Draft Busts: Derrius Guice
Time for a new series, this time we are talking about draft busts. What a draft bust means, is that you draft a certain player at their ADP but they seriously under performed throughout the season. One player in mock drafts is still going decently high, mostly based on his seemingly pure and raw talent. His name is Derrius Guice, running back of the Washington Redskins.
Guice was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft out of LSU. He was dominant during his three years there, hence why Washington took him as their next star RB. Going into his rookie season wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows. Unfortunately for the Redskins, during his first pre-season game, Guice tore his ACL.
Now you would think that since he tore his ACL almost a year ago he will be fine and totally worth this draft position. Fantasy Pros ADP for him is currently at 64 and in a standard 12-man league this puts him in about round 6 in half-point PPR formats.
Back in April of 2019, not so good news broke about Guice’s recovery. Adam Schefter of ESPN had recently stated that Guice’s injury is “coming along a little bit slower than some people would like." New updates also on Profootball talk as of July 11th adds that Guice suffered a hamstring injury and may miss the start of the training camp.
The Redskin camp might not have said much about his injuries but the moves they made have screamed that Guice isn’t ready yet, or maybe ever. First off, they resigned hall-of-fame-to-be running back Adrian Peterson to a two-year deal. I don’t think they would bring back AP if Guice was ready to go. Adrian Peterson had a very quiet, but good, season last year and he recently made a comment that he wants to rush for 2000 yards this year. If he is doing that, what is Guice going to do then? My guess is that Peterson and Guice will split most of the 1st and 2nd down rushes.
Secondly, the Redskins haven’t released Chris Thompson as of yet. You may think why would they? Thompson has value as the teams’ third-down back and will be healthy coming into the new season, but how are they going to divide the carries between him, Guice, and Peterson?
The Redskins are going to be behind a lot this season, as they aren’t expected to be a high scoring offense. If Thompson is on the field during most of the second half of games than that will surely limit Guice’s ability this year.
Last but not least, they drafted Bryce Love in the 4th round of the 2019 draft. This might seem more of a low-risk-and-high-reward pick. If Bryce came out in the 2018 draft, he might have been a first-round pick if he declared for the draft. I think the Redskins use that pick, as a precaution for Guice if he isn’t able to regain form.
I’m not saying Guice is a bust as an NFL player, as he could still have a very good career but for fantasy this season there is a lot against him. If Guice is still there in the double-digit rounds it’s okay if you want to take a swing at him. Even if you fully believe in his potential, my advice is to lean away as he could be a huge headache for you, sitting on your bench all season. If you take him where he is currently going at his ADP then by the end of the season, he could end up being your draft bust.