By: Jake Friedman
The PGA Tour stays in California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The weather is going to play a pivotal factor this week as the forecast for this week is nasty.
As always, please refer to Nate's article for a very in-depth breakdown of the tournament's field, course, and more!
If you like the content Nate and myself post, please feel free to join our free discord channel where we have a community of 100+ people who love to discuss all aspects of golf! Click the button below for a link to join!
Please give me a follow on X @THEJakeFriedman, I constantly post updates and interesting golf content that comes across my feed that you might find interesting or helpful. Any and all support is greatly appreciated!
Rory McIlroy ($11,500) - This is a steep price to pay especially with Scottie Scheffler $100 cheaper, but I will be playing Rory this week. Due to the high price, I'm expecting Rory to be the lowest or second lowest owned in this price range. All aspects of Rory's game are incredible outside of driving accuracy. It's rare we see him at this event as he usually plays over on the DPWT to start the year, but his last appearance which was the 2019 U.S. Open he finished T-9. He also won the last tournament he tee'd it up at. With inclement weather in the forecast, Rory has proven he can play well in windy and rainy conditions. I'll be turning to a low owned Rory to headline a few of my lineups this week.
Viktor Hovland ($10,200) - Unlike the ownership route I took with Rory, I think Hovalnd will be pretty high owned but for a great reason. Personally, when I think of players who can handle windy and rainy conditions, Hovland is either the first or second player that comes to my mind depending on the day with the likes of Joaquin Niemann. His game is also extremely well rounded as he is above tour average in the 5 main statistical categories I look at (distance off the tee, accuracy off the tee, approach, around the greens, and putting). He placed T-13 here last year to top it off. I can't help but to turn to Hovland this week.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,700) - Coming off of 2 very disappointing weekends, I'm turning to Cantlay here and hoping for a little bit of an ownership discount. The weekends have crushed Cantlay to start the year but what better place to have a weekend run and get right than at a course in your home state that you have great finishes at in the past. In his last 3 appearances at Pebble Beach, Cantlay has placed T-11, T-3, and T-4. He is another player that is above average in the 5 main statistical categories I look at. It seems like this is a great get right spot for Cantlay at hopefully a bit of a discounted ownership.
Collin Morikawa ($9,100) - Let me start this off by saying this man cost me hundreds, if not thousands of dollars last week in DFS. His Friday meltdown to miss the cut cost my Pavon/Jaeger build a 6/6. As much as I want to never play him again, I'm turning to him again this week with the hope that he can make it right. Morikawa is a California native whose only appearance at this course was at the 2019 U.S. Open where he placed T-35. Like every week with Collin it'll come down to the putter since he is very accurate off the tee and one of the best iron players on tour. Fool me once shame on you, but hopefully he doesn't fool me twice.
Jason Day ($8,400) - Day was one of the more popular golfers I've seen to start the year and it was justified with how he started the season in Hawaii. Since coming to California it's been a tough start for Day finishing T-34 at The American Express and MC at the Farmers Insurance Open. As people who backed him those past 2 weeks drift away, I think this is the perfect spot to get in on Day. His course history here is expansive and impressive with 14 appearances of which 10 were T-20 or better. Another player who is above tour average in the 5 statistical categories I look at, this seems like a place despite his form that he feels at home and gets his game right. I think he will garner a decent amount of ownership, but far less than we would've seen if he kept his run of form from Hawaii.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,200) - Another name that comes to mind when it comes to playing in the wind and rain, to get a premier player like Fitzpatrick at this price point feels like a no brainer. Similar to Rory's player profile, Fitzpatrick is above tour average in everything besides driving accuracy. His results at Pebble beach have been a mixed bag, but he does have a T-6 in 2022 and a T-12 at the 2019 U.S. Open. We haven't seen much of Fitzpatrick this season but I'm ready to take a chance on him at this price point given the circumstances.
Sahith Theegala ($7,900) - I'm turning to low owned Sahith Theegala this week in this range. With plenty of popular options above and below him, I think he will be the forgotten one. Theegala is a California native who I saw on Instagram practicing at Pebble Beach before his rounds last week at Torrey Pines. Theegala is above average in everything besides driving accuracy. What I love about him is his ability to get the irons going in and instant and to get the putter red hot. This seems like a perfect buy low spot on Theegala.
Nick Taylor ($7,200) - The 2020 winner at this tournament, I'm looking for Taylor to get continue his course form this week. After his win in 2020, Taylor has a T-39, T-14, and T-20 at this tournament. Taylor has had an up and down start to the year but similar to Jason Day, I'm looking for a place he feel comfortable at to get himself back into form. Taylor is above average in all categories outside of driving distance which shouldn't play much of a factor this week. I think he will garner a decent amount of ownership, but at this price I'm happy to join in on him
Patrick Rodgers ($6,900) - After a great start to the 2024 season, I think Rodgers at this price point is a great DFS play. T-14 at the Sentry, T-24 at the Sony, and T-9 at the Farmers last week is about all you can ask for from someone in the 6k range. Similar to many others I've written up this week, he is above tour average in everything besides driving accuracy. Although his course history here is pretty abysmal missing the cut in his last 4 appearances here, he did have a T-8 back in 2018. I'm going to bank on his great start to the season and look for him to continue that here at Pebble Beach this week.
Kurt Kitayama ($6,600) - One of, if not my favorite play of the week, I'm turning to Kurt Kitayama here. He won an elevated event last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He is also a great player in the wind and rain. Kitayama has had a very low-key start to the 2024 season with a T-29 at the Sentry and a T-24 at the Sony. He also has decent course history at Pebble Beach with a T-18 in 2020, MC in 2022, and T-29 in 2023. Kitayama is above average when it comes to driving distance, approach, and around the green. It'll come down to the flat stick for Kitayama, but seeing his recent form coupled with his course form I think this is a great spot for him this week.
Outright Betting Card
Beau Hassler +7000
Sahith Theegala +8000 Adam Hadwin +10000
Kurt Kitayama +15000
I look to add a couple more bets to the card as the week progresses!
As always, good luck in all your action this week and please remember to bet responsibly!