Dynasty Marketplace - Week 2
As an avid member of the dynasty community, it is important to realize that like the stock market, dynasty fantasy football is a long-term commitment, but values fluctuate on a daily basis. In this weekly series, I will analyze any and all trades that have occurred in my dynasty leagues, as well as discussing significant pieces of news that do not come up in the trade analysis. If you would like trades to be reviewed in this column, please DM details to @williamurion on Twitter (include league format, trade date – in case news broke before/after the trade, all pieces of the trade and any other important league features.)
1. 14 Team PPR Dynasty (QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, 2FLX) David Johnson (RB, HOU) vs. 2022 1st & 2022 2nd
This is clearly an owner taking advantage of the David Johnson showcase – looking great coming off an injured season, after being mocked as part of the trade for DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans clearly want to feature Johnson. He looked great in the game, but he’s also old, so getting a first and a second is buying at his ceiling (and probably above it.) Verdict: 2022 1st & 2022 2nd
2. 12 Team PPR Dynasty (QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, 3FLX)
James Robinson (RB, JAX) vs. 2021 2nd Another owner looking to sell a cheap asset that has appreciated with few prospects of gaining future value. Robinson may be able to help in a flex spot this year, but the odds of being the 2021 starting RB are pretty slim. I’d personally be looking to acquire Ryquell Armstead cheaply before he returns to play. Verdict: 2021 2nd
3. 12 Team PPR Superflex Dynasty, Tight End Premium: 1.5 PPR (QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, 2FLX, 1SF)
Emanuel Sanders & Zack Moss vs. Brandon Aiyuk This trade was completed prior to Aiyuk’s hamstring injury in preseason. The value seemed very close; and reviewing the rosters, it strengthened positions of weakness for each team. The team receiving Moss needed additional runningback depth, and the team receiving Aiyuk needed wide receiver depth with future upside. Verdict: Tie Note: After the Aiyuk injury, the Moss side won the trade slightly, however the values don’t change much for short term injuries in dynasty.
4. 12 Team PPR Superflex Dynasty, Tight End Premium: 1.5 PPR (QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, 2FLX, 1SF) Blake Jarwin & Dwayne Haskins vs. Tedy Bridgewater & 2021 2nd
This trade was completed prior to the Week 1 games. The team acquiring Jarwin had O.J. Howard as a starting tight end, and decided that they would gamble on the unproven Haskins in order to improve to Jarwin at tight end. Unfortunately, after the trade, Jarwin is out for the year with a torn ACL. Verdict: Tie Note: After the Jarwin injury, the Bridgewater side wins the trade, as they received a quarterback upgrade and a 2021 second round pick.
5. 12 Team PPR Superflex Dynasty, Tight End Premium: 1.5 PPR (QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, 3FLX, 1SF) Antonio Gibson vs. A.J. Brown This trade immediately stirred controversy, as managers questioned the rationale behind it. The Gibson recipient however, believes in Gibson, and feels that A.J. Brown is overrated. I’ll have to disagree at this point, as proven production and career length will favor A.J. Brown, and neither player is a significantly more athletic player than the other. Verdict: A.J. Brown
6. 12 Team PPR Superflex Dynasty, Tight End Premium: 1.5 PPR (QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, 3FLX, 1SF) Julio Jones & Mark Ingram vs. Aaron Jones One team looking to buy years at the runningback position by acquiring Aaron Jones, while the other is looking to cover two positions with solid production in the current year while younger depth develops. It is a relatively even trade value wise, although there are more question marks surrounding Aaron Jones’ future than I would like. While Jones would get selected first in a startup draft, it would probably only be by half a round. I’ll gladly take Ingram as a toss-in for that “drop” in production (I think Julio will be the more valuable asset over the next 2 years.) Verdict: Julio Jones & Mark Ingram
7. 12 Team PPR Dynasty (QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, 2FLX, DST, K) Michael Thomas & Darrynton Evans vs. Tyler Lockett, Zach Ertz & James Robinson This is how you take advantage of injury dips. The Michael Thomas owner has a current contender, but needed immediate production replacement. A high ankle sprain opened the door for this type of offer, which is a steal for the Thomas recipient in a PPR dynasty format. By mid-season, Thomas will be back to a consensus top two wide receiver, and Lockett and Ertz have no room to grow in value. Verdict: Michael Thomas & Darryton Evans
8. As a final note, I’ll throw in a list of players to sell high and players to buy low
a. Sell High
i. Raheem Mostert – Take away his long touchdown reception, and was it really that strong of a performance? Jerick McKinnon ate into his workload on a day where Tevin Coleman was limited by air quality issues. This is more of a committee than it seems.
ii. Nyheim Hines – Hines will put up solid production this year, especially in PPR leagues. However, no one expected anywhere near a top four RB finish. Sell now, while you can still claim that this will be his role moving forward. Expect to see other Colts become more involved as the season progresses.
iii. David Johnson – He’s old, we’re not sure how good his team will be, and he just came out in an island game looking great. This is the perfect opportunity to sell, as EVERYONE was watching the first game back. If he has a bad performance, the doubters will come out of the woodwork, so strike while the iron is hot.
iv. Josh Jacobs – This is more dependent on HOW HIGH you can sell. If you can get an RB4 price-tag for Jacbos, by all means, do it. We saw encouraging work in the pass game, and a huge day on the ground. However, it was against the worst defense in the league. Tougher sledding is coming, and remember – Jacobs scored every 2019 touchdown in Raiders wins.
b. Buy Low
i. Nick Chubb – This seems obvious, as he was outshined by Kareem Hunt, who was also recently extended. The Browns got routed by the Ravens, and there was no point pounding the ball with Chubb. Expect a much bigger and more effective workload in Week 2, so if you can scoop him up cheap before Thursday, it may be your last chance.
ii. Austin Ekeler - Do we really think a player who caught 90 balls last year is going to end up with 16 targets this year? It was a bad game for the Chargers, who are going to have some bumps along the way. However, Ekeler will likely have a larger share of the rushing work than last year, and his pass game role is secure, even if that pie is shrinking moving from Rivers to Taylor.
iii. Michael Thomas – In dynasty, this is a golden opportunity, especially if you aren’t contending this year. In redraft, if you can risk working the waiver wire to cover for a multi-week absence, I would absolutely do it to have Thomas on my team for the playoff stretch. While high ankle sprains can linger, the three-week IR rule this year makes that a likely scenario, and provides a solid time-frame for Thomas to heal.
iv. D.J. Moore – Despite a mediocre day, it was evident he is their top receiving threat, he led in targets and air yards, and just wasn’t as efficient as usual. Expect a bounce back from D.J. Moore, and grab any profit you can while you can get him below his 2020 draft cost.
ii. Jonathan Taylor – Value him as an RB1 moving forward. It may take another week or two for him to really hit his stride and take over the backfield, but while folks were concerned about splitting work with Mack due to talent, people were not afraid of Hines. Why should that be the case now? He should now be the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, so don’t be afraid to send offers that seem to “overpay” based on what he did in Week 1. He’s going to explode.