you need to succeed here. His ceiling will be determined by his approach play. This seems like the perfect type of course for Min Woo Lee to showcase his skillset and win his first PGA Tour event.
Sahith Theegala ($8,700) - My second click in the outright market this week, I'm also excited to play Sahith Theegala this week. Once again I'm going back to a California kid. Theegala has great course history here with a T-25 in 2022 and a T-4 last year in 2023. Theegala has a similar profile to Min Woo where he is above average in driving distance, around the green, and with the putter. What he adds is also an above average approach player which can prove to be important this week. I would love nothing more than for Theegala to get over the finish line here at Torrey Pines for his second PGA Tour victory.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,500) - I'm plugging my nose and going to Hideki here at the mid 8k range. Similar to his course form leading into this event last year, it was nothing to write home about. That didn't stop Matsuyama from placing T-9. He has a similar profile to Finau where he is elite on approach and around the green. His ceiling will be determined by how much the putter cooperates.
Luke List ($7,800) - At this price point, I'm happy to take the 2022 champion in my DFS lineups. He's proven he can win at this course and also has a T-10 in 2021 and a T-25 in 2023. List hits the ball far off the tee and is above average on approach. Where he struggles is with the putter, but those days may be behind him as he has gained in 6 of his last 8 starts with the flat stick. This seems like a great opportunity to fire List back up into your lineups.
Ryan Fox ($7,500) - Another player I am plugging my nose on this week. Fox is as hit or miss as they come. I'm willing to take a chance on him this week as he profiles extremely well at Torrey Pines. Fox is very long off the tee and is above average with the putter. His week will come down to the approach play and around the green play, both of which he is just barely above tour average. Driving accuracy for Fox is his pitfall but since that isn't important this week this is an opportunity for Fox to have a great finish
Will Gordan ($6,900) - I was on Gordon last week so I'm going back to him this week at a course that profiles much better for him. Gordon is long off the and below average in every other major statistical category. That being said, if you take out his Sunday 78 last week, Gordon had a very nice first 3 rounds. I'm hoping he can make the cut and put together a better weekend than he did last week.
Vince Whaley ($6,800) - My preferred play in this range, I think Whaley is primed up for a decent finish this week at Torrey Pines. Whaley is above average in driving distance, around the green, and putting which is the mold I used in some of my previous selections. Similar to those, his week will be determined by the iron play. He profiles exactly as I want for this course and coming off of a T-34 finish last week, I'm looking to Whaley to improve his form and finish T-20 this week.
Outright Betting Card
My outright card is still a work in progress at the moment. I've locked in the below 3 bets but please give me a follow on X @THEJakeFriedman or join the Out of the Rough Discord channel (both linked above) for my full betting card this week!
Min Woo Lee +3300
Sahith Theegala +4000
Luke List +8000
As always, best of luck this week in all your action and please remember to bet responsibly!