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Dynasty Profile: Denzel Mims


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-draft-2020-baylor-wr-denzel-mims-reveals-the-teams-that-have-talked-to-him-in-conference-calls/

We’ve covered a lot of the Class of 2020 rookie running backs and have only tackled one receiver thus far in this Dynasty Profiles series in Jalen Reagor.


Now, we’ll take a look at the new New York Jets’ weapon, Denzel Mims, who has one of the clearest paths to fantasy success early on.


First off, let’s just put it out there that no receiver is going to have a fantastic season under Adam Gase. However, Adam Gase won’t survive beyond this season so if you missed out on getting Mims now, you may be able to buy him cheap at the end of this season. Just saying.


What really helps set Mims apart is that he had constant success in college. He didn’t have a big junior or senior year that really pushed him into the pros.


He’s posted two 60-plus reception seasons in the Big 12 and had a third season with 55 receptions.


Over the last three seasons he totaled 182 receptions, 2,901 yards and 28 touchdowns.

Now, where does he fit in the Jets’ offense?


https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28948485/source-robby-anderson-panthers-reach-2-year-deal

Comparing him to the newly departed Robby Anderson, they’re both 6-foot-3 and have similar 40-yard-dash times with Mims at 4.38 and Anderson at 4.36. Their 20 yard splits were identical as well.


I guess we can assume that in an offense that lost 183 targets and 50.2-percent of all air yards from a season ago, Mims will step into that Robby Anderson void.


Anderson posted a line of 52-779-5 a season ago. As Sam Darnold missed three games, if we removed the three games without Darnold from Anderson’s line and averaged out a 16-game season, his line goes up to 54-826-5.


From 2018 to 2019, using 16-game averages, Darnold had 6-percent more attempts, 12.5-percent more completions, five-percent more yards and 10.5-percent more touchdowns.


If we use those same percentages to project a line for 2020, Darnold will post a line of 378-576, 3,919 yards and 26 touchdowns. This would be an increase of 42 more completions, 197 more yards and three more touchdowns.


Last season, 10-percent of Darnold’s completions were to Anderson. Ten-percent more completions to Anderson would have been 59 receptions. Additionally, 32-percent of Darnold’s passing touchdowns were to Anderson. This would give Anderson an additional two touchdowns per season, putting his total to eight.


https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/after-tom-brady-s-departure-sam-darnold-vaults-to-a-surprising-position

As Anderson averaged 15.25-yards-per-reception with Darnold at quarterback, at 59 receptions, he would have had 900 receiving yards.


A final line of 59-900-8 would have put him tied for WR27 with 197 fantasy points in 2019. This is with Gase as the head coach as well.


This is the type of production we can expect to see out of Mims in the future.


He’s not going to be a top ten, 15 or probably not even a top 20 fantasy wide receiver regularly, but he’s going to be a top 30 guy for years to come.


He’s currently being drafted as the 2.04 in dynasty rookie drafts and outside the top 80 of wide receivers in dynasty startups. That’s insane value.


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