Don’t look now, but TB12 and the Bucs have added another piece to what already looked to be a formidable offense in Tampa Bay.
I mean it’s no real surprise that a former top-five pick coming off a year with 1600+ yards from scrimmage got scooped up so quickly, but man, do the rich get richer.
While it may take some time for this backfield situation to shakeout, the move will cause a ripple across the fantasy landscape in Central Florida.
Considering he is on a one-year deal and playing for a contract, I expect Fournette to work hard on reshaping his locker room relationships in a more positive manner.
With that said, I do not predict him to become a bell cow for this offense in what looks to be more of an runningback by committee (RBC) with Ronald Jones and company.
Bruce Arians' offense ranked just 14th in rushing attempts in 2019 (best finish: ninth in six years as head coach) and even in his best season, Fournette averaged just 4.3 yards-per-carry (YPC.)
While I do expect him to take over as the lead back in this offense, it would be a stretch to think he will repeat the 76 receptions on 100 targets of 2019.
The stronger expectation would be that this shapes up much like last year (Jones and Peyton Barber) with Fournette receiving near 60-percent of the carries and Rojo coming in around the 30-percent mark. Passing down work should be split across the RB room, dependent on no further roster moves.
The real value in this transaction will be within the red zone where he should get the lion’s share of carries within goal-to-go situations.
Prediction
Team: 430 carries (approximately five-percent increase from 2019 based with Brady under center.)
Fournette: 1,100 yards, 7 touchdowns, 40 receptions, 300 yards, 2 touchdowns – RB2 value
Jones: 550 yards, 4 touchdowns, 20 receptions, 150 yards, 2 touchdowns
Note: Prediction is Ke'Shawn Vaughn to take more of a redshirt season.